Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Tip, would the corollary to your theory mean a growing imbalance between the cold to the north and warm to the south? An imbalance that begs to be corrected via a superstorm...perhaps when the wavelengths begin to shorten? First of all, not a theory - just a supposition, but one I feel has merit and should be explored, possibly leading to theory. To your first question, it would not be a "growing" imbalance, because if it has merit, it is already there. But I think that's what you meant - To your 2nd question. Yes. I am a warm to the notion that GW would lead to increased frequency of larger winter events, provided the gradient is there. And much because if the gradients are larger, you have more potential energy. Note I say "winter" events. I say that because those are manufactured by planetary wave translations - but that's a digression. This run of the GFS sort of illustrates that. Not saying its right, but even though suppressed character to the flow has relaxed by the end of this week, the waves them selves are still moving along too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 00z Euro looks like a benchmark type track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wtf on the 6Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 EC ens mean is north of the op with QPF. I'm still not worried about suppression...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wtf on the 6Z GFS? Don't worry about that----that paltry event gets folllowed by heavy rains the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This has the looks of a nice 6-12 inch regionwide event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This has the looks of a nice 6-12 inch regionwide event LOL. We hope. A bit too far south for my liking. ALMOST ALL OF SNE WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMS PERHAPS ADV LEVEL...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE. IF THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PERHAPS SEE ABOVE 6 INCHES. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW AND WILL WANT TO WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS HAVE BETTER CONSISTENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 EC ens mean is north of the op with QPF. I'm still not worried about suppression...yet. But in the back of your mind.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 But in the back of your mind.............. I've already accepted it, but hopefully things will play out differently. BTW, Jeff--my wife is deeply disappointed that you changed your name back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I've already accepted it, but hopefully things will play out differently. BTW, Jeff--my wife is deeply disappointed that you changed your name back. lol, I did it just for her tell her................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 06z was interesting lol. I'm sti not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 06z was interesting lol. I'm sti not too worried. Some nice hits amongst the 06 ensm. Like the setup a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks good enough at this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 There are some meh members on the ensembles so something to watch, but for now...I think SNE is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 There are some meh members on the ensembles so something to watch, but for now...I think SNE is ok.always have to have a little caution. It wouldn't be the same without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 There are some meh members on the ensembles so something to watch, but for now...I think SNE is ok. When should we give credence to these far southern solutions? By 12z Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 always have to have a little caution. It wouldn't be the same without it Well 5 days out, we know things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 When should we give credence to these far southern solutions? By 12z Wednesday? Something like that, but I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro ensembles were a SNE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Low looks much better here. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the changes are p[retty big from 6z Low looks much better here. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 the changes are p[retty big from 6z Good example of why people shouldn't be living and dying with every model run at 108 hours out or more. The general synoptic setup remains intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Really nice snowstorm, verbatim, for all of SNE on the 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Really nice snowstorm, verbatim, for all of SNE on the 12z GFS today. The setup looks good, now: does it hold relatively steady to the point of being able to build confidence in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The setup looks good, now: does it hold relatively steady to the point of being able to build confidence in it? Having the Euro Ensm on our side is a good sign. Plenty can still change as alluded to in this timeframe but I fell pretty confident for most of SNE on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I've already accepted it, but hopefully things will play out differently. BTW, Jeff--my wife is deeply disappointed that you changed your name back. Lol..I've never seen a guy who gets so much snow worry so much..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z nogaps. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/00znogaps850mbTSLPp12120.gif 12z same. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=tau&area=fnmoc_namerτ=108&dtg=2013012112&set=All This will not be suppressed. Nogaps amped nearly always signals that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z nogaps. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/00znogaps850mbTSLPp12120.gif Schwartz Synoptic Seven 12z same. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=tau&area=fnmoc_namerτ=108&dtg=2013012112&set=AllSchwartz Synoptic Seven This will not be suppressed. Nogaps amped nearly always signals that. Schwartz Synoptic Seven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12 GFS Ensm. mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Having the Euro Ensm on our side is a good sign. Plenty can still change as alluded to in this timeframe but I fell pretty confident for most of SNE on this one. There's nothing quite like having good cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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