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January 17th Post-Mortem: Who is still shooting blanks?


eyewall

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Well we all know the January 17th event (outside of some awesome thundersnow) underperformed or didn't perform at all for many. Following this event who here is still at 0" for the season? Also I am told nothing fell in Asheville. What is their current snowless streak?

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Well we all know the January 17th event (outside of some awesome thundersnow) underperformed or didn't perform at all for many. Following this event who here is still at 0" for the season? Also I am told nothing fell in Asheville. What is their current snowless streak?

 

The official count at the airport is 739 days since at least an inch fell, and 736 days since anything more than a trace has fallen.  Of course there have been some northwest flow events in the county that have produced for some people in the favorable regions.

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The official count at the airport is 739 days since at least an inch fell, and 736 days since anything more than a trace has fallen.  Of course there have been some northwest flow events in the county that have produced for some people in the favorable regions.

I have had a few snow showers this year, Last year we picked up a dry inch and half with a flow event that was blown around. So its really been since that big Jan storm back in 2011 that we have had anything to write home about.

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It was a rough night here. Temperature didn't fall below 34 until after all precipitation ended. I received about 45 minutes of moderate snow/sleet/freezing rain with no accumulations, except a little on the deck and cars. This morning all the water had frozen and the roads even had some ice on them.

 

It's been over two years since Shelby has seen a measurable snow (and really any snow at all.)

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It snowed and sleeted at my locale, but the 1.5" of rain soaked the warm ground, thus notthing accumulated.

 

Have not seen a measurable snow since February 6, 2011, that was an 1".

 

Have not seen significant acuumulation since the 15" I recorded on December 26, 2010.

 

Listing this just made me sad. :cry:  :underthewx:

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I have had a couple minor flow events up towards Weaverville. My biggest snow of the year was a 2+" whooper before Halloween (post Sandy). As Jason said yesterday the Asheville area seems to have slipped back into the pre 2009-2010 winter mode where we were always on the outside looking in.

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I'm snowless down here in Charlotte two years and counting. Last one I recall was a mid-January storm in 2011 that gave me 3-4" snow/sleet that then froze hard with a some freezing rain. That was in the NODA area. Even spending all winter long working in Indiana last year only resulted in me seeing maybe a total of 3", and that's pushing it, fall from the sky for the entire time I was up there.

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I have had a couple minor flow events up towards Weaverville. My biggest snow of the year was a 2+" whooper before Halloween (post Sandy). As Jason said yesterday the Asheville area seems to have slipped back into the pre 2009-2010 winter mode where we were always on the outside looking in.

Same here in Franklin, I agree with the east Tenn guys. The Gulf lows that ride up I-95 seem to be a thing of the past. I'm glad they cashed in yesterday they have been in a bad spot for a long time.

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0" on James Island. Haven't even gone below freezing this winter. Lowest temperature was 32.4 one morning. No measurable snow since December 26, 2010 (we had about .5"), and barely even a winter storm threat. January 10, 2011 was the last real winter weather in the Lowcountry; we had ice and sleet in the coastal areas, snow inland.

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These are the last 2 events not counting last nights bust for RDU...RDU is officially the snow hole of NC, not even close, I think people forget how bad Jan 10, 2011 was for central NC.  So the last 3 events this area has had RDU is by far the worst off.  And let's not bring up Dec 2000.

 

Oh yeah, and for the Jan 10, 2011 event, as it skipped over central NC, and creamed the MA and NE.

 

 

accum.20110110.gif

 

accum.20120219.gif

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 KATL: shooting blanks

 

1) 2011-2 no measurable at all last winter. 16 out of last 73 (22%) were that way. So, this isn't rare.

 

2) 2012-3: no measurable to date. However, there's obviously a long way to go.

 

3) Out of the 15 that had no measurable excluding 2011-2, 10 (67%) of the subsequent had measurable. Regarding the 10 that had measurable during the subsequent winter, 6 (60%) had measurable by the current date. The four that had the first measurable later than 1/18:

 

- 1952: 3.9" on 2/26

- 1958: 2.7" on 2/15

- 2004: 2.5" on 2/26

- 2007: 0.1" on 2/1

 

 

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Lessons learned from this storm:

 

1) It's extremely difficult to get snow in the Carolinas/N. Ga without an adequate cold air source in place. This was a strong upper level low on a decent track that STILL wasn't able to draw down enough cold air to change bountiful precip over to snow for many locations.

2) The models aren't as inept at anticipating boundary level issues as some might believe. The GFS never showed me getting under 35 while precip was falling -- it was spot-on. The NAM showed me getting to 32.5 with .6 inches of QPF to go -- not even close.

3) The NAM will always overstate snow/precip/cold air.

4) This board needs to be more respectful of dissenting voices -- anybody can find a place with rampant optimism and group think - but those who see problems with a potential storm should be free to express those doubts with out being labeled Debbie Downers. There is trolling and there is realism -- the latter should not just be tolerated, but should be welcomed. If we weren't all rooting for snow, we wouldn't be on this board, but it's possible to be rooting for snow and to take a balanced view of snow chances.

5) Nowcasting is important, but models can still deliver useful information, even within 12 hours of a storm's onset. The RAP showed a clear trend during the day Thursday to a) move the system slightly, but significantly farther north b}   weaken the upper level low 2-3 hours earlier. For those with open minds, this should have been a strong indicator that the storm might underperform.

6) This was a super-hard system to forecast -- Top 5 percent in difficulty -- it took good luck to get it right and bad to get it wrong.

7) Bet the streak

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CLT reported a trace. I saw very light snow mixed with rain with a few flakes mixed in. Last year all I got was literally about 20 minutes of heavy sleet. So this will be two years now for me

I'm just to the nw of KCLT and got nada. Of course it was snowing at Billy Graham and 85 according to my wife so I was close but no cigar. Oh well, maybe when skip stops with all his "reality" business we can get some mojo going down here lol. I kid I kid.

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I have had a couple minor flow events up towards Weaverville. My biggest snow of the year was a 2+" whooper before Halloween (post Sandy). As Jason said yesterday the Asheville area seems to have slipped back into the pre 2009-2010 winter mode where we were always on the outside looking in.

Ya seems that way Don. We have family in Weaverville who had the sam eas you while here in Haywood we had 5 inches. Amazing the difference a county over can make with snowfall. Well so far doing pretty well. 14 inches for the season and that matches last years total. Good luck to everyone for the rest of winter.

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I had one inch on 2/19/12 and one 1/2 inch on 1/17/13. Way I see it MBY needs about 15 inches to even things out climo speaking over the past 2 seasons.

 

Well I seem to have underestimated my snow total.  According to the HP Enterprise the NWS has Archdale with 5 inches.  I guessed 3".  Still have quite a bit of snow in my yard so maybe they are correct.

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