bboughton Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Noyes still convinced. Out on that limb all alone again: http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2013/01/daily-forecast-frigid-weather-continues-thursday-for-new-england-some-snow-likely-friday-night.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 "I agree with that. As of right now probably not much more given it even surpasses it, but the possibility still lingers. 00Z Euro is going to be huge tonight." When does the Euro come out?? Around 100-130am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nobody gives a **** about your BY.... Actually, I do, I like when people get snow, even if it's not imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 "I agree with that. As of right now probably not much more given it even surpasses it, but the possibility still lingers. 00Z Euro is going to be huge tonight." When does the Euro come out?? It Initializes @12:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SW winds from the surface up through 8h, any chance of OES from the SW on this one overnight Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks for the help guys, wish I could throw my opinion around but models still make no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Noyes still convinced. Out on that limb all alone again: http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2013/01/daily-forecast-frigid-weather-continues-thursday-for-new-england-some-snow-likely-friday-night.html I give him credit for going out on the limb like that. My forecast numbers are far more conservative lol. I just don't see that type of event happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I remember scooter was saying this could be better for e ma since the low may take a bit more ,northerly track once it gets se of ack, or somethin like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I remember scooter was saying this could be better for e ma since the low may take a bit more ,northerly track once it gets se of ack, or somethin like that That was when the low was tracking closer to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Like Will said, there is no 2009-2010 block wall preventing this from coming north. However, the fast flow may prevent this from amplifying in time. My call would be a glancing blow (couple inches CC) and that's about it. Go with the seasonal winter x2 trend. Also, slowly aborting this winter...will wait until 2/10ish before committing (or de-comitting myself) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Harv at 11pm has Boston to just about south Worcester back through Kevin and into SE NY, looping down around to about Plymouth in the 1-3" range (includes Providence etc). 2-6" over Cape Cod, New Bedford, Fall River, SE CT and Long Island. EDIT forgot about the rest of you, 0-2" from Portland to Albany to Scranton and Allentown. Nothing NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Like Will said, there is no 2009-2010 block wall preventing this from coming north. However, the fast flow may prevent this from amplifying in time. My call would be a glancing blow (couple inches CC) and that's about it. Go with the seasonal winter x2 trend. Also, slowly aborting this winter...will wait until 2/10ish before committing (or de-comitting myself) Mainly zonal flow is killing this thing right now. I also think if temps weren't as cold we would see a further north track. I'm thinking C-2" for my area as of right now too (just south of Boston). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Exactly 1.9 inches for BOS to tie last years full winter total. Exactly 2 to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Exactly 1.9 inches for BOS to tie last years full winter total. Exactly 2 to break it. Would like to get it on this system. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Exactly 1.9 inches for BOS to tie last years full winter total. Exactly 2 to break it. Harv's graphic has Boston getting 1.3" (what I think is the RPM?) The GGEM says you wait longer, shield your eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lol 2" for that it can just go ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Boiling point is soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Seems reasonable. Similar to BOX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's all the same as before with these runs being presented... the flow is too f fast guys. If for some reason the Euro and the Uk somehow overcome the speed in the flow, fine, but I'm getting increasingly suspicious that GW during a cold polar cycle is just a giant shear fest. wtf - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So pretty much if this EURO comes back as a big miss and is worse then the previous run, we should just throw this out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So pretty much if this EURO comes back as a big miss and is worse then the previous run, we should just throw this out? Throw it out by Sunday. Off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So pretty much if this EURO comes back as a big miss and is worse then the previous run, we should just throw this out? I never want to say throw out, but it makes the likelihood of an event that warrants large amounts of interest less. 00Z GFS wasn't what 18Z GFS was. I expect the Euro to do the same in regards to trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's all the same as before with these runs being presented... the flow is too f fast guys. If for some reason the Euro and the Uk somehow overcome the speed in the flow, fine, but I'm getting increasingly suspicious that GW during a cold polar cycle is just a giant shear fest. wtf - why would gw cause warmer than normal conditions in the subtropics and colder than normal conditions in Canada and the mid-latitudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This was never supposed to be a huge event. Someone can argue 5-days out it was but you can't rely on models that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 why would gw cause warmer than normal conditions in the subtropics and colder than normal conditions in Canada and the mid-latitudes? The 1980s were notorious for this. It's definitely not GW...IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 1980s were notorious for this. It's definitely not GW...IMHO. as far as I know...AGW would tend to reduce the hemispheric gradients. The pole warms faster than the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 UKMET I believe is way east too. I haven't followed it that closely, but it looks like a 1010mb low way out in the atlantic SE/E of the BM by 12z Saturday. has the 2nd contour over SE New England for QPF and measurable over most. But the serious stuff is way SE this run. Looks like it's every model aside of the NAM went the other way. Here's the NOGAPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Winters over for me. Mindblowing. I'm off this one good luck chatham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 why would gw cause warmer than normal conditions in the subtropics and colder than normal conditions in Canada and the mid-latitudes? Ah, it's just an idea dude. First of all, I did not say GW caused colder than normal conditions N - though I understand why you went there. After all, they are part of the Globe - word. But no. This is a cold solar cycle because the hundreds of years super-position of the solar cycles, combined with the multi-decadal EPO/AO/NAO negative "part" of the oscillatory curve. Cause? Hey man, give a guess. It's just the linear interpretation there, and anyone in 101 climo knows that. Point is, the probability is sloped toward polar giving up the goods. But the GW part of that means that ambient heat is in surplus. So what happens when cold delivery attempts to supplant the warmth? BIG GRADIENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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