NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 0z gfs coming in more south for the 25th-26th storm..little more south than the euro @ 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 0z gfs coming in more south for the 25th-26th storm..little more south than the euro @ 168. Was just going to post this. Nice 3-6 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 171, bout .25" over eastern pa. 174, mod precip all snow over mt.holly CWA.. 178, 998-1002 coastal poppping of va capes, stil mod precip..all snow... not sure on precip amounts... 183, 996mb low inside the bm... precip shield isn't too broad to the west. 186, NE getting it good.. great great trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 With that track gotta be some precip issues I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 171, bout .25" over eastern pa. 174, mod precip all snow over mt.holly CWA.. 178, 998 coastal poppping of va capes, stil mod precip..all snow..! Great run - quite cold next week - nice D7 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 With that track gotta be some precip issues I think? negative.. pure northern stream clipper.. 32 surface line down in south jersey, 0 850 line down by va capes/NC border....antecedent airmass is plenty cold... (little distrubance comes through on that thursday prior) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 With that track gotta be some precip issues I think? 850 0 line gets up to southern delaware but they would get a nice snow before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Don't forget the Wednesday night disturbance which helps keeps the cold in longer and enhances any snow showers. . Low slows along coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Holy crap. Straight up weather porn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Sign me up for that 00z GFS! 4-8" storm with plenty of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Don't forget the Wednesday night disturbance which helps keeps the cold in longer and enhances any snow showers. . Low slows along coast as well. wonder how much more this can dig... too bad its a week away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Airmass is quite cold before storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 8-12 for most of eastern pa per SV...( still not making a thread)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 8-12 for most of eastern pa per SV...( still not making a thread)... Wow. That's nuts. Hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Wow. That's nuts. Hope it pans out. 7 days out... whats to worry?! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .75 precip and good ratios for PHL proper on this run. Pretty damn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 would like to see the 925 low a bit more south.. SNJ gets warm nosed and gets awfully close to philly... a little more digging and id feel a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 0z GFS is a decent hit. Northern stream vort digging to tennessee , into come pretty decent cold air... redevelops into a coastal... GO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 only concern is this doesn't dig as much as its shown. Happened a few times this year.. However, with a pretty decent cold air mass in place and a little disturbance on wed noght preceeding the main event, could push the boundary far enough south for the shortwave to dig as shown on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 only concern is this doesn't dig as much as its shown. Happened a few times this year.. However, with a pretty decent cold air mass in place and a little disturbance on wed noght preceeding the main event, could push the boundary far enough south for the shortwave to dig as shown on the 0z GFS. It all comes down to the proximity of the pv in my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 would like to see the 925 low a bit more south.. SNJ gets warm nosed and gets awfully close to philly... a little more digging and id feel a lot better. Excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 GGEM keeps its north,,, lakes to ne... west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It all comes down to the proximity of the pv in my eyes Agree. If its strong and in E Canada as modeled it acts as a 50/50 and keeps the storm track favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GGEM keeps its north,,, lakes to ne... west to east. Pretty much what the euro ens had. Should say the ggem is a pretty bad model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 GGEM keeps its north,,, lakes to ne... west to east. Pretty much what the euro ens had. Should say the ggem is a pretty bad model it has its times... 0z GEFS look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GEM illustrates what can go wrong. Thiis will bounce around for a couple of more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Thats an improvement on the GEFS - has shifted south a little, increased qpf and has started to show a low pressure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Regardless what happens you have to at least like the cold air thats in place. Thats something we haven't had so that is a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 0z EURO looked better with the ridge and trough, but the lead shortwave outruns a pretty sexy looking trough. looks like last nights 0z gfs..clipper type system swinging from indiana to north of NYC, weak fropa dragging underneath it. eventually pops a coastal off shore, but not quick enough. need that northern vort to dig more... if it can, boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Don't forget the Wednesday night disturbance which helps keeps the cold in longer and enhances any snow showers. . Low slows along coast as well. That Wednesday night disturbance, if it's reality, will probably help Friday out since it's a reinforcer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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