snowwors2 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Man, 0z euro really wraps up the coastal earlier along the coast. Nice run overall DC-bos Apparently, the eCm Ens are a lot like the op* that's all the info I got so far* Here's dc's thermal profile: Friday 18z .....-3.9 2m.....-12.3 850's..... .05 Saturday 00z....-4.4 2m....-6.6 850's..... .44 Saturday 06z.....-9.3 2m.....-8.7 850's...... .12 Balt is .74" Qpf... We're snowing in sub 534 thickness.. That's a pretty damn nice run of the euro!!! Have two big work events on Friday....Timing for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs about to look.... the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 ouch, even worse... line em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 +NAO ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't like it...through it out! ouch, even worse... line em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ouch, even worse... line em up! I think it was stated last evening that we are now in the timeframe where the GFS likes to "lose the storm". I'd bet the 0z Wed night run will bring it back. I think a GFS/Euro compromise like Tombo suggests may very well be close to the solution. We've seen this dance many times over and need to remind people to not start looking for a ledge/noose. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not surprised that the gfs loses the storm three days out...if it trends back it will start by 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z ukie, looks like it drives a primary up to ohio then you would think secondary like the euro was showing. Or it just drives it towards the region or north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've been away for a bit but I'm now, as most of you all, confident that the northern tracks were bogus. It is interesting that some mets were arguing for that type of scenario but I just can't understand why. There is deep, Arctic Air in place with a suppressive northern stream and an amplified northern stream which will prevent that sort of thing from happening (just like if the NAO was negative). A semi-progressive, amplified flow under a suppressive PV means a southward solution. I'm not sure right now if we go the way of the GFS or not. My initial feeling is a compromise where N NJ to New England see a decent mid-winter snowstorm and S NJ to VA get something briefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 If the EURO backs down, sound the alarms. If it holds, Something is fishy (no pub intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 +NAO ftl a positive nao argues for progressive i agree, but not a dry solution. The reason why that is happening is because the gfs isn't building the hgts enough out west and the pv just crushes everything. I will say this, it did trend towards the euro with starting to phase in the northern stream You can see that by its even more bullish on popping that low on the coast. That northern stream has to buckle the flow more to allow that to shoot northeast instead of ene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 a positive nao argues for progressive i agree, but not a dry solution. The reason why that is happening is because the gfs isn't building the hgts enough out west and the pv just crushes everything. I will say this, it did trend towards the euro with starting to phase in the northern stream You can see that by its even more bullish on popping that low on the coast. That northern stream has to buckle the flow more to allow that to shoot northeast instead of ene. I'm not talking about the dryness either, just how fast the coastal pulls away after developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think it was stated last evening that we are now in the timeframe where the GFS likes to "lose the storm". I'd bet the 0z Wed night run will bring it back. I think a GFS/Euro compromise like Tombo suggests may very well be close to the solution. We've seen this dance many times over and need to remind people to not start looking for a ledge/noose. Nut This is just track, not necessarily intensity or qpf, the gfs and ec compromise was the most accurate individual and/or combo solution 72hrs and within last winter. Right now they are giving you the left and rightmost possible solutions. The fact that the UK looks like its leaning the EC's way is encouraging for more snow. During the past month, the ec has had a wet bias beyond the .25" isohyet in the NE in the time period we are entering and the gfs bias has been the closest to 1, not that this works for every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not talking about the dryness either, just how fast the coastal pulls away after developing. ok, then yea i agree things will be moving fast but the flow still can buckle if that northern stream digs down and there is more of a ridge out west. Even if a coastal moves up the coast or ots it will move pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just fyi guys, you can't post any paid for euro images, for instance sv or weatherbell. Crackdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crackdown? nah, it's been in affect for a while i didn't know till i read it. They got in trouble with ecmwf for posting the images a while back. Raleigh or ewall euro images are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Biggest Euro run of 2013 in approx T-minus 90 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crackdown? careful, ur on the edge of a timeout . so curious how the euro pans out at 12Z. Tom hope u can do a play by play . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just track, not necessarily intensity or qpf, the gfs and ec compromise was the most accurate individual and/or combo solution 72hrs and within last winter. Right now they are giving you the left and rightmost possible solutions. The fact that the UK looks like its leaning the EC's way is encouraging for more snow. During the past month, the ec has had a wet bias beyond the .25" isohyet in the NE in the time period we are entering and the gfs bias has been the closest to 1, not that this works for every storm. Agreed. Thanks for clarifying. GFS gets wetter inside 72 and euro often overdoes the qpf. I think the challenge is that we now have cold in place and arent looking for cold despite the NAO, so we need to view from a different set of safety glasses as to how to manufacture a good snowstorm..its been a while since weve had cold in place...thats for sure. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 My gut says it comes in weaker... I might be up, not sure. Think I'm getting the flu :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013012212/I_nw_g1_EST_2013012212_085.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So the 12z GFS showed no snow whatsoever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 So the 12z GFS showed no snow whatsoever?Maybe 1-2"...2-3 in snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013012212/I_nw_g1_EST_2013012212_085.png Going towards a gfs like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Courtesy of Earthlight 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UKIE looks like some major slotting issues based verbatim off that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the gefs bring the northern low to pitt then develop a 2ndry off hse, which it moves ene and skirts jersey coast. They are more enthused on the 2ndry option than the 6z runs were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the gefs bring the northern low to pitt then develop a 2ndry off hse, which it moves ene and skirts jersey coast. They are more enthused on the 2ndry option than the 6z runs were. That is a step to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Maybe 1-2"... 2-3 in snj Thanks! I'm at work and can only check in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah gfs would only have me worried if ensembles agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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