Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

Recommended Posts

Ray, does MIV have precip issues on this run?

At a glance it looks alright but I can only see generalities right now, I don't get access to the specifics for a while yet.

That's fine man, too far out to worry about exacts. Good sign that its not obviously too warm. Was just curious.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 751
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore.

 

You want *some* dig on the Wednesday disturbance otherwise you're going to get ptype issues into Philly as warm air noses in.  As long as it doesn't intensify too rapidly, we're fine for "good" snow...even if it's too much, we still get something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man,

0z euro really wraps up the coastal earlier along the coast. Nice run overall DC-bos

Apparently, the eCm Ens are a lot like the op* that's all the info I got so far*

Here's dc's thermal profile:

Friday 18z .....-3.9 2m.....-12.3 850's..... .05

Saturday 00z....-4.4 2m....-6.6 850's..... .44

Saturday 06z.....-9.3 2m.....-8.7 850's...... .12

Balt is .74" Qpf...

We're snowing in sub 534 thickness.. That's a pretty damn nice run of the euro!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at wundermap the Euro is around 0.7 in extreme SE PA and more in S Jersey and Del. The Euro has a primary to WV but deveops secondary in NC and a coastal front along shore.. This keeps warm air from penetrating inland so all snow along the coast down to central Delmarva

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS definitely looks like the outlier here. Will it score coup or cave?

 

Its not really phasing the pieces in time to hit this area very much outside of LI....my experience shows that its fairly unusual to have this type of synoptic setup the GFS/Euro are showing and not see significant snows from generally I-95 east from Philly northeastward, the gFS wants to say its mostly a SNE and ERN LI snowstorn (its even having a hard time saying that!) but the Euro wants to make it more of a classic Miller B that as usually the case screws DC and far southern NJ and does okay from central NJ northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

only the Euro king matters at this range....the others are just noise

 

At this range I usually only use the NAM for red flags given its bias, same as the NOGAPS...right now you'd usually want to see the NAM more north and west with this, that does not mean its going to be suppressed but it certainly gives some score points to the suppressed scenario that the NAM isnt over NRN PA where I'd typically expect it at 84 hours on a storm going off the Delmarva.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this range I usually only use the NAM for red flags given its bias, same as the NOGAPS...right now you'd usually want to see the NAM more north and west with this, that does not mean its going to be suppressed but it certainly gives some score points to the suppressed scenario that the NAM isnt over NRN PA where I'd typically expect it at 84 hours on a storm going off the Delmarva.

 

Some suppression isnt that far -fetched given the PV at play, thus I agree with your assessment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was said in another thread last night, but the 12z NAM radar reminds me of Jan 2005, with a weaker 500mb and farther south. 

And did you see how fast the system is moving?! I know I've been harping on this, but the progressive +NAO is going to keep this a 2-4" system, maybe a 3-6"....I think to fit the theme of this winter, the Euro will succumb to the GFS later today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

strongly disagree...the answer either way will not be known today. This is a very bad range for the American Models.....of course the Euro though recovering some of it's past glory has not been stellar tod date - I would still expect to see this trend stronger on the American models by the 0z runs tomorrow (Wed night) - between then and now many will write it off.

And did you see how fast the system is moving?! I know I've been harping on this, but the progressive +NAO is going to keep this a 2-4" system, maybe a 3-6"....I think to fit the theme of this winter, the Euro will succumb to the GFS later today.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

strongly disagree...the answer either way will not be known today. This is a very bad range for the American Models.....of course the Euro though recovering some of it's past glory has not been stellar tod date - I would still expect to see this trend stronger on the American models by the 0z runs tomorrow (Wed night) - between then and now many will write it off.

Yup. There are no guarantees. But I think I've seen this movie before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

strongly disagree...the answer either way will not be known today. This is a very bad range for the American Models.....of course the Euro though recovering some of it's past glory has not been stellar tod date - I would still expect to see this trend stronger on the American models by the 0z runs tomorrow (Wed night) - between then and now many will write it off.

Paul, I hope you are correct, but we've seen the Euro cave to the GFS a few times in this situation already this year. Whether it's not reading the strength of the PV properly or what, I'm not sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...