NaoPos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 BTW, in the mid-levels of that storm on the AR/OK border, 154.4kt max delta-V at 4100ft. That thing may produce a monster. Looks like a small debris ball. Looking on sat it's a heavily wooded area not much else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 There is a tornado confirmed on the ground from what my local met is saying. I've been in that area alot and can confirm it's pretty wooded, but there are some good amount of houses in there. http://5newsonline.com/on-air/live-streaming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 BTW, in the mid-levels of that storm on the AR/OK border, 154.4kt max delta-V at 4100ft. That thing may produce a monster. Looks like a small debris ball. Looking on sat it's a heavily wooded area not much else Heads up, for now KINX has a better velocity read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Tornado reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 is James Hilger on ChaserTV about to get hit directly? You would think guy would want to be a little further south of an approaching TOG storm. FYI 150-200 yards wide from AR EMA. From 5News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That looked like a pretty good sized tornado. 61dBZ and sub 50% rho-hv is impressive with that tight couplet. Hopefully everyone in the path took appropriate shelter. Also, the line segment near St. Louis is gaining a few mesovorticies, all of which should have a risk of producing tornadoes across cntl IL. I noticed KSPI's sfc winds were backing ahead of the QLCS, which could serve to further heighten tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That looked like a pretty good sized tornado. 61dBZ and sub 50% rho-hv is impressive with that tight couplet. Hopefully everyone in the path took appropriate shelter. Also, the line segment near St. Louis is gaining a few mesovorticies, all of which should have a risk of producing tornadoes across cntl IL. I noticed KSPI's sfc winds were backing ahead of the QLCS, which could serve to further heighten tornado potential. Do you think we could still see a significant tornado threat in Arkansas this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I love how everyone's starting to talk down this event even though it wasn't expect to really get going until after 00z anyway. It's the same people all the time, too. How about we just sit back and watch how things evolve for once? A lot can and will happen between now and 00z-03z. Now that the cold pool is beginning to erode the capping over NW LA, I should probably not be willing to overturn my earlier, consistent projections at the last minute. You are spot-on again...I was probably somewhat impatient and overly nervous about the bust potential. Low-topped convection near SHV actually appears to be initiating a bit earlier than indicated on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Do you think we could still see a significant tornado threat in Arkansas this evening? Well we just saw a likely short-lived significant one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The line with the previous tornado is re-strenghtening as it enters MO. Perhaps towards Branson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I would keep an eye on the storms in east Oklahoma. They look to have intensified over the last few scans. EDIT: Nevermind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Decent meso near Berryville AR at 359 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Decent meso near Berryville MO at 359 PM CST. TOR warned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The line of supercell activity near AEX in LA will be the key to watch over the next few hours. Couplet is forming south of FSM...is that a small debris ball on the tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The line of supercell activity near AEX in LA will be the key to watch over the next few hours. Couplet is forming south of FSM...is that a small debris ball on the tip? Doubt it. There was hardly even any rotation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichelleH Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 New MSD out: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0437 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 292237Z - 300100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TO CNTRL LA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FED BY UPSTREAM PW VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL FAVORABLY INCREASE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH APPEARING LIKELY TOO SLOW /BETWEEN 03-06Z/. IT APPEARS MORE PROBABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR BY THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013 ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS BOTH QLCS AND PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS LIKELY STRENGTHEN. BOTH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE QLCS LIKELY ACCELERATES EWD DURING THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS JUST AHEAD OF THE QLCS. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0077.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Watch probs now that the watch is official: Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (50%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Major, isolated, TOR-warned cell is approaching from SW of Greenville, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Major, isolated, TOR-warned cell is approaching from SW of Greenville, MS. That group of storms could cause some trouble. They're way out there on their own.. Too bad that storm is sorta in a radar hole, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks potent. Radar hole is annoying. SPC extended the watch east a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Little Rock is under a tornado warning. Doppler indicated tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like stuff is picking up as expected, 4 tornado warnings currently including Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Little Rock cell has a rather small, moderately-intense couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Intense couplet south of Greenville, MS is now TOR Warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Doesn't look all that impressive even at higher tilts. (Little Rock cell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Live news stream for Little Rock http://www.todaysthv.com/thv2/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 There's gotta be a TOG approaching Indiaonla, MS. Indianola actually has a county fire radio: http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=9931 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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