CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 pretty meh warm-up next week. that's relatively short-lived...and that's good to see. Might even be SWFE..or lets just go with recent trends...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is Kevin blocked from posting? I think he drove into the CT River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You know what I think it is? I think pros have become so meh....so non-specific and obtuse...I think some are trying to change that and actually offer forecasts beyond 24-36 hours instead of possibilities. Problem is they picked a terrible time to do it with the more reliable models stinking it up. I miss Mark Rosenthal and Bob Copeland too. Watching the noon newscasts it's like watching people trying not to be wrong vs forecasting. Maybe, if, we'll keep an eye on it, possibly, etc etc. Very little talk of what actually is happening, lots of fluff, and CYA. I am happy Noyes and Kelly are going for it long as they don't become Big Joe. I'd rather have that than the pros telling me the 15 things that might happen but not the 1 they think is most likely until the cirrus is moving in. i disagree with most of this. but to each his own. then again, i literally don't watch any TV outside of sports (and with 2 kids that rarely works out well) so perhaps that's the going trend on TV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You know what I think it is? I think pros have become so meh....so non-specific and obtuse...I think some are trying to change that and actually offer forecasts beyond 24-36 hours instead of possibilities. Problem is they picked a terrible time to do it with the more reliable models stinking it up. I miss Mark Rosenthal and Bob Copeland too. Watching the noon newscasts it's like watching people trying not to be wrong vs forecasting. Maybe, if, we'll keep an eye on it, possibly, etc etc. Very little talk of what actually is happening, lots of fluff, and CYA. I am happy Noyes and Kelly are going for it long as they don't become Big Joe. I'd rather have that than the pros telling me the 15 things that might happen but not the 1 they think is most likely until the cirrus is moving in. To be clear this isn't aimed at anyone. I just think looking around the landscape there's very few that are actively sticking their necks out now for fear of busting. I think overall the forecasting in Boston has really gone down hill with Drag leaving and guys like Barry, Bob C, Mark etc going off into the sunset. Its silly to "stick your neck out" in a forecast that has low certainty and a lead time of several days. You pick your spots to stick your neck out...I'm not sure why the huge fetish in having "balls" or "guts" for making a forecast at 72 hours that has a huge chance in busting. What it does it reduce that person's credibility. Just my 0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think he drove into the CT River. He's serious, he said that he gets one of those warnings that says cannot post. Can anyone look into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He's serious, he said that he gets one of those warnings that says cannot post. Can anyone look into it? Says that he gets a "does not have permission to post" warning, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Having misspoke, the temperature near the ground (alone) has virtually nothing to do with snowfall ratios. Snow growth is another consideration, but given that we're looking at a pretty cold vertical profile to and above 700mb, I think it's safe to say snowfall ratios are pretty good. For IJD, the percent probability for a 15:1 or greater ratio is 97% from NAM and 89% from GFS.http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_timeetc.pl?site=IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Might even be SWFE..or lets just go with recent trends...lol. Isn't a neutral or slight -PNA better for SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i disagree with most of this. but to each his own. then again, i literally don't watch any TV outside of sports (and with 2 kids that rarely works out well) so perhaps that's the going trend on TV... The comments about the wild forecasts were mainly about TV mets in Boston, so it was mainly about TV mets yes. When Harv and Barry retire there's nobody on Boston tv I'd turn to for weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Its silly to "stick your neck out" in a forecast that has low certainty and a lead time of several days. You pick your spots to stick your neck out...I'm not sure why the huge fetish in having "balls" or "guts" for making a forecast at 72 hours that has a huge chance in busting. What it does it reduce that person's credibility. Just my 0.02. Like the box map from i think it was yesterday for the friday storm, That was pretty ballsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here's a forecast from the SPC SREF. Lower ratios near the south coasts, but much higher as you go inland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Isn't a neutral or slight -PNA better for SWFE? Well the stronger a trough out west, the better chance for a low to head west so be careful what you wish for. It also depends on the NAO...is there blocking? Also, is there ridging in AK? Is it poleward enough? Next week as a pretty good trough, but some confluence to our northeast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He's serious, he said that he gets one of those warnings that says cannot post. Can anyone look into it? Eek is on it. We don't know what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the euro is only like a 36-hr mild up. not bad at all...and "trending" more meh with time. ec ensembles looked fairly similar with just a 1 or 2 day break in the cold. good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Its silly to "stick your neck out" in a forecast that has low certainty and a lead time of several days. You pick your spots to stick your neck out...I'm not sure why the huge fetish in having "balls" or "guts" for making a forecast at 72 hours that has a huge chance in busting. What it does it reduce that person's credibility. Just my 0.02. Will it's not about putting out specific totals etc. It's about not even really outlining what may happen. I gather you don't watch much TV in the Boston market, it's really taken a depressing turn. we don't really ever get accumulation maps now, we get the automated products that seem to be never close to right that the mets mostly totally discount WHILE they are showing them. I know that's not the market we're in now, ratings dictate a dumbing down of the forecast product and pretty graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Like the box map from i think it was yesterday for the friday storm, That was pretty ballsy I know how hard this field is so I'm careful about criticizing..but at the same time...don't diminish my credibility and lump me into these "mets" category because they make wild forecasts. That's why I get bothered by it. Like Will said, it ruins the credibilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Eek is on it. We don't know what's up. He's not logged in. That's what happens on your phone when it's dropped the connection information. LOL. Conspiracy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Remember Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Remember Boxing Day Remember the Alamo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 can envision that mid-week cutter going out south of us...or triple pointing and keeping the interior locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Remember Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Remember Boxing Day remember that time you sent me a PM? remember my answer? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 can envision that mid-week cutter going out south of us...or triple pointing and keeping the interior locked in. Yeah I could see that. Lets hope it all goes under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I got the same message on my phone, went to full version and it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I wonder if the dry air will eat up a lot of this snow. The mid level RH fields are saturated with weak lift too. I swear 7-8/10 times this produces some snow when QPF is not really showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Testes 123 Testes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I got the same message on my phone, went to full version and it works. It's the phone version...it's happened to me from time to time and logging out and back in worked, this time it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I wonder if the dry air will eat up a lot of this snow. The mid level RH fields are saturated with weak lift too. I swear 7-8/10 times this produces some snow when QPF is not really showing it. This isn't a weenie statement...just something I keep seeing on the models. Soundings do have dry air below 850, but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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