CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 All you've done for a couple of days/storms is tool on the weenies that post here, twitter and elsewhere. But you're still reading it. When you're worrying about the credibility of guys like Noyes....I'd be more worried about the crankiness myself. Z. Yes, it's lack of sleep. New kids will do that to you but we've all been through it. But we've all noticed it I think. I haven't tooled on anyone except those making ridiculous calls since it is irresponsible and gets people unnessarily excited. When you were posting about all the models being a whiff, all we kept saying was to give it another day. Of course nobody should expect a KU, but a 1-3 or 2-4 for BOS was very much possible. Ive seen these patterns before which made me continue to hold course for a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Another? Feel like thats been the general forecast for every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I'm reading things right, 6.3" on 2/1/11 Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I thought I was in a good mood lol. Yea I thought you sounded reasonable and back to your normal sardonic self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I haven't tooled on anyone except those making ridiculous calls since it is irresponsible and gets people unnessarily excited. When you wee posting about all the models being a whiff, all we kept saying was I give it another day. Of course nobody should expect a KU, but a 1-3 or 2-4 for BOS was very much possible. Ive seen these patterns before which made me continue to hold course for a little snow. Scott, I know. But I am not responsible for what people here or elsewhere think. If I never said a word there would have been people jumping left and right. And I stressed here and elsewhere don't give up yet, particularly in E SE areas. People were busy jumping off the ship before I signed on this morning. There seems to be this concept that what's written here has some influence over what happens. You take exception to what I write, but not Kevin talking about 4-8" of snow every day since thanksgiving? It's the same thing, I really don't think either of us influence anyone. JMHO. Maybe your kidding I don't know, but lately you've been hard to gauge and I think others have noted it. I think the most likely scenario still involves a scrape. The 12z Euro Ens is the most interesting piece of guidance in the last 3 events to me. But I can't get too excited about a run of the GFS when it's been prone to overjumping. I hope it continues, I really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I haven't tooled on anyone except those making ridiculous calls since it is irresponsible and gets people unnessarily excited. When you were posting about all the models being a whiff, all we kept saying was to give it another day. Of course nobody should expect a KU, but a 1-3 or 2-4 for BOS was very much possible. Ive seen these patterns before which made me continue to hold course for a little snow. If I lived in Boston I'd be pretty cranky and down on winter... not to mention the fact some of the calls from mets and weenies have been outraegous of late. Boston has had virtually no exciting weather since January 2011. They've been screwed on severe weather.... Irene and Sandy were like a pleasant breeze off the Harbor, the October supersnow was a cold rain and anything that has falled in terms of snow lately has screwed eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Scott just wants Brady gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I love all the tickle ing btw. Love how everyone is tickling in their posts. Looks like goofus is tickle tickle again Tick, Tick Quite a big tickle NW Here tickle tickle.. Here tickle tickle Giggling like Elmo. Nice. Tickle me weenie elmo Oh and -8C is right over BOS on this GFS run, hope that's a good omen Hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I lived in Boston I'd be pretty cranky and down on winter... not to mention the fact some of the calls from mets and weenies have been outraegous of late. Boston has had virtually no exciting weather since January 2011. They've been screwed on severe weather.... Irene and Sandy were like a pleasant breeze off the Harbor, the October supersnow was a cold rain and anything that has falled in terms of snow lately has screwed eastern Mass. LOL I am sure they needed that reminder, geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this data coming onshore thing is such a weenie myth. of course if there was some ridiculously dense sounding grid that covered all of the west coast and up into canada and balloons were launched all the time and airplanes just flew all over that airspace covering every inch...then yes...yes that would make sense. but the idea that a piece of energy comes ashore is suddenly sampled so much better is just wrong. once in a weenie-while it might happen. I'd never say it can't but this is one of these 20 or 30 year old weather model ideas. if it were actually true that the satellite and aircraft data assimilation sucked that bad over the Pacific...none of the models would work. they'd be all f=ed up all the time. This. This doesn't really seem to be much of an issue. There does seem to be a tune upwards to s/w strength exiting the Rockies, not sure why though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This. This doesn't really seem to be much of an issue. There does seem to be a tune upwards to s/w strength exiting the Rockies, not sure why though. You have pointed that out a lot and I have been paying attention and you are spot on with that obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LOL I am sure they needed that reminder, geezus lol well it sort of explains why the Boston posters are sort of down. I would be too... and I'd be way more whiney about it. I'd be on year 2 of a Boxing Day storm kind of meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Noyes solution seems very unlikely at this point. The system would have to jump NW and it has to intensify significantly. Even if these aren't independant events its tough to think that the models are this far off on the intensity and the trajectory. Actually, the models are not that far off at all. It won't take that much to at least get a partial phase leading to a more amped, closer in system. The tailing shortwave either needs to speed up a litttle, or a slightly deeper ridge out west is all that it would take. This is not far off from a 'moderate' snowstorm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You have pointed that out a lot and I have been paying attention and you are spot on with that obs. Yup, Seems to happen almost like clockwork, Must be the timezone difference.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I lived in Boston I'd be pretty cranky and down on winter... not to mention the fact some of the calls from mets and weenies have been outraegous of late. Boston has had virtually no exciting weather since January 2011. They've been screwed on severe weather.... Irene and Sandy were like a pleasant breeze off the Harbor, the October supersnow was a cold rain and anything that has falled in terms of snow lately has screwed eastern Mass. This is all true, we're all kind of cranky. now we're freezing our balls off and cranky. Scott just wants Brady gone... LOL. I think we're all cranky, let's bring the snow. Scott by the way the NOGAPs stopped going SE It was a ORH rule about the NOGAPs. If it went in one direction for more than 3 or 4 runs that was the signal. It went east east east east....now maybe a bit NW. THAT's why I mentioned it. He's talked about it many times (his rule) over the years and it appears to be valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This. This doesn't really seem to be much of an issue. There does seem to be a tune upwards to s/w strength exiting the Rockies, not sure why though. I think the "Pacific" issue is not really an issue. I think it's more like once the shortwaves move ashore we're generally within 72 hours or so and the models in general do a much much better job handling things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol well it sort of explains why the Boston posters are sort of down. I would be too... and I'd be way more whiney about it. I'd be on year 2 of a Boxing Day storm kind of meltdown. Ha, yea that was epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Except the Nam, There is no explanation for that models poor performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think the "Pacific" issue is not really an issue. I think it's more like once the shortwaves move ashore we're generally within 72 hours or so and the models in general do a much much better job handling things. Yep that's my thought. The guys out on the west coast probably note that once a s/w crosses some boundary in the Pacific things ramp up...guys in the central US probably say it's the Pac coast. I almost think it's something in the math behind the models that smooths out observations at init. So instead of them picking right up on a suddenly "stronger" s/w, it takes a few runs. Not sure on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yup, Seems to happen almost like clockwork, Must be the timezone difference.......... except in arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol well it sort of explains why the Boston posters are sort of down. I would be too... and I'd be way more whiney about it. I'd be on year 2 of a Boxing Day storm kind of meltdown. sure you have the gusto to beat me even with my bitching monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Scott, I know. But I am not responsible for what people here or elsewhere think. If I never said a word there would have been people jumping left and right. And I stressed here and elsewhere don't give up yet, particularly in E SE areas. People were busy jumping off the ship before I signed on this morning. There seems to be this concept that what's written here has some influence over what happens. You take exception to what I write, but not Kevin talking about 4-8" of snow every day since thanksgiving? It's the same thing, I really don't think either of us influence anyone. JMHO. Maybe your kidding I don't know, but lately you've been hard to gauge and I think others have noted it. I think the most likely scenario still involves a scrape. The 12z Euro Ens is the most interesting piece of guidance in the last 3 events to me. But I can't get too excited about a run of the GFS when it's been prone to overjumping. I hope it continues, I really do. Where have you been? LOL every day I take exception to what Kevin writes. I'm never mean. Find me a post where I insulted someone. The day I do that is the day I leave the board. Once in a while I may have a strong opinion, but I'll do it in a classy way. The DT way of doing things is not me. It's all good, everyone is getting impatient. If I get a dusting, I'll be sure to give you props. I'm never afraid to bust and I'll give props when needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I lived in Boston I'd be pretty cranky and down on winter... not to mention the fact some of the calls from mets and weenies have been outraegous of late. Boston has had virtually no exciting weather since January 2011. They've been screwed on severe weather.... Irene and Sandy were like a pleasant breeze off the Harbor, the October supersnow was a cold rain and anything that has falled in terms of snow lately has screwed eastern Mass. Considering all the above, I'm amazingly patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Actually, the models are not that far off at all. It won't take that much to at least get a partial phase leading to a more amped, closer in system. The tailing shortwave either needs to speed up a litttle, or a slightly deeper ridge out west is all that it would take. This is not far off from a 'moderate' snowstorm at all. Thanks for the pep-talk. Even if the two systems phase up better/earlier won't the storm still need to shift NW geographically? What I'm asking is does the partial phasing imply a closer system or do we need two independant fortunate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Find me a post where I insulted someone. hi /jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 hi :whistle: /jk Joking with someone like guys do is different lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Joking with someone like guys do is different lol. hence the j/k, you are cool in my book. MWN -29 gusting to 70 mph with freezing fog, awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wonder where the Warministas are hiding I might pull a -20 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Considering all the above, I'm amazingly patient. Agreed...I honestly don't know how you do it lol. I'd be flipping out at people left and right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this data coming onshore thing is such a weenie myth. of course if there was some ridiculously dense sounding grid that covered all of the west coast and up into canada and balloons were launched all the time and airplanes just flew all over that airspace covering every inch...then yes...yes that would make sense. but the idea that a piece of energy comes ashore is suddenly sampled so much better is just wrong. once in a weenie-while it might happen. I'd never say it can't but this is one of these 20 or 30 year old weather model ideas. if it were actually true that the satellite and aircraft data assimilation sucked that bad over the Pacific...none of the models would work. they'd be all f=ed up all the time. No, it's not and you are correct about this. there are papers written about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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