Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Probably several inches of fluff out here. Yeah....you're still in the game, the dry air flake eating monster is the only reason I'm not excited for here. Lots of this right now, lots of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 that'll do it. GFS fail ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still room for wiggle room 2-4 this way. 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Definitely this winter has been rough for it showing storms in that time range. Remember the Dec 27 cutter into Michagan too? And the ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GEFS/NCEP will overshoot more than likely. We'll have a run, or maybe the 12z was the run that's well too far NW. Euro shifted SE as did all other guidance not the GFS. LOL on this pattern. "Mild" and wetter, cold and suppressed, AIT. Next week will be a cutter, That could be modeled basically most of the time 384 hrs out and won't change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lots out there wandering around crying to their mommas with the Euro and SREFs being so unreliable they're lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Next week will be a cutter, That could be modeled basically most of the time 384 hrs out and won't changeand least it's more exciting that tracking dryness but you are right, it will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Next week will be a cutter, That could be modeled basically most of the time 384 hrs out and won't change This one was originally modeled to be warm too. Now it's suppressed heartbreaker #3 Next weeks does seem to be a cutter and has been modeled as such by the GFS all along. the good news is the pattern reloads after that and looks very cold, and very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I don't think a few inches is impossible for BOS. Sure it's not epic, but JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still room for wiggle room 2-4 this way. 3 days out. Yeah I'm not giving up on a system that gives us all accumulating snow, but we really would have liked to see a better Euro run there if we were still trying to get a major storm. Thats looking fairly unlikely at this point. Its too bad too because the synoptic longwave pattern definitely has a decent look to it, but our shortwave is pretty mediocre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This one was originally modeled to be warm too. Now it's suppressed heartbreaker #3 Next weeks does seem to be a cutter and has been modeled as such by the GFS all along. the good news is the pattern reloads after that and looks very cold, and very dry. That's great news............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 most exciting part of the GFS/EURo is the strong hints of a OES potential enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 l would not write this off yet.. The vort that splits and sends part of it along the california coast is screwing up things big time if it does not play out like that watch out.. The earlier runs that were giving us a good storm did not really have that the GFS backed off a little with it and made the northern one stronger so we had a track a little closer to the coast.. and by the way I suck at explaining what I see but I know what I mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This one was originally modeled to be warm too. Now it's suppressed heartbreaker #3 Next weeks does seem to be a cutter and has been modeled as such by the GFS all along. the good news is the pattern reloads after that and looks very cold, and very dry. AWESOME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah I'm not giving up on a system that gives us all accumulating snow, but we really would have liked to see a better Euro run there if we were still trying to get a major storm. Thats looking fairly unlikely at this point. Its too bad too because the synoptic longwave pattern definitely has a decent look to it, but our shortwave is pretty mediocre. Yeah my bar is set low. If I don't see a flake..gladly admit being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 We toss. 00z has already been pre-tossed unless its epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And I'll say it again. This winter has brought out awful calls from some well known mets. I don't understand some of the logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 l would not write this off yet.. The vort that splits and sends part of it along the california coast is screwing up things big time if it does not play out like that watch out.. The earlier runs that were giving us a good storm did not really have that the GFS backed off a little with it and made the northern one stronger so we had a track a little closer to the coast.. and by the way I suck at explaining what I see but I know what I mean lol You can't write it off yet but expectations have to be realistic. All three of these recent systems had potential to be more whether people want to admit that or not. But the pieces are having a hard time coming together. One will eventually surprise us, maybe this year, maybe in 5 years, but it'll happen again. AWESOME A replay of the PV sitting to our NW is quite possible. Fun for cold weather sports though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 AWESOME He doesn't know that..lol. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And I'll say it again. This winter has brought out awful calls from some well known mets. I don't understand some of the logic. i sometimes wonder if it's either them getting bored or trying to hit a grand slam when there's no one on base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i sometimes wonder if it's either them getting bored or trying to hit a grand slam when there's no one on base It's like the producers are the RedSox organization and pressure them to make calls and forecasts sexy..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Rollo is that guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He doesn't know that..lol. Relax. Of course, but I think the pattern will favor mainly milder/wet storms with cold dominating in between. Best chance I see is post frontal around the 31st into the 2nd for a snowstorm. Again, offering an opinion based on the possibilities, not just outlining every possibility from asteroid impact to cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Of course, but I think the pattern will favor mainly milder/wet storms with cold dominating in between. Best chance I see is post frontal around the 31st into the 2nd for a snowstorm. Again, offering an opinion based on the possibilities, not just outlining every possibility from asteroid impact to cold snap. Feb is a month that can deliver as the south warms just a bit and jetstreams respond. Again, I don't know about snow, but that pattern is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Rollo is that guy It's okay for you to talk about how favorable the pattern is with analogs and references to historic winters, but not okay for someone else to offer an opinion? The opinions on the historic aspects of this pattern have resulted in less snow in Boston than in the warmest winter we can remember last year. I've been as specific as possible this past month, if I am wrong I'm wrong like on the extent of the first part of the cold snap, it happens. I have hope for this event still, after that it looks meh for several days, then we wait for a potential coastal as the front slips through. Most people here Steve care about snow, I have a hard time understanding why so many don't understand that. It's all about the snow, not how cold it is. If we set every cold record known to man in the next month and get little snow most people will rate the winter terrible...that's a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is Kevin blocked from posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i sometimes wonder if it's either them getting bored or trying to hit a grand slam when there's no one on base You know what I think it is? I think pros have become so meh....so non-specific and obtuse...I think some are trying to change that and actually offer forecasts beyond 24-36 hours instead of possibilities. Problem is they picked a terrible time to do it with the more reliable models stinking it up. I miss Mark Rosenthal and Bob Copeland too. Watching the noon newscasts it's like watching people trying not to be wrong vs forecasting. Maybe, if, we'll keep an eye on it, possibly, etc etc. Very little talk of what actually is happening, lots of fluff, and CYA. I am happy Noyes and Kelly are going for it long as they don't become Big Joe. I'd rather have that than the pros telling me the 15 things that might happen but not the 1 they think is most likely until the cirrus is moving in. To be clear this isn't aimed at anyone. I just think looking around the landscape there's very few that are actively sticking their necks out now for fear of busting. I think overall the forecasting in Boston has really gone down hill with Drag leaving and guys like Barry, Bob C, Mark etc going off into the sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 pretty meh warm-up next week. that's relatively short-lived...and that's good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.