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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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It's okay for you to talk about how favorable the pattern is with analogs and references to historic winters, but not okay for someone else to offer an opinion?   The opinions on the historic aspects of this pattern have resulted in less snow in Boston than in the warmest winter we can remember last year.

 

I've been as specific as possible this past month, if I am wrong I'm wrong like on the extent of the first part of the cold snap, it happens.

 

I have hope for this event still, after that it looks meh for several days, then we wait for a potential coastal as the front slips through.

 

Most people here Steve care about snow, I have a hard time understanding why so many don't understand that.  It's all about the snow, not how cold it is.  If we set every cold record known to man in the next month and get little snow most people will rate the winter terrible...that's a fact.

I was referring to this, you are making it up as you go. Please state the science behind this, or is it a persistence forecast.

Lots out there wandering around crying to their mommas with the Euro and SREFs being so unreliable they're lost. 

 

 

 

Next weeks does seem to be a cutter and has been modeled as such by the GFS all along.  the good news is the pattern reloads after that and looks very cold, and very dry

A replay of the PV sitting to our NW is quite possible.  Fun for cold weather sports though.

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This isn't a weenie statement...just something I keep seeing on the models. Soundings do have dry air below 850, but still....

yeah that's what i was saying this morning. the soundings are relatively moist in the mid-levels and there's "a lot" of lift around the Northeast. i could see where there's a fairly widespread area of light snows despite no precip showing up. especially given guidance does have some precip to our west. additionally there's a period with some weak WAA as the 9h-7h flow goes SSW so that could help out a bit. 

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The cold can be a real pain to scour out once it has established itself....we're talking arcitc air and not just weak polar air. We may have to watch for ice in the future on that.

oh like another year we keep getting shat on for mentioning. a 2-4 3-6 Friday night sounds good to me then some ice.

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yeah that's what i was saying this morning. the soundings are relatively moist in the mid-levels and there's "a lot" of lift around the Northeast. i could see where there's a fairly widespread area of light snows despite no precip showing up. especially given guidance does have some precip to our west. additionally there's a period with some weak WAA as the 9h-7h flow goes SSW so that could help out a bit. 

 

I thought the GFS had decent WAA at 850. It won't take much to wring out snow in this pattern.

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I know how hard this field is so I'm careful about criticizing..but at the same time...don't diminish my credibility and lump me into these "mets" category because they make wild forecasts. That's why I get bothered by it. Like Will said, it ruins the credibilty. 

 

 

I did not lump you in that and never would, And don't take it wrong, I don't criticize any of you guys either or would call any met out on this board, I am well aware of how tough your job is and quite frankly, I am glad i don't have to make a call on these events as Monday was a great example of that, I know there were comments made when that map came out and from my standpoint i thought it was poor judgement this far out unless like was mentioned there was a holiday travel period and they may have wanted to make the public aware of what could possibly happen, And i was not the only one that made a comment on it, It was taken down rather quickly there after, Put up by accident, Very possible

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We have reached half of our journey to the new world. Confidence is low, morale has vanquished, and our supplies are running low. The conditions aboard the s.s. weenie are becoming reasonably unbearable

 

That was pretty good.  Imagine if we make it to about 2/7 without anything really significant?  Be like sailing on the Potemkin.

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We have reached half of our journey to the new world. Confidence is low, morale has vanquished, and our supplies are running low. The conditions aboard the s.s. weenie are becoming reasonably unbearable

LOL well at least it's reasonable.

This storm feels to be fading fast in terms of being even a moderate event?

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Eh haha...yeah.

 

I'd say what it all really boils down to [for those emotive about all this...] is that when you are in "one of those patterns", it seems as though fart in china makes it snow here.  There have been a few of them in lore.  Couple years ago we had a 45 day, 60" blitz, then going back, a sprinkling of years over the past couple of decades had intervals that snowed at least excuse imaginable.  This year, at least so far, the opposite is true.

 

But it's always been that way.  It is almost like fractals, where you can be in a "chancy" period where randomality flips tails more than heads, and you end up in funner times.  This year, we're flipping more heads.  About 10 days ago, I remember when Will said something to the affect of, with all that cold air and that trough it is hard to imagine it bringing the goods eventually.. . Well, hehe, D7 and counting the b-bangs.  This 12z Euro run is microcosm of that;  Whiff - whiff - Lake cutter - dry and cold.   Just perfectly and quintessentially wrong.    

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I did not lump you in that and never would, And don't take it wrong, I don't criticize any of you guys either or would call any met out on this board, I am well aware of how tough your job is and quite frankly, I am glad i don't have to make a call on these events as Monday was a great example of that, I know there were comments made when that map came out and from my standpoint i thought it was poor judgement this far out unless like was mentioned there was a holiday travel period and they may have wanted to make the public aware of what could possibly happen, And i was not the only one that made a comment on it, It was taken down rather quickly there after, Put up by accident, Very possible

 

Oh I;m sorry...that wasn't directed at you one bit. That was a general statement not to lump all mets in together because of some mavericks out there. I'm sorry..lol, I can see how you could take it the wrong way.

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