NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 slower by about 6 hrs..seems a little moe amp'd with the northern low dropping down. hmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 slower by about 6 hrs..seems a little moe amp'd with the northern low dropping down. hmm.... the confluence is to strong, it will shear that northern stream out and the southern storm will be the main storm. The hgt line doesn't have much sw to ne alignment, more of a east to west look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 alot flatter with the trough, moisture field not as expansive.... mmight be too suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 a lot lighter on the QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This a clipper now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looks like the 6z GFS from earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 drier this run, but still a nice 2-4 for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 the confluence is to strong, it will shear that northern stream out and the southern storm will be the main storm. The hgt line doesn't have much sw to ne alignment, more of a east to west look. You want a little amplification of the trough to get the southern wave going earlier and get the moisture involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 a lot lighter on the QPF... Colder so far, though, so no mixing problems. Isn't this the range models can lose a bigger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You want a little amplification of the trough to get the southern wave going earlier and get the moisture involved. yea you definitely do, just killed the southern storm.. new look, by this time tomorrow it will be different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Keeps the northern low dominant much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 .1-.25 qpf total. Basically, a glorified clipper. NJ - NYC is .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is a big shift don't trust it until other models confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yea you definitely do, just killed the southern storm.. new look, by this time tomorrow it will be different... If we could just get a solid 4-8, that would be a nice change from the 1-3 inchers of this winter and last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looks like the 6z GFS from earlier today Yeah quick to phase with the northern portion of the trough. Probably too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In 6 hours it will be different, no point in dissecting this one much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore. Good point. Could be slowing down the western system enough to allow N stream to phase-in better or in some other way altering its development.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Through 66 hours the GEM does not appear its going to be a miss of any sort, if anything it may be going north again, cannot say for sure yet, we'll know in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Interestingly the 2 GFS runs that were duds on this the last 18 hours were the ones that tried to blow the clipper up at Day 3, likely a connection there, we probably don't want that clipper bombing offshore. Yeah, its slower to exit (because its stronger) and whether that's the whole reason or not, there isnt as much amplification out west also, the whole flow becomes more zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NOGAPS now very suppressed compared to what it was but not that bad...Canadian still a hit but also moved south somewhat through 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, its slower to exit (because its stronger) and whether that's the whole reason or not, there isnt as much amplification out west also, the whole flow becomes more zonal. Yeah the western system doesn't dig much. Not sure why the clipper would impact that but it could be a timing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GEM has shifted a little south. low to W Pa then reforms over Va. R/S gets to phl at end of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Everyone is asleep, EURO buries our region, great run! 500mb looks KU-ish as well.... PS. I subscribed with stormvista for EURO precip, I could help out on PBP if tom is out for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Everyone is asleep, EURO buries our region, great run! 500mb looks KU-ish as well.... PS. I subscribed with stormvista for EURO precip, I could help out on PBP if tom is out for the night. He seems to be gone..got a bit of info from NYC thread.. .60-.75 in KPHL and .25-.50 N and W from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 He seems to be gone..got a bit of info from NYC thread.. .60-.75 in KPHL and .25-.50 N and W from there? ABE is exactly 0.50", though the last tenth is stretched out over 12 hours. A little over 0.70" at PHL. Its warmer than 12Z so ratios not as good... probably 7-10" PHL, 5-9" ABE taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ABE is exactly 0.50", though the last tenth is stretched out over 12 hours. A little over 0.70" at PHL. Its warmer than 12Z so ratios not as good... probably 7-10" PHL, 5-9" ABE taken literally. Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ABE is exactly 0.50", though the last tenth is stretched out over 12 hours. A little over 0.70" at PHL. Its warmer than 12Z so ratios not as good... probably 7-10" PHL, 5-9" ABE taken literally. Maybe not jump on a plane worthy but ill take it....i feel like we are in a decent spot right now...in the middle of run to run waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ray, does MIV have precip issues on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ray, does MIV have precip issues on this run? At a glance it looks alright but I can only see generalities right now, I don't get access to the specifics for a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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