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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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Exactly, which is why NCEP schedules G4 drop sonde missions during higher stakes scenarios - it's because the assimilations schemes are SO dependable   :arrowhead:

no...they do it to improve them. that's not the point.

 

do you know that over 90% of the data that goes into NWP is satellite derived? my point on this is the satellite data is good. there's no questions. it's very good. 

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dude, what makes no sense?  it was pretty clear already.. you used the world tickle.. I asked why everyone was using the word tickle and they said CTblizz made it a fad.. that's it.

 

 

Forget it - I'm a moron.  I didn't see the point of what was going on.  sorry

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no...they do it to improve them. that's not the point.

 

do you know that over 90% of the data that goes into NWP is satellite derived? my point on this is the satellite data is good. there's no questions. it's very good. 

 

 

Well, yeah I agree there.  When I have brought it up in the past it wasn't for trying to dream up a better scenario out of data sparseness.  I think we're probably talking about the same thing actually 

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the nam really keeps all the good stuff offshore. the GFS had a much more favorable look.

 

 

It does, BUT, it deepening much fast and is slightly closer at 60 hours ... probably because the S/W dynamics are just tickling the west coast of N/A 

 

 

ah hahahaahahahah

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RGEM is out, here's what I saw:

The 0z weakened the energy running along the border. Look at the 522 line 48h 12z vs 36h 0z. The flow has lifted north somewhat in conjunction. Ridging out west is a little less. It's a little less moist in the origination area for the storm. I don't see anything in that model run that makes me think we're going to see a jump in the GGEM beyond bringing it into the fold possibly of the Euro/GFS blend.

RGEM pretty meh....I thought it regressed slightly from its 12z/18z look.

Yeah, that's my take too. Nothing to see there that would make one expect a huge surprise from the GGEM.

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