powderfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 It happens sometimes with overrunning events. 2011 we started a SWFE below zero. Full fledged coastals are definitely rare. Valentines Day 2007 up here...I remember a bunch of us BTV area folks were posting about the coldest synoptic snow we'd ever seen. The first foot of that was under 10F, and the first 6" were low single digits. Second foot fell in the mid teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Uncooperate lack of -NAO (or too east based) is leaving us open to torch upon torch this winter. 12z ECM is a torch at Day 9-10 with 8C 850s moving into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. Would be a very short-lived cold spell if that occurred. Hope the reload happens fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z ECM is a torch at Day 9-10 with 8C 850s moving into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. Would be a very short-lived cold spell if that occurred. Hope the reload happens fast. I wouldn't worry too much Nate. The cold air will likely hang on especially if we have some snow cover to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice! The UK largely missed the earlier cold wave in Europe (when I was 8F in Poland in Dec), but this one has build back far enough west for them. My friend in Lincolnshire got 8 inches the other day. didn't 12-19-08 start really cold? In London btw...snowing all day here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks good there to me. Also I suspect they get some bouts of LES during this week. It's not like Pulaski, but decent plumes can reach that area. Feels good to be an honorary New Englander You are always welcomed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Judging from my cousin's FB picture, it looks like the east side of London (Wanstead) got a few inches. When it snows in London, I feel like it is on its way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Feels good to be an honorary New Englander Welcome to the good side of the force, young jedi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Here's a leap, ...but interesting: maybe the plaguing fast flow is a result of a cold polar cycle taking place amid a background Global Warming; such that the mean gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels is anomalously large. Tip, would the corollary to your theory mean a growing imbalance between the cold to the north and warm to the south? An imbalance that begs to be corrected via a superstorm...perhaps when the wavelengths begin to shorten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z ECM is a torch at Day 9-10 with 8C 850s moving into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. Would be a very short-lived cold spell if that occurred. Hope the reload happens fast. Thats the re-load occurring, the GFS has been onto that idea for days, some sort of big cutter around that Day 10 perioid then the ridge re-builds out west and it gets cold again, there will be some sort of big Midwest event though around the 3oth, alot of models have shown that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Sux that each one of these reoads essentailly wipes out all snow around greater Albany. It's just that kind of winter it seems. I'm reduced to maybe 60% minor snowcover on fields here now with still probably 4-5 inches in the woods. Gonna go snow shoeing now on my wooded trails, but just passable. Flurries or minor squall seems to have started here. Thats the re-load occurring, the GFS has been onto that idea for days, some sort of big cutter around that Day 10 perioid then the ridge re-builds out west and it gets cold again, there will be some sort of big Midwest event though around the 3oth, alot of models have shown that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro ensemble looks pretty similar to the OP, but as you might expect in a SWFE at D5, a shade colder/south of the OP. OP has the low over ERI at 120h while ens mean has it over OH/PA/WV tristate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro ensemble looks pretty similar to the OP, but as you might expect in a SWFE at D5, a shade colder/south of the OP. OP has the low over ERI at 120h while ens mean has it over OH/PA/WV tristate area. And just SE of Montauk, LI at 132h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 And just SE of Montauk, LI at 132h. Good track for much of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Any one else noticed the #15 analogue? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&map=COOP%20SNOW&sort=FINAL I'm a fan. lol I do have a feeling that this weekend could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Good track for much of SNE. Good track for most everybody in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Well 18z GFS sneaks the heaviest over NYC. Cya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice! The UK largely missed the earlier cold wave in Europe (when I was 8F in Poland in Dec), but this one has build back far enough west for them. My friend in Lincolnshire got 8 inches the other day. looks like about 3-4 inches in all day light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Toss the GFS, The euro is prime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Pretty standard to have this oscilliation. Looks good to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I like where the GFS has this one right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Leave it to the 18z DGEX to clobber everyone... CNE/NNE get the first part of the event... then SE New England gets smoked by the second portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Leave it to the 18z DGEX to clobber everyone... CNE/NNE get the first part of the event... then SE New England gets smoked by the second portion. A relative fail for both for MRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 00z GFS looks to continue suppression depression. Hopefully it blows up last minute. EDIT: South of the Pike special. More like NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 OMG it looks fine guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 OMG it looks fine guys. Yeah...should just be glad it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 OMG it looks fine guys. Yeah qpf fetishes going on. Synoptically it looks just fine. It's not going to jackpot our bys every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks pretty damn good, especially down by the coast. Great track. but it doesn't bring precip very far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I like where we sit wrt GFS in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Timing shifting around a bit. 12z had a midnight-noon friday event. 00z is mostly a friday night event. But I like where we sit at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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