SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ray, does MIV have precip issues on this run? At a glance it looks alright but I can only see generalities right now, I don't get access to the specifics for a while yet. That's fine man, too far out to worry about exacts. Good sign that its not obviously too warm. Was just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore. You want *some* dig on the Wednesday disturbance otherwise you're going to get ptype issues into Philly as warm air noses in. As long as it doesn't intensify too rapidly, we're fine for "good" snow...even if it's too much, we still get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Man, 0z euro really wraps up the coastal earlier along the coast. Nice run overall DC-bos Apparently, the eCm Ens are a lot like the op* that's all the info I got so far* Here's dc's thermal profile: Friday 18z .....-3.9 2m.....-12.3 850's..... .05 Saturday 00z....-4.4 2m....-6.6 850's..... .44 Saturday 06z.....-9.3 2m.....-8.7 850's...... .12 Balt is .74" Qpf... We're snowing in sub 534 thickness.. That's a pretty damn nice run of the euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's fine man, too far out to worry about exacts. Good sign that its not obviously too warm. Was just curious. Millville's more than fine on this run. Thanks man, lol. Frigging brutal out here doing the route tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Millville's more than fine on this run. What are you doing up so early? Going out for a frigid run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What are you doing up so early? Going out for a frigid run? -- not in this weather! (Couldn't sleep) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z GFS just like the 0z GFS if not a bit drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z GFS just like the 0z GFS if not a bit drier... Most people probably got more snow last night than what the 6z GFS is showing for Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, 6z NAM looks like it would be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS definitely looks like the outlier here. Will it score coup or cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looking at wundermap the Euro is around 0.7 in extreme SE PA and more in S Jersey and Del. The Euro has a primary to WV but deveops secondary in NC and a coastal front along shore.. This keeps warm air from penetrating inland so all snow along the coast down to central Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS definitely looks like the outlier here. Will it score coup or cave? Its not really phasing the pieces in time to hit this area very much outside of LI....my experience shows that its fairly unusual to have this type of synoptic setup the GFS/Euro are showing and not see significant snows from generally I-95 east from Philly northeastward, the gFS wants to say its mostly a SNE and ERN LI snowstorn (its even having a hard time saying that!) but the Euro wants to make it more of a classic Miller B that as usually the case screws DC and far southern NJ and does okay from central NJ northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 06 GEFS keep the northern low prominant early, but many develop more of a secondary over the SE than the Op run. Somewhat like the Euro solution but weaker and further offshore. All are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is exactly where the GFS should be a few days before any significant snow event....it will come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just fyi guys, you can't post any paid for euro images, for instance sv or weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Long way out for NAM but 12Z run looks nearly identical to 6Z run at hr 60+...at 850 and surface. See where it goes from here, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The usually crazily 84 hour amped NAM is not that amped, that has me on my heels a bit with this system for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z NAM at 78 looks slightly stronger with the Northern low (clipper) coming down. 6z looked like a nice hit extrapolated (ugh, extrapolating the NAM), and the 12Z seems like it's heading towards the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 only the Euro king matters at this range....the others are just noise The usually crazily 84 hour amped NAM is not that amped, that has me on my heels a bit with this system for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM following the GooFuS with a mere juiced-up fropa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 only the Euro king matters at this range....the others are just noise the euro has issues with being two amped...i'd say a solution between the gfs and euro is a good way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 only the Euro king matters at this range....the others are just noise At this range I usually only use the NAM for red flags given its bias, same as the NOGAPS...right now you'd usually want to see the NAM more north and west with this, that does not mean its going to be suppressed but it certainly gives some score points to the suppressed scenario that the NAM isnt over NRN PA where I'd typically expect it at 84 hours on a storm going off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At this range I usually only use the NAM for red flags given its bias, same as the NOGAPS...right now you'd usually want to see the NAM more north and west with this, that does not mean its going to be suppressed but it certainly gives some score points to the suppressed scenario that the NAM isnt over NRN PA where I'd typically expect it at 84 hours on a storm going off the Delmarva. Some suppression isnt that far -fetched given the PV at play, thus I agree with your assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This was said in another thread last night, but the 12z NAM radar reminds me of Jan 2005, with a weaker 500mb and farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This was said in another thread last night, but the 12z NAM radar reminds me of Jan 2005, with a weaker 500mb and farther south. And did you see how fast the system is moving?! I know I've been harping on this, but the progressive +NAO is going to keep this a 2-4" system, maybe a 3-6"....I think to fit the theme of this winter, the Euro will succumb to the GFS later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Probably depends to how western system comes onshore. The US models seem to handling different than Euro/Ukie/GEM. The NAM could be weaker because the northern plains system is overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 strongly disagree...the answer either way will not be known today. This is a very bad range for the American Models.....of course the Euro though recovering some of it's past glory has not been stellar tod date - I would still expect to see this trend stronger on the American models by the 0z runs tomorrow (Wed night) - between then and now many will write it off. And did you see how fast the system is moving?! I know I've been harping on this, but the progressive +NAO is going to keep this a 2-4" system, maybe a 3-6"....I think to fit the theme of this winter, the Euro will succumb to the GFS later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 strongly disagree...the answer either way will not be known today. This is a very bad range for the American Models.....of course the Euro though recovering some of it's past glory has not been stellar tod date - I would still expect to see this trend stronger on the American models by the 0z runs tomorrow (Wed night) - between then and now many will write it off. Yup. There are no guarantees. But I think I've seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM is still a solid event, I'd be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 strongly disagree...the answer either way will not be known today. This is a very bad range for the American Models.....of course the Euro though recovering some of it's past glory has not been stellar tod date - I would still expect to see this trend stronger on the American models by the 0z runs tomorrow (Wed night) - between then and now many will write it off. Paul, I hope you are correct, but we've seen the Euro cave to the GFS a few times in this situation already this year. Whether it's not reading the strength of the PV properly or what, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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