powderfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Meh on op long range features, use Ens That's a very valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I agree with Forky in that I'd be more worried about suppressed solutions rather than Apps runners with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I agree with Forky in that I'd be more worried about suppressed solutions rather than Apps runners with this system. GEFS had many suppressed members, actually most of the suppressed were OTS for everyone on the East coast. the Euro Ens were not bad. Reality is once again anything past day 3 is out of range for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I agree with Forky in that I'd be more worried about suppressed solutions rather than Apps runners with this system. With the amount of cold that over us, That is more the fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 With the amount of cold that over us, That is more the fear often wondered what was the coldest KU on record. I know 1888 NYC was like 6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 With the amount of cold that over us, That is more the fear Looks like there's some room for amplification to me. It's not like we have a meat grinding PV sitting up in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like there's some room for amplification to me. It's not like we have a meat grinding PV sitting up in Quebec. Yeah I don't think suppression is a huge deal. There is not block to stop this really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's good we don't want pv right now in that area, We don't need suppression depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wagons south on gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS very 12z Euro-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Eh, I still don't mind seeing that solution 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah...well south of 18z...whiff-o-matic verbatim. Plenty of time to adjust back north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 what happened to the trough? It's lost all its sharpness from earlier runs. Nothing left to guide the low north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Eh, I still don't mind seeing that solution 6 days out. I've mostly been just looking to see if the storm is still there at this point. There's really nothing else we can do 6 days out....except we can say the antecedent airmass will be very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've mostly been just looking to see if the storm is still there at this point. There's really nothing else we can do 6 days out....except we can say the antecedent airmass will be very cold. Yeah really nothing much more you can do. It's not worth worrying about suppresion, SWFE, or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've mostly been just looking to see if the storm is still there at this point. There's really nothing else we can do 6 days out....except we can say the antecedent airmass will be very cold. Yeah really nothing much more you can do. It's not worth worrying about suppresion, SWFE, or anything like that. what else could you do anyway? Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 what else could you do anyway? Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Try and analyze the pattern and predict what the storm might do 6 days out....a relatively fruitless task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 what else could you do anyway?Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Nothing except to pull a few weenies back from the ledge. Who wants a bullseye 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 what else could you do anyway?Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Nothing except to pull a few weenies back from the ledge. Who wants a bullseye 6 days out. I can't say I was not disappointed with today's run. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 what else could you do anyway? Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Try and analyze the pattern and predict what the storm might do 6 days out....a relatively fruitless task. yeah, I figure it will change a few times still. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Well if you want it more north, you can look at the GGEM and root for it...it goes over Logan11's fanny and changes much NE to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Well if you want it more north, you can look at the GGEM and root for it...it goes over Logan11's fanny and changes much NE to rain. that would mean the end of a few weenies.. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ensembles look like a SWFE deal before redeveloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ensembles look like a SWFE deal before redeveloping. The 00Z GFS ensemble mean looks very suppressed the 12Z GGEM ensemble mean did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The 00Z GFS ensemble mean looks very suppressed the 12Z GGEM ensemble mean did as well. 00z had a low going toward the great lakes and then off the SNE coast. There is probably a ton of spread but didn't look suppressed to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 DT told everyone on FB that this is looking more likely to be a mid Atlantic snowstorm, so expect the N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euro looks good so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Was it Ekster who likened it to 12/13/07? Looks kind of like it on the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wow, looks like a nice hit by hour 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Classic post from JI lol: Euro went from 22 snow to 42 rain in on run and DT: *** MODEL CONFUSION !!**8The NEW 0Z EURO model is now coming out here at 120AM.. and it has the Low further North tracking thru se OH -- NOT KY-- then into western PA AND over or north of PHL. This track... would mean NO event at all for any portion of VA or MD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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