CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Man this has a sneaky CCB look for the Cape and even se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This. This doesn't really seem to be much of an issue. There does seem to be a tune upwards to s/w strength exiting the Rockies, not sure why though. I understand the point that everyone is making and they are valid points to some extent. But, you are talking small details with exchange between a very complex long wave. How much "vorticity" is "lost" is rather important and a small uptick will mean a whole lot for southern New England and coastal Mid Atlantic. If you think the small differences are negligible then may I remind you how insane the NWP has been up until this point. There is a reason. And this period of time was warned by me to be quite unpredictable for a reason, but that's getting off point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Agreed...I honestly don't know how you do it lol. I'd be flipping out at people left and right. It's just weather after all, I was thinking about how much I love trudging through a freshly fallen deep snow pack and how long it's been since I've had that at home. But to make it bring your mood down just isn't worth it. Maybe when we have one that looks promising go to hell I'll be a little cranky for an afternoon or something but beyond that, it's just not worth being upset over missing snow storms. Even in 2010-2011 I missed boxing day because I was down in DC with family for the holidays then missed the early january KU because I was in the hospital in DC with a dying family member. So I've missed pretty much all the big storms but no complaints, cause it's just the weather and we have to take what we get. I know eventually one of these storms will work out, hopefully before I leave for residency after next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Where have you been? LOL every day I take exception to what Kevin writes. I'm never mean. Find me a post where I insulted someone. The day I do that is the day I leave the board. Once in a while I may have a strong opinion, but I'll do it in a classy way. The DT way of doing things is not me. It's all good, everyone is getting impatient. If I get a dusting, I'll be sure to give you props. I'm never afraid to bust and I'll give props when needed. Scott, I have a lot of respect for you, maybe I mistook the post earlier today and that jaded the rest. I don't believe I ever said you'd get a dusting. I figured a coating to 2" here, and for this moment I'll stay with that pending the GEFS making a solid shift. Personally I've seen the GEFS/GFS/NAM performance the past week or so and will wait until the GGEM/Euro come around. The Euro ENS is pretty impressive. Seeing that I'd probably have gone to 1-3" here if I had to forecast with the potential for OES adding more. But....we'll see. Most tracks are still SE of the BM as of now. The 18z GEFS is again better, my only question will be how much precip falls NW of the main band. The last one I thought was a duck all along. I said it as subtly as I could. If I'd come out and said no snow for most anyone that would have caused an uproar, so it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. That's part of the problem.... Lastly people can change their mind. Saying "wait"...and changing a forecast isn't really any different if the premise behind what we all do here is to try to have a forecast discussion because presumably the person arguing for waiting believes things may change, while the person making a statement acknowledges what they think may change. JMHO, I don't understand the hangup about that unless people really believe what is typed here has some magical influence on the weather like poor data assimilation over the Pacific. Scott as someone that does have respect for you I thought you were pretty hard on Ginxy and others at times. I guess once again the internet didn't convey the tone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this data coming onshore thing is such a weenie myth. of course if there was some ridiculously dense sounding grid that covered all of the west coast and up into canada and balloons were launched all the time and airplanes just flew all over that airspace covering every inch...then yes...yes that would make sense. but the idea that a piece of energy comes ashore is suddenly sampled so much better is just wrong. once in a weenie-while it might happen. I'd never say it can't but this is one of these 20 or 30 year old weather model ideas. if it were actually true that the satellite and aircraft data assimilation sucked that bad over the Pacific...none of the models would work. they'd be all f=ed up all the time. You are missing some key things here that usually weaken sensitive s/w like this when we have a semi-progressive flow: 1. Inertial acceleration is usually overestimated. 2. Angular momentum and vorticity exchange among deep cyclones is usually a crap shoot and small details matter. 3. Mountains and their influence on the flow and how much amplification remains. Models can overestimate the loss of "energy" due to all 3 things rather easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Man this has a sneaky CCB look for the Cape and even se ma. Stop being so darn cranky man. It's going out to sea. Show some optimism once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wonder where the Warministas are hiding I might pull a -20 today Its like pacman taking a bite out of those + ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I understand the point that everyone is making and they are valid points to some extent. But, you are talking small details with exchange between a very complex long wave. How much "vorticity" is "lost" is rather important and a small uptick will mean a whole lot for southern New England and coastal Mid Atlantic. If you think the small differences are negligible then may I remind you how insane the NWP has been up until this point. There is a reason. And this period of time was warned by me to be quite unpredictable for a reason, but that's getting off point. HM, have you come across anything definitive on the issue? It's a real thing, we'll be able to watch the s/w involved tick up in strength as it rolls east out of the rockies in a day or two. I've just never been able to get my head around what causes it. Is it the assimilation into the model with some smoothing to prevent major bumps....I almost lean towards this because the Euro seems less prone to major swings, the NAM the most prone. IE the models we see that ramp up the strength of s/ws over the course of 6 or 12 hours are the ones that seem to be the most volatile. You're preaching to the choir on the small differences. In these last three scenarios, all had the potential to be something much larger in the strike zones, the first two failed, let's see what this does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Scott, I have a lot of respect for you, maybe I mistook the post earlier today and that jaded the rest. I don't believe I ever said you'd get a dusting. I figured a coating to 2" here, and for this moment I'll stay with that pending the GEFS making a solid shift. Personally I've seen the GEFS/GFS/NAM performance the past week or so and will wait until the GGEM/Euro come around. The Euro ENS is pretty impressive. Seeing that I'd probably have gone to 1-3" here if I had to forecast with the potential for OES adding more. But....we'll see. Most tracks are still SE of the BM as of now. The 18z GEFS is again better, my only question will be how much precip falls NW of the main band. The last one I thought was a duck all along. I said it as subtly as I could. If I'd come out and said no snow for most anyone that would have caused an uproar, so it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. That's part of the problem.... Lastly people can change their mind. Saying "wait"...and changing a forecast isn't really any different if the premise behind what we all do here is to try to have a forecast discussion because presumably the person arguing for waiting believes things may change, while the person making a statement acknowledges what they think may change. JMHO, I don't understand the hangup about that unless people really believe what is typed here has some magical influence on the weather like poor data assimilation over the Pacific. Scott as someone that does have respect for you I thought you were pretty hard on Ginxy and others at times. I guess once again the internet didn't convey the tone. It's all good. If I came across like that than my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You are missing some key things here that usually weaken sensitive s/w like this when we have a semi-progressive flow: 1. Inertial acceleration is usually overestimated. 2. Angular momentum and vorticity exchange among deep cyclones is usually a crap shoot and small details matter. 3. Mountains and their influence on the flow and how much amplification remains. Models can overestimate the loss of "energy" due to all 3 things rather easily. I agree with these things. However, I think he was speaking about the overall attitude that some have regarding raobs. If some low is 500 miles se, it's not like raobs injested into the models will suddenly bring the low NW. But when you have something like we have...50 miles or more NW three days out is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What type of ratios would we be looking at in an 18z GFS type event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's all good. If I came across like that than my bad. My bad too for not sending it to you in PM. I feel like all of us have been looking under every rock for a meaningful snow event and keep getting hosed. I just wish the disconnect in understanding would kind of go away. IE, people interpret saying what you think will happen with being negative. We've had a lot of terrible winter months in a row, if an honest person says what they think they're going to be extremely, terribly, undeniably negative when it comes to snow. A week ago people were telling me I was wishcasting the storm that gave Phil and the Cape 4".... so it works all ways. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. As far as this storm goes, based on the latest I'd go 1-3" here and Phil and Ack will be shoveling. Not sure about anyone else. I'm probably most interested in the potential OES involvement, which is the first time this year it may be singaled solidly for quite a few of us. My bad, sorry I misunderstood you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Every man for themselves cape is the enemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I agree with these things. However, I think he was speaking about the overall attitude that some have regarding raobs. If some low is 500 miles se, it's not like raobs injested into the models will suddenly bring the low NW. But when you have something like we have...50 miles or more NW three days out is possible. Oh okay I see. Yeah, at this point, if you are still hanging onto some 00z ECM miracle from a couple runs back, forget it. That would take some quality control error from humans (cough-Jan 2000-cough) to see something adjust several hundred miles. We've seen time and time again the power of s/w to refuse phasing when models seem to do it so well at day 7. The reasons why are stated above in the post you quoted. Well, these same concepts can apply to our situation this week where the s/w remains more in tact, gives up less to the Pac low and comes out stronger from the mountains. Yes the flow isn't optimal east of the Rockies, but it isn't detrimental either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think if you changed your name back to Cweat all would be solved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My bad too for not sending it to you in PM. I feel like all of us have been looking under every rock for a meaningful snow event and keep getting hosed. I just wish the disconnect in understanding would kind of go away. IE, people interpret saying what you think will happen with being negative. We've had a lot of terrible winter months in a row, if an honest person says what they think they're going to be extremely, terribly, undeniably negative when it comes to snow. A week ago people were telling me I was wishcasting the storm that gave Phil and the Cape 4".... so it works all ways. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. As far as this storm goes, based on the latest I'd go 1-3" here and Phil and Ack will be shoveling. Not sure about anyone else. I'm probably most interested in the potential OES involvement, which is the first time this year it may be singaled solidly for quite a few of us. My bad, sorry I misunderstood you. Maybe you don't get the meat of the snow, but this is a decent pattern for you that may continue into Feb. I think you may enjoy Friday night even if just a few inches or something. I don't need to tell you how mean the ocean can be, but maybe even a little OES for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Oh okay I see. Yeah, at this point, if you are still hanging onto some 00z ECM miracle from a couple runs back, forget it. That would take some quality control error from humans (cough-Jan 2000-cough) to see something adjust several hundred miles. We've seen time and time again the power of s/w to refuse phasing when models seem to do it so well at day 7. The reasons why are stated above in the post you quoted. Well, these same concepts can apply to our situation this week where the s/w remains more in tact, gives up less to the Pac low and comes out stronger from the mountains. Yes the flow isn't optimal east of the Rockies, but it isn't detrimental either. It always seems like models struggle with s/w's crossing the Rockies. I mean look how it Breaks off from that trough, crosses the mtns, and then dives se. Pretty much argues for your three points lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ORH jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What type of ratios would we be looking at in an 18z GFS type event? 15-25: 1... last event upton reported 50:1 ratios on long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There is another thread, should we move there? And please don't pin it, I think that has been the bad luck! Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HM I miss you! Umm so I cant help but to notice every one of your posts tries to hint at a more light-moderate event as opposed to light? That correct? I would tend to agree there is still a good chance the low develops slightly earlier and clips SE MA with a few 2 - 4" maybe... Was checking out some analogs, really liked Jan 29-30 1986. Very similar storm, but didnt have quite the moisture source (unfortunately for you guys Boston had 0.0" from that event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 15-25: 1... last event upton reported 50:1 ratios on long island Wonder if that was correct or precip measuring errors... was looking at soundings in NJ / PA for this upcoming storm and snow growth extends from 950 - 600 mb Just missing those omega's as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I love this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As far as ratios go, depends where the lift is. Ratios might not be epic if it's in the -20 to -30C layer which is possible.....but ratios in general I bet would be 15-20:1 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Man this has a sneaky CCB look for the Cape and even se ma. talk dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 15-25: 1... last event upton reported 50:1 ratios on long island As far as ratios go, depends where the lift is. Ratios might not be epic if it's in the -20 to -30C layer which is possible.....but ratios in general I bet would be 15-20:1 at least. Thanks, should be interesting to see how it plays out. I heard about the 50:1 ratios Upton measured... pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks, should be interesting to see how it plays out. I heard about the 50:1 ratios Upton measured... pretty incredible. Ratios are highly variable. There is a reason why you never see a ratio forecast lol. Mostly just a guess. Usually lift on the far NW side of a low is located high up. In this case it would be above the best snow growth which may mean more smaller flakes, but still low water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At least euro ens look ok. What is qpf for ktan, bos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Where is my apology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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