Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Eh haha...yeah. I'd say what it all really boils down to [for those emotive about all this...] is that when you are in "one of those patterns", it seems as though fart in china makes it snow here. There have been a few of them in lore. Couple years ago we had a 45 day, 60" blitz, then going back, a sprinkling of years over the past couple of decades had intervals that snowed at least excuse imaginable. This year, at least so far, the opposite is true. But it's always been that way. It is almost like fractals, where you can be in a "chancy" period where randomality flips tails more than heads, and you end up in funner times. This year, we're flipping more heads. About 10 days ago, I remember when Will said something to the affect of, with all that cold air and that trough it is hard to imagine it bringing the goods eventually.. . Well, hehe, D7 and counting the b-bangs. This 12z Euro run is microcosm of that; Whiff - whiff - Lake cutter - dry and cold. Just perfectly and quintessentially wrong. straight question, are people wishcasting on this event right now in your eyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That makes sense IMHO. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 straight question, are people wishcasting on this event right now in your eyes? day 7 of what???? would be my question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ACKwaves is on a tear. Not unreasonable, but if I had to do a map it'd be 1-2 lower NW of the canal (including IMBY) Nantucket = place to be this January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I thought the GFS had decent WAA at 850. It won't take much to wring out snow in this pattern. yeah the 12z run had a pretty strong LLJ off the mid-atlantic...it doesn't quite get this far north but like you said...this kind of airmass...shouldn't take much. just some weak upglide would be enough. crosssection from about ACY to BOS 6z sat. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ok...apparently can't post images. sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 How's powder freak doing wrt snow. I think theyv'e been pretty dry up there. Perhaps below last years pace Been dry... but we are ahead of last year's pace both in town and at the mountain. Last winter was really low with 85" in town and 210" at 3,000ft. With snowfall in the low 50s so far in town, February/March/April would have to absolutely blow to not achieve more than 30-35" from here on out. Right now we are on pace for a below normal snowfall winter, but nothing unheard of. Like a 250-270" winter at the summit and 100" in town. We'd need to only get less than 80" at the summit from here to the end to be below last winter. Doubt that happens as we can jam out over 80 inches in 2-3 weeks in the right pattern (like earlier this winter with 85" in 20 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ok...apparently can't post images. sweet. yea I posted that too. This up grade is on par with the euros, if it aint broke do not fix it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 straight question, are people wishcasting on this event right now in your eyes? No, not actually. As of 12z, the S/W dynamics responsible for ...whatever ultimately transpires, were just barely tickling the west coast of N/A - much of it is still over the open eastern Pacific/GOA area. Normally, 72 hours out for that. But here, the flow is so fast that it's almost halved that amount of time, such that we may only get 36-48 hours lead before a rapid adjustment back more intense and NW happens. That's not a wish. It is a hurry up and wait. It doesn't happen every time. Much of the initialization grid for those open oceanic areas are assimilated and satellite sounding combined. It is what it is, and certainly better than having no input at all! But, once in a while, an important system shows up in the late middle range period, disappears, only to come charging back in nearer terms ... usually when that happens the S/W comes into B.C. or the Oregon coast when the storm comes back. Now could be one of those times... we'll see. This initialization of 00z and particularly 12z tomorrow might be a time to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw, And probably not much, 15z srefs did shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For what its worth.. if you take the GFS and look at it.. it has been the most consistent model recently, mostly because it has not had wild swings back and forth, just slow trends.. Lets take the 12z gfs qpf. which was .20" OXC and .30" qpf for GON. This track storm will lock in cold.. and temps from surface to 700mb will be -20 to -10 C giving a 20:1 fluff factor for most.. That gives us 2-3" under a 10:1 ratio. But under 20:1 ratios this could be a 4-6" snowfall for Southern New England. Question remains is this storm still trending south and the GFS just had a hiccup at 12z, or is the gfs onto something and it might even trend a little more NW.. If 18z holds or trends at all NW I will be excited for a light to possibly moderate snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Tip agreed on your post can't quote on phone. This site is the 2013 srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Did you guys notice this NAM run? The next 48 hours witnesses a top of the physics S/W power ripping off the MA... 120kt at 500mb, about at a theoretical limit perhaps. This feature's axis rotates around neutral as it leaves the MA, and a Gulf Stream detonation happens - this low rotates up E of NS and bombs all the way down to a Category 3, mid 930's mb low!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 yea I posted that too. This up grade is on par with the euros, if it aint broke do not fix it Cool... when we get hacked into oblivion because we're using outdated and vulnerable software, I'll bump this post. The upgrades are not really optional and the board is highly customized, so every update is going to have issues that take time to get resolved. Some of the issues, like the editor, are entirely beyond our control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cool... when we get hacked into oblivion because we're using outdated and vulnerable software, I'll bump this post. The upgrades are not really optional and the board is highly customized, so every update is going to have issues that take time to get resolved. Some of the issues, like the editor, are entirely beyond our control. Cool, so it was a security upgrade, with the transparency and all did not know, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Security is vital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bufkit for area shows 3-4 inches on GFS ratios about 17-1 30126/0000Z 60 25006KT 22.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 19:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130126/0300Z 63 03004KT 22.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0130126/0600Z 66 05011KT 22.7F SNOW 21:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0130126/0900Z 69 02016KT 19.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0130126/1200Z 72 01016KT 17.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 18:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130126/1500Z 75 36015KT 18.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 18:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0130126/1800Z 78 34013KT 20.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0130126/2100Z 81 33017KT 19.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 17:1| 4.1|| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Security is vital. Damn Chinese hackers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 15z SREF was more NW and several members are more amped up, but still too far SE for anything significant. Verbatim, even Cape Cod/Islands only get 0.1 to 0.2" with the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Damn Chinese hackers Maybe they can hack the SREFs and then fix them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z NAM ticking NW, but it's the NAM so I presume we toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Maybe they can hack the SREFs and then fix them. apparently they got to the Euro, what did the JMA show today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z NAM ticking NW, but it's the NAM so I presume we toss? Toss nothing that moves NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z was really bad I think this run is just bad 18z NAM ticking NW, but it's the NAM so I presume we toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 apparently they got to the Euro, what did the JMA show today? First storm ever in the history of the JMA to mostly be a miss on the east coast. bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 First storm ever in the history of the JMA to mostly be a miss on the east coast. bad sign. Eh, It always shows a hit and we have had plenty of misses when it does............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 apparently they got to the Euro, what did the JMA show today? http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This Nam run will be better then 12z not that it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This Nam run will be better then 12z not that it matters Yeah, it's just coming into the fold now, nothing ground breaking to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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