NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 You mond looking at MDT? Temps an issue at all? not even close to trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 per SV maps, 8-12" over philly proper and 5 county burbs. Gillyville is donut holed with 1" snow.. looks like 4-8 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 per SV maps, 8-12" over philly proper and 5 county burbs. Gillyville is donut holed with 1" snow.. looks like 4-8 area wide. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Have to check soundings to be sure but most would do better with this run vs 12z. Higher qpf and same or slightly cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 bullseye 4 days out? what could go wrong...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 per SV maps, 8-12" over philly proper and 5 county burbs. Gillyville is donut holed with 1" snow.. looks like 4-8 area wide. with 40-1 ratios up here i will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 with 40-1 ratios up here i will be fine. Irishbri should prepare for a sleetfest. poor guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Went from 1.3 at 850 to 1.0. It's just hard to tell how much precip has already fallen before it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I still do not like the location of the 850mb low, it worries me that the surface might eventually trend farther north...but hey, if the GFS verified I'd take it and be happy with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Went from 1.3 at 850 to 1.0. It's just hard to tell how much precip has already fallen before it warms up. I'll tell you in like 15 mins i have a site where i can get access to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I still do not like the location of the 850mb low, it worries me that the surface might eventually trend farther north...but hey, if the GFS verified I'd take it and be happy with winter. the 850 and 925 low are both worrisome on that gfs run. I would def think mixing would come into se pa with the track of those lows to the north. But its 4 days out, it will continue to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I still do not like the location of the 850mb low, it worries me that the surface might eventually trend farther north...but hey, if the GFS verified I'd take it and be happy with winter. Normally we would change over with a track like that. The very cold air before the storm saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Tombo, I still do think even if the 850 low tracks like the GFS is showing Philly could still have a thump then drizzle/zr at the end. So many details, got a long way to go, I'm just happy there is something legit to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Went from 1.3 at 850 to 1.0. It's just hard to tell how much precip has already fallen before it warms up. you flip right before hr 102, over .5 of snow it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Thanks Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the 850 and 925 low are both worrisome on that gfs run. I would def think mixing would come into se pa with the track of those lows to the north. But its 4 days out, it will continue to evolve. would be thrilled with a 50 mile shift south...if that happens, almost everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM looking interesting for Friday. Should be further south/east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I am driving down to Allentown from Maine on Friday. I'm thinking I may have to come down on Thursday, what's the weather looking like for Thursday down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I am driving down to Allentown from Maine on Friday. I'm thinking I may have to come down on Thursday, what's the weather looking like for Thursday down there. cold and dry, should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 would be thrilled with a 50 mile shift south...if that happens, almost everyone wins. I'm not thrilled being one of the "almost everyone" group. PA above I-78 would be on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not thrilled being one of the "almost everyone" group. PA above I-78 would be on the light side. I'm not saying this will happen with the next storm. But look at what areas did tonight. .05 qpf lead to 1-2 inch snows. The airmass on friday should be colder assuming the low tracks south and .25 qpf could turn into 4-5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not saying this will happen with the next storm. But look at what areas did tonight. .05 qpf lead to 1-2 inch snows. The airmass on friday should be colder assuming the low tracks south and .25 qpf could turn into 4-5 inches of snow. I went through this in the NYC thread... but the atmospheric profile will be significantly different on Friday, depending on what model you are looking at. Here's the sounding for today's event... notice its down near -20 at 700... while also, here's Friday's prog from the 18Z GFS... with a 700 temp above -10. That will significantly affect snow:water ratios. Might still get some 12:1 or 13:1 ratios, but the 20-35:1 ratios from today are highly unlikely if the sounding verifies. Of course, we still have a dozen or so model runs for things to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not saying this will happen with the next storm. But look at what areas did tonight. .05 qpf lead to 1-2 inch snows. The airmass on friday should be colder assuming the low tracks south and .25 qpf could turn into 4-5 inches of snow. Yeah, I know. was attempting light humor. I had several plowables here so I hope more south of me finally get into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I went through this in the NYC thread... but the atmospheric profile will be significantly different on Friday, depending on what model you are looking at. Here's the sounding for today's event... notice its down near -20 at 700... while also, here's Friday's prog from the 18Z GFS... with a 700 temp above -10. That will significantly affect snow:water ratios. Might still get some 12:1 or 13:1 ratios, but the 20-35:1 ratios from today are highly unlikely if the sounding verifies. Of course, we still have a dozen or so model runs for things to change 130122033814.gif 130122033741.gif good post Ray, thanks for the explanation. Should still do better than 10:1 and also, the gfs is the warmest i believe. Do you have soundings for the euro? I would think that 700mb temp would be colder since overall its a colder storm. The euros 850s are heck of a lot colder than the gfs, granted i know that means nothing in snow growth, but the thicknesses in general on the euro were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Also to note on ray's post is the total totalts #. 47 tonight compared to 16 on friday. Tonights squall had some convecte elements today as HM was alluding to earlier this week (good call fella). So that too will impact ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 just looking at h5, the gfs should come in further south. The pv is stronger the northern stream energy isn't as strong. The low in the south is developing further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 good post Ray, thanks for the explanation. Should still do better than 10:1 and also, the gfs is the warmest i believe. Do you have soundings for the euro? I would think that 700mb temp would be colder since overall its a colder storm. The euros 850s are heck of a lot colder than the gfs, granted i know that means nothing in snow growth, but the thicknesses in general on the euro were colder. Yes, the latest EC was colder, -15 or -16 at 700 at ABE and -12 or -13 at 700 at PHL... so you'd get better ratios with that. Don't have access to soundings (SV maybe?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 looking colder ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 slower again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A little stronger with the wed night clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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