Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jerry's right. A few days ago the models were showing it as a morning/afternoon deal on Friday. I think we did start to see a slowing trend after that. Jerry's right. WCVB just had their digimap up..must be the RPM, had 2-4" everywhere from Boston to Providence south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let's not forget we're expecting near-surface temperatures in the teens to mid-20's, so we could be talking about snowfall ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. 0.1 inches of liquid might yield 2 inches of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Atrocious. 1"+ probabilities only reach about 10% on the outer Cape and Islands. I don't think any of the members show accumulating snows inland. Yeah for HYA they have 2 with an advisory event, about a half dozen C-1", and the rest nothing. Inland is pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You look for trends not qpf. The NW shift many of us expected just began at 12z. Sit back and enjoy the next 24 hours of NW moves What besides the GFS has moved NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You look for trends not qpf. The NW shift many of us expected just began at 12z. Sit back and enjoy the next 24 hours of NW moves I'll have to see if I can put an animated GIF together of the GFS trend. It's pretty interesting. Does anyone know if animated GIFS are working again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'll have to see if I can put an animated GIF together of the GFS trend. It's pretty interesting. Does anyone know if animated GIFS are working again? I don't know if they're working yet. The difference between the 6z and 12z GEFS at 84 hours 24 hour QPF was minimal in terms of penetration inland. The .1" line didn't move much at all, the .25 bumped NW as did the .5" but it seems to be honing in on a solution where I'm close to or in the screw zone based on .1" being eaten up and wasted. Yes I know the models account for dry air, but they still seem to all over shoot in these situations on the NW fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What besides the GFS has moved NW?Lets see, Gefs, Ukie, Rgem for starters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let's not forget we're expecting near-surface temperatures in the teens to mid-20's, so we could be talking about snowfall ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. 0.1 inches of liquid might yield 2 inches of fluff.Not sure what sfc temps have to do with ratios in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What besides the GFS has moved NW? SREFS are horrible this year, beyond useless until 3 hours prior. Noon tomorrow for final look at models until then, fast moving overrunning 94 ish storm, hopefully it trends back and slows so the second Northern stream can put some breaks on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lets see, Gefs, Ukie, Rgem for starters UKMET, NOGAPS and GGEM went the other way. We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lets see, Gefs, Ukie, Rgem for starters Ukie went SE...it was really amped up at 00z still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NOGAPS and GGEM went the other way. We toss?I don't pay ATTn to those unless the Nogaps is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ukie went SE...it was really amped up at 00z still.i hadn't seen 00z so my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS Ensm members. Nothing shows a hit. Glancing blows at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS trend for Blizz: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not sure what sfc temps have to do with ratios in this situation. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not sure what sfc temps have to do with ratios in this situation. Same as that last aborted event... everyone talking about cold sfc temps leading to good ratios. One of my pet peeves, lol. Its like when SFC temps are 10-15F in a SWFE but all your getting is 8:1 dense needles because its only -3C at H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not really - the complaint its self it utterly futile, because it does nothing to change the status. :shutup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Obviously if these models are all consensus ots we better damn hope its handling a s/w somewhere incorrectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Same as that last aborted event... everyone talking about cold sfc temps leading to good ratios. One of my pet peeves, lol. Its like when SFC temps are 10-15F in a SWFE but all your getting is 8:1 dense needles because its only -3C at H7. Last event did have good ratios though....inverted trough events with very cold temps usually have good ratios because the lift is fairly low and right in the snow growth region. I think I had like an inch out of 0.05 of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS Ensm members. Nothing shows a hit. Glancing blows at best. f72.gif Subtle movement in some models NW, but the alley way is pretty well set for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Subtle movement in some models NW, but the alley way is pretty well set for this one? Yeah, I think the uprights are withing site now. Minor event for SE MA/ CC and Islands. Bout does it in my book. I don't see the Euro budging too much from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let all pack in the weenie bus and jay can drive it off the tobin. We can correlate times for sililiar rides in nyc, phil, dc. Mrg will protest saying he's got 75 inches ytd but he still gettin on bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let all pack in the weenie bus and jay can drive it off the tobin. We can correlate times for sililiar rides in nyc, phil, dc. Mrg will protest saying he's got 75 inches ytd but he still gettin on bus We could always just pack in and drive off the chespeake bay bridge. I have to drive that way anyways sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Last event did have good ratios though....inverted trough events with very cold temps usually have good ratios because the lift is fairly low and right in the snow growth region. I think I had like an inch out of 0.05 of qpf.I think it's more of a case of relating sfc temps to snow growth instead of looking at omega and the dgz aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euros a running.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think it's more of a case of relating sfc temps to snow growth instead of looking at omega and the dgz aloft. Dgz = what again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cold air with dp's as such, keep in mind anyone on the frimge will have major virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah, I think the uprights are withing site now. Minor event for SE MA/ CC and Islands. Bout does it in my book. I don't see the Euro budging too much from here on out.I love finite statements like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS ens members moved NW a lot for a 12 hour period, more importantly they show better earlier development. If they did the same in 12 hrs, Bobby will be able to post SREFS for his backyard. Waiting and watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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