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1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

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NAM looks different at H5 especially with the shortwave in the southwest. Don't know what effect that'll have on the rest of the run.

 

Yeah the NAM is stronger with the southern portion of the western system as it comes ashore in N California. Could strengthen the S Plains low.

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Handling the western system differently. Shows there is still quite a bit of uncertainty

yes agreed, but i still don't like how that northern stream isn't digging that much. Could be a timing thing in comparing the runs. You need that to dig so it raises the hgts along the coast so a more northerly track can occur.

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The southern piece of energy never leaves California.

yea, you want that to come out. Like Brett said when its held back like thats its a weaker solution. Anyways, its the nam, could it be right yes, but I wouldn't place my cards on it till i see the rest of the 0z suite. Ask sne how their 4-8 snowstorm worked out yesterday that it was predicting.

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This system reminds of Kentucky basketball this year it keeps getting worse and worse. :bag:  :axe: Very disorganized. Southern energy remains in the west still and the northern piece is slower. I think Monday is the best chance for any light snow/mix now with overrunning ahead of the warm-up. I'm getting ahead of the trend and throwing in the towel minus some snow showers for Friday. Of course it's me and not the office forecast. 

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This system reminds of Kentucky basketball this year it keeps getting worse and worse. :bag:  :axe: Very disorganized. Southern energy remains in the west still and the northern piece is slower. I think Monday is the best chance for any light snow/mix now with overrunning ahead of the warm-up. I'm getting ahead of the trend and throwing in the towel minus some snow showers for Friday. Of course it's me and not the office forecast. 

 

That event is also iffy, it would rely on that southern stream disturbance not dampening as it comes east, if it holds up with the high we'll have in place for overrunning something could happen.

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