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1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

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the confluence is to strong, it will shear that northern stream out and the southern storm will be the main storm. The hgt line doesn't have much sw to ne alignment, more of a east to west look.

You want a little amplification of the trough to get the southern wave going earlier and get the moisture involved.

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Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore.

 

Good point. Could be slowing down the western system enough to allow N stream to phase-in better or in some other way altering its development..

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Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore.

 

Yeah, its slower to exit (because its stronger) and whether that's the whole reason or not, there isnt as much amplification out west also, the whole flow becomes more zonal. 

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Yeah, its slower to exit (because its stronger) and whether that's the whole reason or not, there isnt as much amplification out west also, the whole flow becomes more zonal. 

 

Yeah the western system doesn't dig much. Not sure why the clipper would impact that but it could be a timing issue. 

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Everyone is asleep, EURO buries our region, great run! 500mb looks KU-ish as well....

 

PS. I subscribed with stormvista for EURO precip, I could help out on PBP if tom is out for the night. 

He seems to be gone..got a bit of info from NYC thread..

 

.60-.75 in KPHL and .25-.50 N and W from there?

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He seems to be gone..got a bit of info from NYC thread..

 

.60-.75 in KPHL and .25-.50 N and W from there?

 

ABE is exactly 0.50", though the last tenth is stretched out over 12 hours.

 

A little over 0.70" at PHL. 

 

Its warmer than 12Z so ratios not as good...  probably 7-10" PHL, 5-9" ABE taken literally.

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ABE is exactly 0.50", though the last tenth is stretched out over 12 hours.

A little over 0.70" at PHL.

Its warmer than 12Z so ratios not as good... probably 7-10" PHL, 5-9" ABE taken literally.

Maybe not jump on a plane worthy but ill take it....i feel like we are in a decent spot right now...in the middle of run to run waffling.

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