wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ggem is south of last night's 0z, looks like snow to rain, the lp goes through cnj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ggem is south of last night's 0z, looks like snow to rain, the lp goes through cnj.. 12z ukie is very similar to 00z. May be best solution of all for area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z gefs look gooood. Just south of the op, or very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 clown maps from Barker show 6-8 for Philly north. Need that rain/snow line about 50 miles farther south to feel really, really good about Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looking at GFS soundings there is a warm nose around 850 and warm air near the surface in Del+S Jersey. BWI, DOV, MLV and ACY are all in the 0.3- 0.5 liquid as snow range before changeover around hour 105. KACY accumulation would be limited by warm surface. Phl and ilg are all snow but very close to a changeover at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 clown maps from Barker show 6-8 for Philly north. Need that rain/snow line about 50 miles farther south to feel really, really good about Friday. Agree with this. The warm air at 850 rarely underperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 so far through hr 66, the euro has that second shot of cold with that clipper more so than the 0z. Also, the northern stream isn't as amplified as 0z though it is a little slower so that may be the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looking at GFS soundings there is a warm nose around 850 and warm air near the surface in Del+S Jersey. BWI, DOV, MLV and ACY are all in the 0.3- 0.5 liquid as snow range before changeover around hour 105. KACY accumulation would be limited by warm surface. Phl and ilg are all snow but very close to a changeover at hour 108. On the GFS you can almost smell the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the euro has the colder airmass behind wednesday's clipper which looks like it may squeak out some precip. The pv is holding on stronger. I would be surprised if this solution is north of the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the storm is probably 6 hours slower on this euro run which may compensate for the harder cold push than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On the GFS you can almost smell the sleet. Yup. Md gets it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 96 has a 1016 surface reflection over central ten. Nice 1028 high over northeast into southeast canada....precip entering ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 102 has a sub 1012 low over eastern ky...snow breaking out in dc and balt...850s and frz line well south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hour 96 Euro also showing a cold air damming a bit on the east side nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Tombo...faster compared to 0z run or faster compared to the other models of the 12z suite???...also, could you tell those europeans to speed this up my lunchbreak is almost over...thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the northern stream has finally caught up into the storm, should take a northeast track from there..but south of or area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 102 has a sub 1012 low over eastern ky...snow breaking out in dc and balt...850s and frz line well south of the region. picking up cold air damming that was very evident a few days ago on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Sounds a hair East and South of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 108 sub 1012 low over se va.... .1-.25 qpf for everyone... .25-.5 from shippensburg to ptw to phl to toms river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 114 sub 1004 low about 150 miles east of delmarva .1-.25 from balt-abe on east... .25-.5 nyc then right down 295 then to dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Takes a side with the Ukie as far as the se VA track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 120 precip is out of here...everyone gets .25-.5 extreme se pa lower montco,bucks,delco,chester co and phl on east and south .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 from m/d line on north and west temps of 15-20 while snowing. 850s -8 to -12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 how far north does the 850 line get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Another good call. I'll take a ukie/euro blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Great analysis Tombo as always! This run should make many happy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 how far north does the 850 line get? norfolk va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Tombo...faster compared to 0z run or faster compared to the other models of the 12z suite???...also, could you tell those europeans to speed this up my lunchbreak is almost over...thx sorry just saw this...the 12z run was slower than the 0z run of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 solid 6" event...if 5 days out were reality I'd be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 should mention city gets down to 5 for overnight low the following night with burbs pushing 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.