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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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Well it's been fun tracking, will enjoy the inch and look on to greater things, sadly there is not much in the future in the way of greater things according to the models but oh well, cold temps make for nice snowmaking and good skiing! Pending a miracle on 12z(which I think will be worse than 6z), this is done.

 

Skiing should be great this weekend with the whole week to make cold snow so if you are starved for snow get out and get some man made! Know I will be out enjoying what we have.

 

-skisheep

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I thought we would have some chances with the ridge out west, but it just wasn't amped up enough and the flow too progressive. I was wrong about that. It's interesting because the model the hinted at this was the operational GFS. When it shows no storms..kind of a red flag. I always harp on the GFS op showing hints at a pattern..but didn't take my own advice. 

 

At least going forward it does show several storms in the vicinity. 

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fwiw, I think we get a period of deep snow and winter this year.  I suppose it is possible that all the good cold is wasted, but that would be pretty unusual.  I can't see it staying this dry through february given the strat warm and the mjo seeming to move into the best phases for us at the best part of winter for snow climatologically.  unfortunately it might come late so it isn't as fun as 3 months of deep snowpack.  But I think we get it eventually.

 

It is frustrating, but this is New England and we shouldn't whine too much.

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I thought we would have some chances with the ridge out west, but it just wasn't amped up enough and the flow too progressive. I was wrong about that. It's interesting because the model the hinted at this was the operational GFS. When it shows no storms..kind of a red flag. I always harp on the GFS op showing hints at a pattern..but didn't take my own advice. 

 

At least going forward it does show several storms in the vicinity. 

can you say more about storm possibilities over the next 7-14?

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And some of these right behind it............. :weenie: :weenie:

 

Our best chance in the reasonable term is the post frontal system I mentioned yesterday that comes in around the 31st give or take.  That could be our major event, or should be for at least some of the region.

 

After that I think we end up in a similar pattern with a ridge not quite strong enough to do much and a system trajectory similar to what we have now.  That's JMHO and it's very early.

 

Maybe a system threat around the 6th through the 9th.   And we can always hope for a last minute pop.

 

If I had to guess I'd forecast just flurries and snow showers right now for Friday night.  Maybe the Cape gets a couple of inches and the high ground.  I doubt I surpass the .8" I got a week ago from storm 1.

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can you say more about storm possibilities over the next 7-14?

 

Well some sort of mess coming next week. Perhaps preceded by a weak WAA light snow event Monday or Tuesday. Then perhaps some sort of ice to rain or just plain mixed precip in NNE mid week next week. I think we warm sector down here, but probably for 24 hrs or so. Maybe 36.

 

Afterwards we get cold, but I couldn't say when the next snow is. Maybe to start Feb? 2/2 or 2/3 ish??

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I thought we would have some chances with the ridge out west, but it just wasn't amped up enough and the flow too progressive. I was wrong about that. It's interesting because the model the hinted at this was the operational GFS. When it shows no storms..kind of a red flag. I always harp on the GFS op showing hints at a pattern..but didn't take my own advice. 

 

At least going forward it does show several storms in the vicinity. 

 

 

It did not work out, I know the month looked good, But i think there were some flags as well that you guys tossed around

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Our best chance in the reasonable term is the post frontal system I mentioned yesterday that comes in around the 31st give or take.  That could be our major event, or should be for at least some of the region.

 

After that I think we end up in a similar pattern with a ridge not quite strong enough to do much and a system trajectory similar to what we have now.  That's JMHO and it's very early.

 

Maybe a system threat around the 6th through the 9th.   And we can always hope for a last minute pop.

 

If I had to guess I'd forecast just flurries and snow showers right now for Friday night.  Maybe the Cape gets a couple of inches and the high ground.  I doubt I surpass the .8" I got a week ago from storm 1.

 

I don't place much stock in post frontal systems

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Yeah there were, but I thought it would be a little better here. Still, I was 40 miles from getting ok snow. Can't get that precise..lol.

 

 

If you could, You probably would never have to work again...........lol, Other then the 2 storms here in Dec 27,29th It has been abysmal by our standards, Even some coastal communities here have more snow pack then i have

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Well some sort of mess coming next week. Perhaps preceded by a weak WAA light snow event Monday or Tuesday. Then perhaps some sort of ice to rain or just plain mixed precip in NNE mid week next week. I think we warm sector down here, but probably for 24 hrs or so. Maybe 36.

 

Afterwards we get cold, but I couldn't say when the next snow is. Maybe to start Feb? 2/2 or 2/3 ish??

I wonder how these will trend....HPC is on board for organized heavier precip.   Does the setup and MJO phase suggest it trends colder as we get closer?  Any sign of sneaky highs in SE canada?  It is late Jan and there is great antecedent and snowpack.  I feel moderately optimistic particularly longer term.  Don S is awfully good for the long term it seems...and he seems optimistic for Feb.

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I wonder how these will trend....HPC is on board for organized heavier precip. Does the setup and MJO phase suggest it trends colder as we get closer? Any sign of sneaky highs in SE canada? It is late Jan and there is great antecedent and snowpack. I feel moderately optimistic particularly longer term. Don S is awfully good for the long term it seems...and he seems optimistic for Feb.

This airmass may be tough to dislodge in NNE so Im not sure you guys will get mild. Different down here obviously, but only for 1-2 days perhaps.

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