Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah the timing seems to have changed everything, Energy coming in elongated and some getting draw down and it was game over. We can only hope that maybe something ejects faster or is being missed. GFS FWIW isn't terrible for the outer Cape. I could see a similar outcome to a week ago where I get almost nothing and they get 2-4 on the outer cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Conventional wisdom is if it gets cold, snow will come. Ultimately the bottom line is we have been in a predominantly dry pattern for a long time with minor wet incursions. Yeah it's funny, people concentrate mostly on temperatures when making winter forecasts but sometimes it just comes down to lack of disturbances. I guess we got use to the moisture-laden years of 2010 and 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/01/substantial-friday-night-into-early-saturday-morning-snow-quite-possible-for-new-england.html Interesting.... Looking at the map though, doesn't it show Boston in the mix zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I caught Harv at the very end, he had a sun and a cloud for Friday, I guess he's thinking whiff?Bouchard still had 6" up on his screen but appears to be backing down calling it feeble. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/01/substantial-friday-night-into-early-saturday-morning-snow-quite-possible-for-new-england.htmlInteresting.... Looking at the map though, doesn't it show Boston in the mix zone? Not a good week or two for NECN. JMHO. I'm expecting little or nothing here, still pulling for the Cape but if we don't see good movement later tonight or in the morning.... The cutter looks good on the GFS, it'll nail that 7 days out just to piss us off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I caught Harv at the very end, he had a sun and a cloud for Friday, I guess he's thinking whiff? Bouchard still had 6" up on his screen but appears to be backing down calling it feeble. Not a good week or two for NECN. JMHO. True,,, I'm just latching on to any bit of hope at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 True,,, I'm just latching on to any bit of hope at this point. Matt Noyes was correct about 12/29... let's hope he gets this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Matt Noyes was correct about 12/29... let's hope he gets this one too. Yup...and this is exactly how he did it to. Came on and gave 12/29 a 70% chance of happening...even when he had little model support. He sees a handfull of things that the models aren't and would make a huge difference in the outcome. All the model are going to come in the same way until the recognize what he is thinking. He is not often this bold and end up completely wrong...but this might be one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Northern disturbance doesnt phase? Maybe the euro will give us some good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam is ugly Maybe that's a good thing given how the NAM has performed lately. lol How do the GGEM and Ukie look tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Name of the game this year is knowing when to ride a model and when to get off. I hope Matt is right but I think he is wrong. I'll be the first to jump for joy if we end up wit a regional snow event but I think this one is in a lot of trouble and said that here and to many in pm all day. I've taken a different approach the last week or two. I'm trying to be direct like I once was and not talk in circles about every possibility. I think this one is a se New England threat at best, and I expect little to nothing where I am at this point in time. Lets see how this verifies but the 96 hour nogaps rule is in effect. Ggem is now a total miss. Last night a wound up 995 west of the Bm tonight a 1005 well east. We get the 1mm line fringing the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Maybe that's a good thing given how the NAM has performed lately. lol How do the GGEM and Ukie look tonight? Ggem is a total miss now. Every run of every model but the ukmet has been getting worse for 12-24 hours.I think the euro is going to be much worse, as I'm sure most here do too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ggem is a total miss now. Every run of every model but the ukmet has been getting worse for 12-24 hours. I think the euro is going to be much worse, as I'm sure most here do too Yeah, the trends are definitely not good... I agree that the Euro probably won't be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I just can't envisiom a warning event in boston this year,lol. Btw what is the mjo amplitude and phase, looking wetter? I'm honestly glad its gonna be frigid, makes it seem like real winter. Last year we wouldn't get cold for more than 30 hrs! Baby steps people. Let's get blocking to return in feb/march, someone will cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I find it funny the NOGAPS is now more amped than the GFS...if you want to call it that but its probably about the same as the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 At least we can liken the H5 charts to '93-'94....who needs snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I find it funny the NOGAPS is now more amped than the GFS...if you want to call it that but its probably about the same as the Canadian. Usually a red flag... how far NW does it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jerry the only thing I wonder is if we're seeing the models lose one situation in favor of another like has happened with some famous cases over the years. IE, maybe it isn't the first wave that develops. That's the only thing I can see changing, because that s/w is smooshed as modeled by everything right now and is NBD. Interestingly the subtle disturbance kicking out at Day 6 generating the overrunning precipitation is the disturbance that gets hung up out west preventing this storm so that idea has some chance for coming true. 12/30/00 was supposed to be 12/28/00 but a strong shortwave exiting Canada squashed the southern stream disturbance...that same kicking shortwave out of Canada ultimately generated the 12/30/00 storm itself so the kicker kicked and then kicked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking like a whiff, sigh.. Been here two years, still waiting on a 4+" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking like a whiff, sigh.. Been here two years, still waiting on a 4+" storm. You came a year late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You came a year late. So I hear. Over 100" three years ago for BOS? I can't even fathom that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So I hear. Over 100" three years ago for BOS? I can't even fathom that.. That winter was...insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That winter was...heaven FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's not over yet but the fat lady is practicing her notes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not one to punt systems early but I am just about done with what this system has to offer. I think cold air was the demise of any potential for this system because models are giving it that southern trend. The cold air advection occurring in the trough for this system is causing a thermal gradient that puts this storm track just to far to our south for any interest. If air wasn't as cold I believe we would be looking at a further N stormtrack. Jet stream is rather zonal as well due to the lack of blocking which doesn't give this system any amplification anyways. It has punt written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So I hear. Over 100" three years ago for BOS? I can't even fathom that.. Not 100", but like 84-85" I think in 10-11. Two 12+ storms (maybe 3?) and I believe six 5+ storms. Here's a pic from two years ago on 1/27/11 out my back deck...the rails are about 5'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not one to punt systems early but I am just about done with what this system has to offer. I think cold air was the demise of any potential for this system because models are giving it that southern trend. The cold air advection occurring in the trough for this system is causing a thermal gradient that puts this storm track just to far to our south for any interest. If air wasn't as cold I believe we would be looking at a further N stormtrack. Jet stream is rather zonal as well due to the lack of blocking which doesn't give this system any amplification anyways. It has punt written all over it. Lol the first half of the winter, it was seemingly always too warm for storms. Now we get the cold air, and that cold air is preventing storms from hitting us. I should of found a new hobby years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lol the first half of the winter, it was seemingly always too warm for storms. Now we get the cold air, and that cold air is preventing storms from hitting us. I should of found a new hobby years ago. It's not the only cause, but I believe it is a very important factor in my opinion. The lack of blocking plays a large factor as well. I just think if the temperatures weren't as cold, yes, that trough would dig, but not as far south. Link that with the flow of the mid-upper levels, we'd see more action with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not 100", but like 84-85" I think in 10-11. Two 12+ storms (maybe 3?) and I believe six 5+ storms. Here's a pic from two years ago on 1/27/11 out my back deck...the rails are about 5'. Oops, I must have misread a statistic. Still, that's amazing to me, over 9 times what we had last year Oh well, just going to enjoy the weather I have, it's the only weather I've got. Gonna be up here at least a couple more years (hopefully more) so the law of averages eventually has to apply. Anyway, I saw this coming a mile away, one of the first posts in this thread I predicted this was gonna be a whiff.. ha. Maybe another storm will pop up in the near future, but I'm about ready to punt this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not 100", but like 84-85" I think in 10-11. Two 12+ storms (maybe 3?) and I believe six 5+ storms. Here's a pic from two years ago on 1/27/11 out my back deck...the rails are about 5'.That shot says it all. I got 66" that season. The one thing I'll never forget about 2010-11, aside from the amount of snow, is how it just piled up. No rain to speak of, or melting between storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 euro about .10-.25 for eastern sne(ri,se mass), extreme eastern areas a little higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.