dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I agree. The tell will be the 0z run tonight and the model trends of the GFS/GEFS, GGEM/ENS and Euro/ENS. If they come anywhere near looking as terrible as the NAM or continue in that direction I think we are starting to see the end game. The NCEP discussion isn't out yet, never say never on init errors. To me the whole thing was fried when the cutoff formed. I'll say this before the rest of the suite is out, I think this is a glancing blow at best. But it's 3 days away and that's subject to change. That would be a whiff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Got that meh feeling, waiting on our full moon Storm.Agree, not feeling this one. Then again when I do feel it nothing usually happens so maybe it's for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Got that meh feeling, waiting on our full moon Storm. Was hoping this would be a decent event, but what can you do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Was hoping this would be a decent event, but what can you do... You can always always just decide to toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That would be a whiff here I could be wrong, just offering my opinion. If we can at least get it close there's a chance it can come back north in the later stages but if the NAM stuff tonight is right there isn't much to come N, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'd give this one a bit more time...there's room synoptically for it, so if we get the energy, I think it can be a hit. The trend on the energy of course isn't very good right now. Hopefully the rest of 00z comes through better than 12z looked...early bed for me tonight though...busy work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not the flu?I hope not, just bleh. It would be nice if this storm works out, fits what I imagined would happen, cold shot with clipper then a moderate snow,cold shot then we reload with a biggie first week of Feb . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I could be wrong, just offering my opinion. If we can at least get it close there's a chance it can come back north in the later stages but if the NAM stuff tonight is right there isn't much to come N, lol. Well like i said, I would not let what goes on with the Nam sway me one way or another unless everything else goes in the crapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You can always always just decide to toss it Can't toss since I already punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The EC is turning into the UK with these random, nuclear runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The EC is turning into the UK with these random, nuclear runs. The EC is turning into the UK with these random, nuclear runs.I remember when 96 was as reliable as Tom Brady was in the Red Zone. Sometimes fine tuning the best is not needed and screws up a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The EC is turning into the UK with these random, nuclear runs. Speaking of.nuclear, Noyes just posted a neat.radar.cap showing steam from a nuke plant in PA that has produced an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Too tired to care tonight but suffice it to say ole man winter is roaring tonight and in general, for the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RGEM H5 at 48 hrs out west is absolutely nothing like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Noyes just tweeted he expects either 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow of the Euro to be even more impressive then last nights lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I remember when 96 was as reliable as Tom Brady in the was Red Zone. Sometimes fine tuning the best is not needed and screws up a good thing. You know what they say if its not broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RGEM H5 at 48 hrs out west is absolutely nothing like the NAM No cutoff, but it's also quite a bit further north with the energy along the border (and not as strong) vs earlier RGEm runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Speaking of.nuclear, Noyes just posted a neat.radar.cap showing steam from a nuke plant in PA that has produced an inch of snow Similarly, cooling pools in north central Illinois did the same thing last night. Almost like tea kettle lake effect with the pools being so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LOL...the Philly storm thread has not had a post in 45 minutes...you don't even need to look at the 00Z NAM, if you saw that you'd know what the NAM showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Similarly, cooling pools in north central Illinois did the same thing last night. Almost like tea kettle lake effect with the pools being so warm. Are you doing short or long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think we may see some movement tonight back somewhat favorably with the rest of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Are you doing short or long term? Long term, but these evening shifts are mostly training unless weather is ongoing. So I'm learning about our latest radar build upgrade. I'll get this "storm" once I come around to the short term Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Long term, but these evening shifts are mostly training unless weather is ongoing. So I'm learning about our latest radar build upgrade. I'll get this "storm" once I come around to the short term Friday. Like the quotes around storm............... Hopefully we have one for you to work on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think we may see some movement tonight back somewhat favorably with the rest of the guidanceWhy? To me the pattern supports a decent NE moderate snow event but getting sweet STJ energy has been like pulling teeth. We need to break that mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS doesn't have the cutoff but it did ramp up the energy out west at the expense of the s/w that was riding along the Canadian border (similar to the RGEM). I'd think that leads to less of a situation here on the east coast, but I could be wrong. at 42 hours it's way further north than the earlier runs. into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why? To me the pattern supports a decent NE moderate snow event but getting sweet STJ energy has been like pulling teeth. We need to break that mold. I know it does, We just need to see more interaction and sooner with both streams, It has to happen at some point or it won't matter, It will be another wasted opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Too tired to care tonight but suffice it to say ole man winter is roaring tonight and in general, for the next several weeks. This pattern blows...I liked the torch better. Now it's into Feb....the "big one" is back pedaling incessantly. This has been the winter of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS doesn't have the cutoff but it did ramp up the energy out west at the expense of the s/w that was riding along the Canadian border (similar to the RGEM). I'd think that leads to less of a situation here on the east coast, but I could be wrong. at 42 hours it's way further north than the earlier runs. into Canada. No way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This pattern blows...I liked the torch better. Now it's into Feb....the "big one" is back pedaling incessantly. This has been the winter of potential Especially at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I know it does, We just need to see more interaction and sooner with both streams, It has to happen at some point or it won't matter, It will be another wasted opportunitySeparate threads for separate streams then we can merge them if they phase? Lol. STJ needs some roids MJO style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.