Zeus Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z NAM ticking NW, but it's the NAM so I presume we toss? Toss everything. Ignore models. Observe caterpillars and squirrels. Pound scotch. Do science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 another swing and a miss. flat as fook congrats North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For the Nam that is a pretty big shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM is still too far south with the initial LP development, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 0z were either going to see big changes or a whiff and I already stated why further back almost onshore now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For the Nam that is a pretty big shift NW It does look like it came north about 100 mi so far, I think you have it out further than I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For the Nam that is a pretty big shift NW Not really a shift though, it's just the NAM blowing. It'll come NW the next couple of runs to whatever consensus is at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 another swing and a miss. flat as fook congrats North Carolina anyone looking for all of the shift NW to come in one run should rethink...this run actually had a lot of improvements in it...it was more NW and for the NAM that is a lot in one run. It actually tries to dig for a time out there and that is different form this morning and last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The models have patterns. Sometimes there are trends, other times flip-flops and sometimes just flat out bad data. I think here we are seeing the models adjust between two extremes. First extreme being a bomb near the coast, while the other extreme was a flat wave with no precip. The EC and to some extent the GFS have been somewhat consistent over the past 1-2 days with a light event. NAM/SREF flopped and kept all precip SE of the area at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not really a shift though, it's just the NAM blowing. It'll come NW the next couple of runs to whatever consensus is at that point. this ^ it's not a sign of things to come or because the data is onshore. it's just that the nam sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A good 100 miles NW and a good 3-6 hours faster.. slowing down was one of our problems in missing the phase.. we need this to be faster.. all we need is a some precip and we will get a decent event out of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 this ^ it's not a sign of things to come or because the data is onshore. it's just that the nam sucks. LOL, I agree. Look to the GFS/RGEM/Euro for changes to be a trend, not the NAM that's useless. Quincy I think we're all in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not really a shift though, it's just the NAM blowing. It'll come NW the next couple of runs to whatever consensus is at that point. So what's up with the LA Confidential username? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So what's up with the LA Confidential username? I didn't like the other one, had a freebie due to the subscription and had just watched the movie for the first time. Abstract. Plus the movie is probably older than some of the posters here I was going to use Murray Head, it was a toss up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 all we need is some precip and we will get a decent event out of this.. I was under the very same impression. Fascinating how our minds work so similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here is your 12z Euro Ensm mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here is your 12z Euro Ensm mean. 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS072.gif That's a nice hit for Phil and ACK and maybe even me if we can get winds NE. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 everyone will get some light snow, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This will turn into a good stretch for the Cape and islands. Who would have thought they'll have a better snowpack than GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here is your 12z Euro Ensm mean. 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS072.gif Just a slight shift west and many of us are back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Shift, Tick, Trend nobody's denying the Nam blows chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not really a shift though, it's just the NAM blowing. It'll come NW the next couple of runs to whatever consensus is at that point. Whatever you want to call it, Not denying its a POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This will turn into a good stretch for the Cape and islands. Who would have thought they'll have a better snowpack than GC. looks wintry here. i certainly can't complain. i love cold outbreaks in dec and jan for this very reason as they combat the SST issue...plus, they cool things down and make feb / mar more productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here is your 12z Euro Ensm mean. 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS072.gif NW 75 miles please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Another 2" sublimation bomb what a great thrill Another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 looks wintry here. i certainly can't complain. i love cold outbreaks in dec and jan for this very reason as they combat the SST issue...plus, they cool things down and make feb / mar more productive. of course you know this scooter being a native south coastal guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Even the JMA is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 of course you know this scooter being a native south coastal guyWell in Brockton and then definitely in Marshfield I know what it's like. Even this 1" they have in Hanover...it just feels so much more wintry. You guys deserve it out there. People don't remember how patient you were while 30 miles NW got blasted. Same with messenger, in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 of course you know this scooter being a native south coastal guyYep probably why I got so excited when this outbreak seemed likely. 44 winters of living on the coast with all the heartbreaks, you need all the cold you can muster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Even the JMA is gone That was already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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