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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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unless the southern stream comes to life, hard to see how Feb is any different that this month

 

 

Why?

 

+PNA northern stream dominant is how we often get our best Miller Bs. Look at Jan '05. Just because this current threat may lack the vort power to give us a big storm, doesn't mean that we start making generalizations on this pattern. There's a reason similar patterns to this have produced a lot of snow in the past and it wasn't because we had a raging southern stream STJ.

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I am convinced we are populated with a bunch of spoiled weenies. My recollection is that Jan was always a cold dry month on average, this year much drier, so far. Feb is the climo snowiest. Time is on our side.

 

I think everyone is eager for cold and snow. Unfortunately climo's a b*tch and will always revert to the mean. '93-'94 through '10-'11 is the mean reversion for the '80s and early '90s. Eventually we'll have to accept entering the downward phase of the cycle (not saying that is starting now, but at some point). If one's life truly depends on having extended cold and lots of snow even in a down year, SNE is probably not a good place to live.

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Why?

 

+PNA northern stream dominant is how we often get our best Miller Bs. Look at Jan '05. Just because this current threat may lack the vort power to give us a big storm, doesn't mean that we start making generalizations on this pattern. There's a reason similar patterns to this have produced a lot of snow in the past and it wasn't because we had a raging southern stream STJ.

Fair enough and agree-but if we had some southern energy running into this cold air, the pattern would be alot more active IMO.
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There are some tangible reasons that this hasn't worked out so well.  The flow is pretty damn fast.  We did have a hell of a pattern change.  BUF was only a slightly westward PV away from having an epic month.

 

 

PV also ended up a bit east of where I wanted it...my pseudo Jan 2004 concern from before the pattern change.

 

Still, a lot of it is just luck in getting a nice potent s/w diving in at the right time...and we just haven't had them for the most part. They have been more ill-timed than anything.

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I am getting tired of the constant "pattern looks great for the next two weeks" garbage.  We have been going with that mantra since the beginning of June...

 

Fast-forward to Spring pls...

 

 

Funny how people were complaining non-stop about the torch and all the posts of "oh the cold is always 10 days away and will never get here"....now that the cold is here, its the snow complaints.

 

Just like I predicted....its all about the snow, its not about the cold.

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