dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The cigar fool, not that lmao. lol, That's what some of my golf buddies call it, Me its cigars........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM was pre-tossed even though the changes it made are well within it's normal strike zone. NAM may be un-pre-tossed by the time the rest of the 0z suite is in or if it develops a bomb later in the run. Don't look like we are going to see any phasing with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We need to start a cigar thread...does that belong in OT though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We need to start a cigar thread...does that belong in OT though? Yeah, They had one in there but i stay out of that cesspool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cigars are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah, They had one in there but i stay out of that cesspoolUgh...too bad we can't create one in here...Anyway, back to Fridays monster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't look like we are going to see any phasing with this run Stay the course. The changes are a little suspicious in how it develops a separate cutoff over CA this run. But if that's right turn out the lights Irene, this would be the biggest bust of the Kuro since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cigars are great. They are, I have a humidor here at home and at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 One last comment on cigars - we need to plan a cigar gtg at a cigar bar. Not much better than cigars and talking weather...although I would listen as I don't know a lot about weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 They are, I have a humidor here at home and at work Wow at work lol. I only have two at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM looks suppressed, or maybe the correct term not sufficiently amplified because suppression with this system is not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Stay the course. The changes are a little suspicious in how it develops a separate cutoff over CA this run. But if that's right turn out the lights Irene, this would be the biggest bust of the Kuro since yesterday. lol, Just a progressive wave, What a POS the Nam is, Its sad, Wasted American dollars...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wow at work lol. I only have two at home I own my company......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, Just a progressive wave, What a POS the Nam is, Its sad, Wasted American dollars...............lolLast nights 18 Z run was the caution flag though, it is worthwhile 3 hours prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 They are, I have a humidor here at home and at workMonica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Last nights 18 Z run was the caution flag though, it is worthwhile 3 hours prior. I guess we will wait until sat am then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Monica? Yeah hand dipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, Just a progressive wave, What a POS the Nam is, Its sad, Wasted American dollars...............lol Impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Impossible Yeah certainly none of that ever happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, Just a progressive wave, What a POS the Nam is, Its sad, Wasted American dollars...............lol It's the changes it makes inside of 12-18 hours this run that influence the rest of the run. We'll see fairly quickly if the other models are on board. A flat wave is a very real possibility but I'd still favor a glancing blow at least over the Cape and Islands pending the rest of this suite. If one looks subjectively at the trends here's what you have: 12z --> 18z --> 0z NAM all get worse each run 12z --> 18z GFS worse 12z --> 18z GEFS worse 0z --> 12z Euro worse 0z --> 12z GGEM and GGEM ensembles worse 12z --> 18z NOGAPS same or slightly worse 4 day NOGAPS rule is if it is within the cone of the other models those models are going to move. We'll see post GFS, but it won't surprise me if the rest of the suite wanders SE so long as those changes inside of 12-18 on the NAM aren't explained away directly or indirectly by verification errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Its to bad the Nam is not the last model out every day because i would never look at it, Well maybe just a peek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's the changes it makes inside of 12-18 hours this run that influence the rest of the run. We'll see fairly quickly if the other models are on board. A flat wave is a very real possibility. If one looks subjectively at the trends here's what you have: 12z --> 18z --> 0z NAM all get worse each run 12z --> 18z GFS worse 12z --> 18z GEFS worse 0z --> 12z Euro worse 0z --> 12z GGEM and GGEM ensembles worse 12z --> 18z NOGAPS same or slightly worse 4 day NOGAPS rule is if it is within the cone of the other models those models are going to move. We'll see post GFS, but it won't surprise me if the rest of the suite wanders SE so long as those changes inside of 12-18 on the NAM aren't explained away directly or indirectly by verification errors. That's why i mentioned earlier, We are going to need to see at least some movement back NW soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM was pre-tossed even though the changes it made are well within it's normal strike zone. NAM may be un-pre-tossed by the time the rest of the 0z suite is in or if it develops a bomb later in the run. The problem with the NAM in this event could be that the setup is insanely complicated out west and the NAM is horrendous on the West Coast and never picks up things out of the Pacifc very well...of course if all other models are similar who really cares but the NAM may be the monkey wrench guru the next day or two even if the other models come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's why i mentioned earlier, We are going to need to see at least some movement back NW soon NW movement begins tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Got that meh feeling, waiting on our full moon Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Got that meh feeling, waiting on our full moon Storm. Not the flu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The problem with the NAM in this event could be that the setup is insanely complicated out west and the NAM is horrendous on the West Coast and never picks up things out of the Pacifc very well...of course if all other models are similar who really cares but the NAM may be the monkey wrench guru the next day or two even if the other models come back. I agree. The tell will be the 0z run tonight and the model trends of the GFS/GEFS, GGEM/ENS and Euro/ENS. If they come anywhere near looking as terrible as the NAM or continue in that direction I think we are starting to see the end game. The NCEP discussion isn't out yet, never say never on init errors. To me the whole thing was fried when the cutoff formed. I'll say this before the rest of the suite is out, I think this is a glancing blow at best. But it's 3 days away and that's subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM has no snow north of Richmond Virginia. Good news is that it can't get any worse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's the changes it makes inside of 12-18 hours this run that influence the rest of the run. We'll see fairly quickly if the other models are on board. A flat wave is a very real possibility but I'd still favor a glancing blow at least over the Cape and Islands pending the rest of this suite. If one looks subjectively at the trends here's what you have: 12z --> 18z --> 0z NAM all get worse each run 12z --> 18z GFS worse 12z --> 18z GEFS worse 0z --> 12z Euro worse 0z --> 12z GGEM and GGEM ensembles worse 12z --> 18z NOGAPS same or slightly worse 4 day NOGAPS rule is if it is within the cone of the other models those models are going to move. We'll see post GFS, but it won't surprise me if the rest of the suite wanders SE so long as those changes inside of 12-18 on the NAM aren't explained away directly or indirectly by verification errors. The NOGAPS being so far northwest for seemingly ever worried me about a north track, then it came way south last night so I felt we were in business where the other models were at. The 00, 06Z NAM runs though being progressive last night were immediate red flags to me, you almost never want to see any storm progged to hit the coastal areas be near the coastal areas on the NAM at 78-84 hours, if you see that it often means you're going to see the globals start moving south and east...the NAM loves being N and W late in its runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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