January 25-26 Storm Potential

[It's Always Sunny]

 

Ukie still generous to Cape. Equates to about 0.2 inches of QPF, but I'm thinking favorable snow growth could give them more? Not a true expert in that area if someone wanted to elaborate.

[rgwp96]

since it wont snow much might as look a something positive of the cold, well at least the ice will get really thick on the lakes lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

as far as I know...AGW would tend to reduce the hemispheric gradients.

 

The pole warms faster than the tropics - no, doesn't work that way.  There is a split in the Hadley cells.  The polar mediums are warming, as are the tropics, true, but they still go through their local time scale oscillations.  In this situation, I really think that the tropics are statically elevated associated with GW, while the polarward domains are delivering cold, you have increased gradient. 

[OSUmetstud]

Ah, it's just an idea dude.   First of all, I did not say GW caused colder than normal conditions N - though I understand why you went there. After all, they are part of the Globe - word. But no.  This is a cold solar cycle because the hundreds of years super-position of the solar cycles, combined with the multi-decadal EPO/AO/NAO negative "part" of the oscillatory curve.  

 

Cause?  Hey man, give a guess.  It's just the linear interpretation there, and anyone in 101 climo knows that.  Point is, the probability is sloped toward polar giving up the goods. But the GW part of that means that ambient heat is in surplus.  So what happens when cold delivery attempts to supplant the warmth?   BIG GRADIENT. 

but agw in general causes more warming in the arctic than it does further south, so wouldn't that reduce the gradients across the hemisphere?  You seem to advancing some sort of idea that the warming is in place somewhere across the mid-latitudes and the subtropics while the arctic is unaffected...then it bangs into it?  I'm not sure that makes any physical sense.

 

We did just have a year in 2010-2011 where fast flow wasn't an issue.  Not to mention many before that.

[OSUmetstud]

as far as I know...AGW would tend to reduce the hemispheric gradients.

 

The pole warms faster than the tropics - no, doesn't work that way.  There is a split in the Hadley cells.  The polar mediums are warming, as are the tropics, true, but they still go through their local time scale oscillations.  In this situation, I really think that the tropics are statically elevated associated with GW, while the polarward domains are delivering cold, you have increased gradient. 

yes, it does.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Here's the GEFS from 0z.  No sense waiting for the Euro, off to bed.

 

[RI Rob]

 

 

Would be happy for this but I think its a little bit high.

[It's Always Sunny]

Would be happy for this but I think its a little bit high.

I wouldn't rule that out. Cape may be slightly high imo but it's still early to confirm that.

[Typhoon Tip]

 OSUmetstud, not sure which to apply to...  The 2nd you responded to:  Written poorly on my part, my apologies. Yes, GW is more evident north, but, if the north enters a colder cycle, which it has, that means that the gradients are large.   When I said it doesn't work that way, what I meant was, it's not that simple. The former sentences hint at why. The impetus there is that the polar domains don't heat up along a constant curve. There are cold intervals along the way - what complicates that further is that they warm, but relative to the middle latitudes, they are still cold, so delivery biases on the positive side still cause the increased gradient, because the tropics aren't going anywhere.

 

The first reply, "so wouldn't that reduce the gradients across the hemisphere?"  Not necessarily, because again, there is a disconnect between cycles between the N and S domains. It makes perfect physical sense when understanding that the Hadley Cell weakly separates the N and the S.  So many hundreds of years in the future when there are palms growing in NS, this may not be true. But for the time being, delivering 0C cold to a middle latitudes "might" just be contributing to enhanced gradient and super fast flows.  

[It's Always Sunny]

Typhoon and OSUmetstud get a conference room your disco is off topic.

[Typhoon Tip]

Typhoon and OSUmetstud get a conference room your disco is off topic.

 

No it's not - I feel if folks understood this, they might get some intuitive understanding on why THIS and the other events, are being handled poorly by models that unilaterally perform poorly during progressive flows. 

[OSUmetstud]

 OSUmetstud, not sure which to apply to...  The 2nd you responded to:  Written poorly on my part, my apologies. Yes, GW is more evident north, but, if the north enters a colder cycle, which it has, that means that the gradients are large.   When I said it doesn't work that way, what I meant was, it's not that simple. The former sentences hint at why. The impetus there is that the polar domains don't heat up along a constant curve. There are cold intervals along the way - what complicates that further is that they warm, but relative to the middle latitudes, they are still cold, so delivery biases on the positive side still cause the increased gradient, because the tropics aren't going anywhere.

 

The first reply, "so wouldn't that reduce the gradients across the hemisphere?"  Not necessarily, because again, there is a disconnect between cycles between the N and S domains. It makes perfect physical sense when understanding that the Hadley Cell weakly separates the N and the S. 

I'd like to hear HM, Phil, and Adam weigh in on this.  I bet it has something to do with the AAM, GLAMM, qbo, tropical strat temps etc. of which my understanding is limited...rather than AGW.

[N. OF PIKE]

i'm pretty confident we can probably get a couple solid rain events, snow not so much, but some nice late jan/early feb rain, then a cold shot, with another roll of the cosmic dildo dice.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd like to hear HM, Phil, and Adam weigh in on this.  I bet it has something to do with the AAM, GLAMM, qbo, tropical strat temps etc. of which my understanding is limited...rather than AGW.

 

Fair enough, but I would leave the "A" out of GW, for now -

[joey2002]

Looks like pretty much everything points to a fish storm now.  Maybe a couple fluffy inches.

[Typhoon Tip]

If anyone is still listening at this late hour, here is the problem with this winter...  WE KEEP F RETURNING TO THIS SAME CONSTRUCT!   Combined with what OSU' and I were discussing:

 

[joey2002]

Groundhog day...

[Ji]

If anyone is still listening at this late hour, here is the problem with this winter... WE KEEP F RETURNING TO THIS SAME CONSTRUCT! Combined with what OSU' and I were discussing:

I liked you better when you thought everything would be a snowstorm

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

This is a dud of an event, not expecting a whole bunch of snow with this system, flow is too fast and it won't slow down any for the arctic jet to catch up to the northern jet stream.

[joey2002]

This is a dud of an event, not expecting a whole bunch of snow with this system, flow is too fast and it won't slow down any for the arctic jet to catch up to the northern jet stream.

 

Even the gulf stream can't save us now...

[bboughton]

Was EURO bad too?

[joey2002]

Was EURO bad too?

 

Yeah, Euro was ugly, hardly gives us anything. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

NAM still offers us some hope, but is still wayyy too far southeast for anything substantial.  This really sucks.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

THis might be a nowcast event, considering how poorly the models have been with recent storms, I'm not saying anything substantial happens, but a few inches remain possible for SErn New England.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's be happy with a few inches..it's better than nothing. The tickling is over for this one.

 

At least the mild up next week is just about gone

[weathafella]

Let's be happy with a few inches..it's better than nothing. The tickling is over for this one.

 

At least the mild up next week is just about gone

Except for the euro ensembles which bring warm days to us tuesday/Wednesday.

GEFS a tad less mild. But a growing torch signal to me for a day or 2 next week. Remember what winter this is....this winter.

[CoastalWx]

Except for the euro ensembles which bring warm days to us tuesday/Wednesday.

GEFS a tad less mild. But a growing torch signal to me for a day or 2 next week. Remember what winter this is....this winter.

Yea we'll torch for at least a day or so. Then we get into the good stuff after.

[weathafella]

I'm still not baling on the possibility of a few inches Friday night/sat. Wouldn't take much. Predominantly dry pattern is killing us.

[CoastalWx]

I'm still not baling on the possibility of a few inches Friday night/sat. Wouldn't take much. Predominantly dry pattern is killing us.

Both models offer an inch or two. The s/w is crossing the mtns so we'll see how it looks on guidance soon. It may look worse or a tiny bit better. So much for some calls going for a mix on the Cape.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's a 1-3 inch event regionwide. Even for the Cape.That's it..No more, no less. Take it..it's snow