LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 fri afternoon, done by midnight We could still make out pretty decent all layers cold enough to support all snow and we did see how fast we got lastnights accumulations. I still like this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 only thing I've given up on is this being a 'major' storm. looks merely avg to my old eyes...2-4" maybe give or take an inch either side. people need to keep their expectations realistic. This isn't a pattern that will produce a bomb of more than a 8 or 10 inches. We will get snow on friday either from the northern storm or the southern one, should still snow. Could be an inch could be 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 id say you almost have to halve the qpf here... DP's are bone dry... -5 degrees @ 74hrs before the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'll put my faith in the NAM and its half inch of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'll put my faith in the NAM and its half inch of liquid. Half the half to have .25 means a nice 3-6, I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 id say you almost have to halve the qpf here... DP's are bone dry... -5 degrees @ 74hrs before the storm.. Yesterday worked out pretty good for bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 My expectations have always been low with this system due to the +NAO keeping things zipping along....sorry to keep harping on the ao indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 people need to keep their expectations realistic. This isn't a pattern that will produce a bomb of more than a 8 or 10 inches. We will get snow on friday either from the northern storm or the southern one, should still snow. Could be an inch could be 3-6 so Tom, 1"-6" is ur call ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 18Z runs will be HUGE ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 so Tom, 1"-6" is ur call ? yup except coating in quakertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Agree Tom....folks have sure grown spoiled. I need to post my stat from last year on how many years we went without a storm greater than 6" (I have to look it back up) but I think it was from 1967 to 1978 (I was 13 years old when I experience my first 6" snowstorm living in Philadelphia!) 3 to 6 is a good storm - to your point this is not over. I still expect a significant "plowable" event of greater than 4" for many - followed by cold - good times for snow lovers! people need to keep their expectations realistic. This isn't a pattern that will produce a bomb of more than a 8 or 10 inches. We will get snow on friday either from the northern storm or the southern one, should still snow. Could be an inch could be 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I suspect a slow north trend in the coming days as the Pacific wave becomes more realized. The trends today have incorporated more influence from the exiting PV. I think the E NJ-E MA zone is still in the game for significant snowfall. Can't wait to watch this unfold 30 miles to the west, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I suspect a slow north trend in the coming days as the Pacific wave becomes more realized. The trends today have incorporated more influence from the exiting PV. I think the E NJ-E MA zone is still in the game for significant snowfall. Can't wait to watch this unfold 30 miles to the west, haha. regardless it will be your largest snowfall of the season. Only have to beat, whats 1.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 regardless it will be your largest snowfall of the season. Only have to beat, whats 1.5? I think it was 2. something (2.3 inches maybe) in 11/6 but that definitely didn't feel like over 2 inches because of how wet it was. Last night was the second largest of the season with 1.1 inches. Ratios will become a key aspect as we get closer to the event, too. Also, for our southern folks (Cape May-DE-E MD), pay attention 3-9z Thu with the first clipper. Decent MPV anomalies showing up again in this period with strong cyclonic vorticity advection. There could be a few embedded "ground whiteners" in the cloud deck/scattered flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A point to ponder if the more muted solution comes to pass. They have been placing dropsondes in the Pacific around that offshore system and they have been incorporated into the GFS. I don't think they get into the Euro (DTK?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A point to ponder if the more muted solution comes to pass. They have been placing dropsondes in the Pacific around that offshore system and they have been incorporated into the GFS. I don't think they get into the Euro (DTK?). When did they start placing dropsondes around the offshore system (wasn't it a few days ago)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A point to ponder if the more muted solution comes to pass. They have been placing dropsondes in the Pacific around that offshore system and they have been incorporated into the GFS. I don't think they get into the Euro (DTK?). Hmm... I want to say they might since we're supposed to share all that data over NOAAPort etc... but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 When did they start placing dropsondes around the offshore system (wasn't it a few days ago)? Yes, I think it was the 00z run on Sunday. It was in the 00z run last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hmm... I want to say they might since we're supposed to share all that data over NOAAPort etc... but I'm not sure. I know they dont include the hunter aircraft positions in their tropical initialization (not that it hurts them). I thought I heard or read somewhere that they dont (Out of their choice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z JMA looks good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Actually the JMA looks great, handling the energy out of the Rockies differently than the other major models. The JMA and Ukie like holding the energy back, while the other models jump the energy out due to feedback. Thus the JMA is all amped up, while the other solutions are so flat. I'm in the Tombo camp, of snow news, is ALWAYS good news. I don't care if it is an inch or thirty, it is what we get, and I can live with that. Weather is like Karma anyway, it all evens out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 JMA is the ideal solution. After seeing all the runs it all basically comes down to how deep & strong the shortwave is entering the NW U.S. If I'm reading the thread correctly extra obs were taking during 00z last night and no extra obs taken out there for the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I know they dont include the hunter aircraft positions in their tropical initialization (not that it hurts them). I thought I heard or read somewhere that they dont (Out of their choice). ECMWF does incorporate hurricane hunter G-IV dropsondes, but not the WC-130 info. I would imagine the Euro has incorporated the winter recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm in the Tombo camp, of snow news, is ALWAYS good news. I don't care if it is an inch or thirty, it is what we get, and I can live with that. Weather is like Karma anyway, it all evens out in the end. Well said. Are the ens in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well said. Are the ens in? yea matched the op pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ECMWF does incorporate hurricane hunter G-IV dropsondes, but not the WC-130 info. I would imagine the Euro has incorporated the winter recon data. Well, then we are back to chaos theory. BTW side by side comparison of the gfs and ukmet fri mrng. Both coasts of the CONUS there really is not that much of a difference, the UKMET has a much stronger, less channelized short wave in the Pacific that punches thru the ridge. Judging from the GFS and UKMET differences with this even at 12z tomorrow, there should be some resolution by that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM appears to be caving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 18Z NAM has same results as 12Z GFS, EURO WRT southern stream energy sliding by to south with precip amounts area wide well below 0.25" It's "waffling" at this stage, not "caving" We aren't really watching the 18Z NAM at 72+, are we? Tell me we're not... NAM appears to be caving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 noaa briefing http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf ps, skip 18z, wait for 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 There is no surprise here if all the solutions are to the south. I have seen the Polar Vortex do it's dirty work before. In 2009, when still living in Metro NYC, UES to be specific, I watched Philly get 23" of snow, and the system never get within 50 miles of NYC, when it hit that brick wall from the North. On radar, it held position for three hours, then just went East by Northeast ( hey, great new movie idea ). Anyway, the GFS has a known bias to blast easily through arctic air, when the reality is it is like trying to cut through a block of ice with a dull butter knife. Still, don't give up the ghost yet. Too much model dependence here, it ought to come under the Psychiatric matrix, the DSM ( Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders ), somewhere below chemical dependency . To believe that once upon a time we believed in teleconnections , weather balloons and dropsondes only, not to mention hand drawn surface maps. Why, with this primitive tech, the US won a war with meteorologists forecasting a break in a persistent front over the English Channel in 1944. A small affair called D-Day. No model inconsistency to worry about then, just plain physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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