Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the euro and ukmet are still awfully close to making this a much bigger deal for at least the E half of SNE. You and ack will be sharing snow photos come Saturday. Lets hope the rest of us can get into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You and ack will be sharing snow photos come Saturday. Lets hope the rest of us can get into it. You might want to change your location to - North of Where It Snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You and ack will be sharing snow photos come Saturday. Lets hope the rest of us can get into it. well i know you didn't get much the other night, but it's not like you live 50 miles from here. you were literally like 10 miles from the good stuff that was down towards Falmouth and Woods Hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does anyone have a take on what the EC ensembles had? My guess is they were not that good if not posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 anyway, still think there's room for a few NW ticks...might not save everyone in this forum but keeps the threat on the table for some I'm with you on this. For the SE MA, CC, Islands crew this thing should still be watched. Does not look like it will fully turn the corner but maybe just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 well i know you didn't get much the other night, but it's not like you live 50 miles from here. you were literally like 10 miles from the good stuff that was down towards Falmouth and Woods Hole. I am really not bummed or down. I agree with you, it's close enough from here to Bob to watch and even up to maybe Scott. I think we reached the right goalpost last night. Lets see how far left we can get today. You called it, I did not see this coming re the cape pattern. Hopefully this one can come left a bit and get everyone in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does anyone have a take on what the EC ensembles had? My guess is they were not that good if not posted The control run does not look any closer in terms of the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I skied with family and friends but maybe if you'd looked at the rap instead of the rpm you wouldn't have spent. 4 days and probably a 100 posts analyzing a .4" snowstorm in Boston. I'm surprised you can ski with that back injury you sustained from shoveling the feet of potential snow we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 STC from one of the best @MattNoyesNECN: Don't believe in Fri night snow for New England? U might be right! But here's why I expect some: http://t.co/huXLQ93E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 one thing that's evident on the GFS is a large are of weak mid-level lift over a pretty expansive region...so even if this ends up SE, maybe some light weenie snows over SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does anyone have a take on what the EC ensembles had? My guess is they were not that good if not posted I can't see QPF on the ensembles but at 84h, the sfc pressure map is almost dead on with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Oh well...it was fun hoping for something big but even if we can get some light snows amounting to a few inches or so it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro 0z looked better vs 12z or at least not worse. 6z gfs ticked a tad closer. And don't shoot me but after this event gfs tried to thwart the torch in favor of 1993-94 style overrunning. I've heard that season mentioned 93 or 94 times, yet we are snowing about as prolific a pace as last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't see QPF on the ensembles but at 84h, the sfc pressure map is almost dead on with the OP. A 30-50 mile shift on the op run beings big snows into the major population centre of BOS/PVD/ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 STC from one of the weenies best friend @MattNoyesNECN: Don't believe in Fri night snow for New England? U might be right! But here's why I expect some: http://t.co/huXLQ93E FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't see QPF on the ensembles but at 84h, the sfc pressure map is almost dead on with the OP. Thanks Will, My thinking because it was not posted that it either was the same as the op or slightly worse otherwise if it had trended more favorable it would have already been posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've heard that season mentioned 93 or 94 times, yet we are snowing about as prolific a pace as last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've heard that season mentioned 93 or 94 times, yet we are snowing about as prolific a pace as last season. Similar patterns don't always produce the same results! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've heard that season mentioned 93 or 94 times, yet we are snowing about as prolific a pace as last season. There are similarities to 93-94....EPO/AO good....NAO/PNA bad but the PV is not nearly as strong as it was in 93-94 and the timing has been off on everything, that year it seemed the timing worked out every single event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Like i had said yesterday, This winter is as bad as last year so far, We are just doing it differently this year then last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thanks Will, My thinking because it was not posted that it either was the same as the op or slightly worse otherwise if it had trended more favorable it would have already been posted Even BOX referred to in their AFD. It was nearly identical to the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 STC from one of the best @MattNoyesNECN: Don't believe in Fri night snow for New England? U might be right! But here's why I expect some: http://t.co/huXLQ93E Gotta hand it to him for getting right back on the horse after the norlun debacle, but his case isn't very convicing. Basically says he thinks there will be phasing, without giving any real meteorological explanation. He alludes to models' struggles with timing in a fast flow and references our cherished Gulf Stream, but it comes across as wishcasting to me. I love the guy, but that's not a very strong piece of analysis IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bone dry January so far. BOS to date about 25% of normal. That's our biggest problem, we do have the cold which seems predominant for awhile now but minimal qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 FYPSorry dude. If you read it you can see exactly why it should happen. You don't put something on the line like that in the countries biggest tv market unless its got a great chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 New Combinations=New Weather Pattern could equal same and/or different weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't see QPF on the ensembles but at 84h, the sfc pressure map is almost dead on with the OP.QPF was a little S and E of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 4.4" of snow for Jan so far here, That is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sorry dude. If you read it you can see exactly why it should happen. You don't put something on the line like that in the countries biggest tv market unless its got a great chance of verifying Here is my rebuttal to Matt's thinking. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON POTENTIAL SNOW STORM FORFRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MODELS DO AGREETHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING IS NOT LIKELY ASMULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AWEAKER STORM TRACKING S OF NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY APPRECIABLEDEEPENING OCCURRING TOO LATE AND WELL OFFSHORE TO SUPPORT A MAJORSNOW STORM FOR SNE. HOWEVER SOME SNOW ACCUM IS STILL LIKELY.GFS/NAM/GGEM ARE FARTHEST S WITH TRACK AND SUGGEST ONLY MINORACCUM AT BEST. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE GUIDANCE WITHA SLIGHTLY STRONGER STORM FURTHER N BUT EVEN THE ECMWF CONTINUESTO TREND DOWNWARD ON QPF AMOUNTS. SINCE WE ARE STILL 72 HOURS FROMTHE EVENT DONT THINK WE CAN DISCOUNT ANY SOLUTION. ECMWF ENSEMBLEMEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ISSLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST THAN OP GFS...SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD AECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST WHICH WILL RESULTIN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 QPF was a little S and E of the op beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jeff's seething....soon to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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