MJO Phase 8 Would Be Best Chance For Early February Snow And Cold

[bluewave]

The Euro ensembles are indicating that the MJO may enter phase 8 in early February.

While it isn't a guarantee of a decent snowfall, it represents a window of opportunity 

for us.

 

 

 

 

 

I was able to find 11 dates where we saw 5 inches or greater of snow in NYC since

1980 with the MJO entering phase 8.

 

2-11-06....26.9

 

 

1-26-11....19

 

 

1-22-05....13.8

2-24-05.....6.0

 

 

2-10-10....10.0

 

 

12-19-09....10.9

 

 

1-14-04....5.7

 

 

12-05-02...6.0

 

 

3-19-92...6.2

 

 

1-3-88...5.8

 

 

3-5-81...8.6

 

[nzucker]

I entirely agree...many tops mets, including HM, have been saying the PNA will spike to start February. This is supported by the MJO moving into Phase 8; when a Kelvin Wave crosses the tropical Pacific and warming occurs, you usually see a +PNA within 1-2 weeks. That time frame would be early Febraruy. The models are starting to hint at a favorable set-up for a snowstorm at that time period, with a large +PNA and a west-based -NAO trapping the PV in Canada:

 

You can also see a potential for another arctic outbreak on the models:

[Weathergun]

I agree too. This is 500mb composite the MJO in phase 8 in February. Big -NAO/+PNA and deep trough over the East:

 

[uncle W]

the snowfall in 1981 was caused by a cold front...We had SW winds most of the storm...I think that's the only time I saw a snowstorm with sw winds...

[famartin]

the snowfall in 1981 was caused by a cold front...We had SW winds most of the storm...I think that's the only time I saw a snowstorm with sw winds...

You've got a great memory unc... but I think I may have to disagree on this one.  Maybe there were southwest winds, but I don't think there was a cold front...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1981/us0305.php

[Weathergun]

GEFS and Euro ensemble MJO forecasts looking better today. Stronger pulse in phase 8:

 

 

Also the GFS superensemble analog D+11 composite has the -AO,-NAO,-EPO pattern reloading at the end of this month:

 

 

[Isotherm]

Strongly agree w/ everyone in this thread. This is the highest amplitude MJO wave into favorable phases that we've seen in some time. It's maintenance into phase 8 should ensure a reloading of the PNA/EPO ridging in conjunction w/ the already negative AO. The next few weeks will probably bring our snowiest/coldest weather since 2011.

[CIK62]

Atmosphere just keeps conjuring up the models into showing cold, snow or both in the 10-16 day time frame w/o producing.    This started in mid-Dec. and promised arctic cold by new year's eve., a storm on 1/2-3 would bring in more arctic air but we only received 3 somewhat below normal days.   Until Monday only 5 days had been below normal since Dec. 01 in CPK regardless of any model output and banter here.

Now with another prospective failure on the 25th-26th. all eyes look toward Feb. 2-3.    I feel like I am on a merry-go-round and the more I stretch off my horse to grab the golden ring, the farther away it gets, till I either fall off the ride or it ends, by April 07, I should say!    Hey, I'll pay another fare.....but I like March 01 for a blizzard ala March 01, 1914, since we did not set a new low pressure record during Sandy in NYC-----stopping @ about 28.50", short of all time record of 28.38".

Just some random thoughts here while I contemplate throwing some snowballs around.

[famartin]

Atmosphere just keeps conjuring up the models into showing cold, snow or both in the 10-16 day time frame w/o producing.   

 

I could be wrong, but I do think its cold right now...

[Brian5671]

Atmosphere just keeps conjuring up the models into showing cold, snow or both in the 10-16 day time frame w/o producing.    This started in mid-Dec. and promised arctic cold by new year's eve., a storm on 1/2-3 would bring in more arctic air but we only received 3 somewhat below normal days.   Until Monday only 5 days had been below normal since Dec. 01 in CPK regardless of any model output and banter here.

Now with another prospective failure on the 25th-26th. all eyes look toward Feb. 2-3.    I feel like I am on a merry-go-round and the more I stretch off my horse to grab the golden ring, the farther away it gets, till I either fall off the ride or it ends, by April 07, I should say!    Hey, I'll pay another fare.....but I like March 01 for a blizzard ala March 01, 1914, since we did not set a new low pressure record during Sandy in NYC-----stopping @ about 28.50", short of all time record of 28.38".

Just some random thoughts here while I contemplate throwing some snowballs around.

Agree for the most part, although we are solidly cold right now finally after several false starts as you state.   But w/o any southern stream, we've simply moved from warm and dry to cold and dry....

[pazzo83]

I could be wrong, but I do think its cold right now...

 

I can verify that it is, in fact, cold at this moment.