HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 48 yarder with a fair catch signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol say what you want im with kevin on this one oh god. stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z RGEM actually looks pretty amped at 48h too. Hopefully we can start bringing this in a bit more robust at 00z on other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Matt Noyes is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol say what you want im with kevin on this one I think he is referring to you saying that 00z will decide this. What if 00z guidance comes in with a scraper with a big qpf gradient? Is that final with like 5 runs left before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 After 0z comes out I dont care what it shows I honestly think well know.. hit or miss I wrote why earlier but not really sure if it made sense because im not good at explaining stuff lol I think he is referring to you saying that 00z will decide this. What if 00z guidance comes in with a scraper with a big qpf gradient? Is that final with like 5 runs left before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this data coming onshore thing is such a weenie myth. of course if there was some ridiculously dense sounding grid that covered all of the west coast and up into canada and balloons were launched all the time and airplanes just flew all over that airspace covering every inch...then yes...yes that would make sense. but the idea that a piece of energy comes ashore is suddenly sampled so much better is just wrong. once in a weenie-while it might happen. I'd never say it can't but this is one of these 20 or 30 year old weather model ideas. if it were actually true that the satellite and aircraft data assimilation sucked that bad over the Pacific...none of the models would work. they'd be all f=ed up all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Matt Noyes is the man. He may be, But i think when JB threw in the towel it was game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z RGEM actually looks pretty amped at 48h too. Hopefully we can start bringing this in a bit more robust at 00z on other guidance. We need it to go nuts earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this data coming onshore thing is such a weenie myth. of course if there was some ridiculously dense sounding grid that covered all of the west coast and up into canada and balloons were launched all the time and airplanes just flew all over that airspace covering every inch...then yes...yes that would make sense. but the idea that a piece of energy comes ashore is suddenly sampled so much better is just wrong. once in a weenie-while it might happen. I'd never say it can't but this is one of these 20 or 30 year old weather model ideas. if it were actually true that the satellite and aircraft data assimilation sucked that bad over the Pacific...none of the models would work. they'd be all f=ed up all the time. and...why does the data come ashore have to lead to stronger shortwaves? why not weaker ones that send storms harmlessly out to sea? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He may be, But i think when JB threw in the towel it was game on Well I don't know about mixing to the cape and a track near ACK. I think we all thought a bump NW was possible. Except messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He may be, But i think when JB threw in the towel it was game on JB prematurely giving up on a system is the best good luck blessing you could ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well I don't know about mixing to the cape and a track near ACK. I think we all thought a bump NW was possible. Except messenger. If that happened i would get a foot of snow, Its not going to happen, Just continue ticking NW will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well I don't know about mixing to the cape and a track near ACK. I think we all thought a bump NW was possible. Except messenger. Where did I say it "wasn't possible"? So now you're fully on board with the NW solution offered by the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If that happened i would get a foot of snow, Its not going to happen, Just continue ticking NW will be good Yeah That's what I mean. Most reasonable people thought a tickle NW was possible. Twitter has been the ultimate weenie social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Where did I say it wasn't possible? So now you're fully on board with the NW solution offered by the 18z GFS? Your 500 posts about the NOGAPS SE. I always said give it a chance for a few inches here at home. I think 1-2 with the potential for more is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Your 500 posts about the NOGAPS SE. I always said give it a chance for a few inches here at home. I think 1-2 with the potential for more is very possible. 500? You're really off lately, maybe it's the lack of sleep but both your humor and your forecasting is suffering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 500? You're really off lately, maybe it's the lack of sleep but both your humor and your forecasting is suffering. Meanie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Scooter is cranky lately. I can't blame him between the Weenies posting (guilty) and the wintry appeal combined with daddy stress We still love him. Hope he gets a good event soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 500? You're really off lately, maybe it's the lack of sleep but both your humor and your forecasting is suffering. Lol you posted nonstop about it being ots scraper not buying it etc etc etc. ad nauseum for the last day and a half. It still obviously could go OTS but to call out Coastal here is just ridiculous. Scooter has been right on lately. First of all he meh'd the norlun disaster from the moment it showed up on guidance and he's been pretty much saying stay the course on this one even as models went flatter and flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Scooter is cranky lately. I can't blame him between the Weenies posting (guilty) and the wintry appeal combined with daddy stress We still love him. Hope he gets a good event soon I thought I was in a good mood lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Meanie. All you've done for a couple of days/storms is tool on the weenies that post here, twitter and elsewhere. But you're still reading it. When you're worrying about the credibility of guys like Noyes....I'd be more worried about the crankiness myself. Scooter is cranky lately. I can't blame him between the Weenies posting (guilty) and the wintry appeal combined with daddy stress We still love him. Hope he gets a good event soon Yes, it's lack of sleep. New kids will do that to you but we've all been through it. But we've all noticed it I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If the pattern doesn't deliver soon I fear the board may descend into implosive madness. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I thought I was in a good mood lol. Just busting...when was BOSs last 6" event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Matt Noyes is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Noyes solution seems very unlikely at this point. The system would have to jump NW and it has to intensify significantly. Even if these aren't independant events its tough to think that the models are this far off on the intensity and the trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Oh and -8C is right over BOS on this GFS run, hope that's a good omen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lol you posted nonstop about it being ots scraper not buying it etc etc etc. ad nauseum for the last day and a half. It still obviously could go OTS but to call out Coastal here is just ridiculous. Scooter has been right on lately. First of all he meh'd the norlun disaster from the moment it showed up on guidance and he's been pretty much saying stay the course on this one even as models went flatter and flatter. I still think it's more than likely a scraper towards the lines of the 12z Euro Ens. I may be wrong, and this may be the beginning of a trend back. An earlier troll post today had my back up, I'll leave it at that. I hope Scott is right. I hope I'm wrong about the scraper track. If it does come all the way back hats off to Noyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just busting...when was BOSs last 6" event? If I'm reading things right, 6.3" on 2/1/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 if it were actually true that the satellite and aircraft data assimilation sucked that bad over the Pacific...none of the models would work. they'd be all f=ed up all the time. hmmm, Day plus 4 is not much below that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.