Ground Scouring Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Compared to runs since 12Z yesterday, the NAM at 03Z 01/30 has been trending about a millibar deeper with the surface low each run, and the trend is likely not finished. And it has been trending toward an even-clearer warm sector late tomorrow morning. So has the 12Z WRF compared to the 00Z run, at least on the night prior to 01/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Thank You guys for the feedback. I was wondering does moisture drive up CAPE despite lack of sunshine or cloud cover? 62-68F dewpoints seem really high for this time of the year. Could it drive it up to as high as 1000-1500J/kg for tomorrows event. Sorry I know little about this stuff and will let you guys speak.Sorry for being a jerk in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Focusing only on Texas, I'm a bit surprised to see they drew the SLGT line so far west. I guess they are being conservative with the line's development. I wouldn't be surprised to see them push that risk a good 100 miles east with later outlooks. I do agree with other posters that this outlook was conservative. Should the 12Z model suite continue to aggressive, I would anticipate a more strongly-worded discussion at 1730Z. It's all about the forecaster style.Actually I wouldn't be surprised if they added in a Day 1 risk for tonight (they hint at that)...and drew the Day 2 further west...to account for any dryline isolated stuff that fires between 12 am - 6 am. I'd have at least a 5% in to the areas to the west...for an Ozona...to Sweetwater...to Wichita Falls line. I've noticed that the AWIPS soundings tend to outperform Bufkit of web based parameters. Note the increased instability on the UNMODIFIED AWIPS sounding from today's 12z NAM (click on the sounding to see full view) for Brownwood, Texas...southeast of Abilene. I'm not saying it's gonna happen...but I could see the 5% being added further west. CONSENSUS OF LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO MORE PROBABLE AREAS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT: 1) FROM ERN KS INTO WRN/NRN MO IN THE 29/02-06Z TIME FRAME...AND 2) FROM CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX IN THE 29/09-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG. AS SUCH...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST GIVEN SUSTAINED STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE LOW...UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS SHOULD THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SCENARIOS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Very impressive sounding from Norman this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 ?!? Tony, are those the predicted amount of tornado reports for 1/29-1/30? That is a lot of reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 ?!? Tony, are those the predicted amount of tornado reports for 1/29-1/30? That is a lot of reports. No. It's an analog. It takes the current setup and spits out past outbreaks that are similar to this current setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 One other thing to key in on is that the GFS has been consistent in indicating development ahead of the main frontal convection in the Delta region of SE AR/NE LA/W MS around 00z tomorrow evening. That region would be quite conducive to tornadoes, with better instability and large hodos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Greenwood, MS: (W MS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I love how 12z NAM shows secondary low development and gfs has been showing it for awhile now and yet SPC forecaster Goss completely ignores that.. I don't agree with the outlook fully either....but what? How could he guess what the 12z NAM would look like last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z NAM forecast sounding for Norman 3z this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nice sounding there wxwatcher. Solid 0-3 km SRH with a lot of it concentrated in the lowest km, adequate 0-3 km CAPE and fairly minimal CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Should I be interested in today's potential? And is tomorrow still looking like a tor threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Should I be interested in today's potential? And is tomorrow still looking like a tor threat? The last few pages should give you your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 One more thing. How do you read a hodograph? What does it mean? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 http://mesoscale.ou.edu/~doswell/hodographs/hodographs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 http://mesoscale.ou.edu/~doswell/hodographs/hodographs.html Another.. http://weather.cod.edu/sirvatka/hodo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I don't agree with the outlook fully either....but what? How could he guess what the 12z NAM would look like last night? Good point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 What does it look like around St Louis tomorrow? NAM looks interesting I think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 No. It's an analog. It takes the current setup and spits out past outbreaks that are similar to this current setup. Yes. The top five CIPS analogs for 00Z 01/30 are now, in order from 1) to 5), as follows: 01/13/2005, 12/27/2008, 02/09/2001, 03/10/1992, and 03/01/2007. The overnight analogs are 01/04/2000, 12/23/2007, 02/17/2008, 02/06/2008, and 01/04/1982. 02/05-02/06/2008, 03/10/1992, and 03/01/2007--the crème de la crème--have consistently been near the top of the preferred analogs. Interestingly, 02/11/2009, the date of the Lone Grove, OK, EF4 tornado, is now the second top analog for 00Z 01/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Thanks for the hodo links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Moderate risk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Greenwood, MS: (W MS) for what it's worth, the NAM maps have 0-1km EHI of 1 to 1.2 for west Mississippi, east Arkansas at nighttime (06z) tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Moderate risk! day2otlk_1730.gif Bout time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Temps seem to be overachieving right now (70s up to I-70). It will be interesting to see if this continues tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 man, if these clouds break for just a couple hours this afternoon, it'll be enough to spike into the upper 70's to around 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Think we could see an upgrade to Slight in Oklahoma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 man, if these clouds break for just a couple hours this afternoon, it'll be enough to spike into the upper 70's to around 80 You don't want temps that high. Though you have pretty solid moisture near the sfc, it's pretty shallow, and any breaks in the clouds would support mixing of dry air to the sfc, eliminating any CAPE and making LCLs skyrocket. You guys are just gonna need whatever lead impulse impacts the warm sector tonight to be enough to help sustain DMC. If it is strong enough, then I don't see why a tornado or two won't happen as long as the drier air doesn't mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Also, FWIW, Super Tuesday had a band of severe convection form the day before along the front, much like may occur this evening. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=40.000&lon=98.000&zoom=35&mode=0&bdate=20080204/1200&edate=20080205/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=-1&showh=-1&showw=-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 A few SPC images. Satellite, Surface CAPE, 3km EHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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