PWMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah thankfully BOX put out a map so folks are prepared for the 8" on Friday night. I'm also surprised that they'd put out a map this early, but I really think folks are overreacting re: the public impact. I'd venture that 90% of the traffic they get on that page is from junkies like us; the general population gets its forecasts from local TV, radio or TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hope you haven't wavered from your regionwide 4-8 inch call at noontime for all of SNE Nope...except prob eastern SNE now. If it looks like it does at 12z tomorrow then that gets punted. While I love giving you crap, it pains me that you have a couple valid points and this one could easily nudge back north. I do think its game over for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAO is neutral.. So use some simple deduction and what that should mean for a storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAO is neutral.. So use some simple deduction and what that should mean for a storm track Right but go back to my post earlier today. There is no block to force it south, but progressive flow can cause a lack of amplification. But, I have a suspicion it tries to tickle NW over the next 24 hours of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What would Joe Bastardi do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nope...except prob eastern SNE now. If it looks like it does at 12z tomorrow then that gets punted. While I love giving you crap, it pains me that you have a couple valid points and this one could easily nudge back north. I do think its game over for CNE/NNE. Contrary to what some believe I do know what I'm talking about and back it up with reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Are you in high school yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Contrary to what some believe I do know what I'm talking about and back it up with reasoning. nope, sorry "we toss" isnt reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 BOX pulled their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 nope, sorry "we toss" isnt reasoning.Hurricane Sandy says hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Right but go back to my post earlier today. There is no block to force it south, but progressive flow can cause a lack of amplification. But, I have a suspicion it tries to tickle NW over the next 24 hours of guidance. I was looking at the last 4 GFS runs earlier and didn't like how every run is slower in moving the Thursday s/w out of here. It's giving our s/w less opportunity to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hurricane Sandy says hello. But it wasn't even a big deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I was looking at the last 4 GFS runs earlier and didn't like how every run is slower in moving the Thursday s/w out of here. It's giving our s/w less opportunity to amplify. I said from 3 days back I suspected that clipper blowing up off the Delmarva could be a problem because the very first GFS run that lost the storm, I think the 06Z run 2-3 nights ago had that disturbance exploding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I was looking at the last 4 GFS runs earlier and didn't like how every run is slower in moving the Thursday s/w out of here. It's giving our s/w less opportunity to amplify. I thought about that but when I looked, it moved away in time. To me, the difference was out west. I mean....it might affect it to some extent, but I didn't think it was detrimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's voodoo It is when there's a bunch of embedded speedmaxes in the flow. It's a placement and timing issue more than strength to some degree as we found the other night. Yeah, they are sending the recon flights just to be extra sure the storm will be suppressed. This won't be suppressed you just live too far north. I was looking at the last 4 GFS runs earlier and didn't like how every run is slower in moving the Thursday s/w out of here. It's giving our s/w less opportunity to amplify. We toss these thoughts. I said from 3 days back I suspected that clipper blowing up off the Delmarva could be a problem because the very first GFS run that lost the storm, I think the 06Z run 2-3 nights ago had that disturbance exploding. These thoughts are tossed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It is when there's a bunch of embedded speedmaxes in the flow. It's a placement and timing issue more than strength to some degree as we found the other night. This won't be suppressed you just live too far north. We toss these thoughts. These thoughts are tossed as well. It's not tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's not tossed. I'm tossing your post too. We're moments away from the most important model run of our lives, we need to focus, nothing but positive thoughts. Let us hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 level heads shall prevail.........stay the course and remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I thought about that but when I looked, it moved away in time. To me, the difference was out west. I mean....it might affect it to some extent, but I didn't think it was detrimental.I agree that it doesn't look detrimental, especially for you guys, but I didn't care for the run-to-run trend wrt that. The s/w coming ashore out west was definitely crappier on the 18z run too. I've been on the eventual NW trend camp for a few days and I'm staying the course, but I'm having doubts for mby. I'll wait out 00z before getting too pessimistic for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so will this be in the 0z models or do we have to wait? II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: TODAY'S NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR TRACK P-46 WILL NOW BE FLOWN CLOCKWISE WITH A 22/1900Z TAKEOFF TIME AND CONTROL POINT SET AT DROP POINT 8 FOR 23/0000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I agree that it doesn't look detrimental, especially for you guys, but I didn't care for the run-to-run trend wrt that. The s/w coming ashore out west was definitely crappier on the 18z run too. I've been on the eventual NW trend camp for a few days and I'm staying the course, but I'm having doubts for mby. I'll wait out 00z before getting too pessimistic for here. Don't get me wrong, I'm concerned about a nice altostratus deck here too. Just my previous experience with the PAC stuff makes me think the GFS especially is too flat...but it's not like I feel 90/10 about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I agree that it doesn't look detrimental, especially for you guys, but I didn't care for the run-to-run trend wrt that. The s/w coming ashore out west was definitely crappier on the 18z run too. I've been on the eventual NW trend camp for a few days and I'm staying the course, but I'm having doubts for mby. I'll wait out 00z before getting too pessimistic for here. Wise choice, NCEP guidance has been overshooting generally on the changes. Hold the course until after the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so will this be in the 0z models or do we have to wait?II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: TODAY'S NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR TRACK P-46 WILL NOW BE FLOWN CLOCKWISE WITH A 22/1900Z TAKEOFF TIME AND CONTROL POINT SET AT DROP POINT 8 FOR 23/0000Z. That would have to be in the 00z suite I'd guess if they are dropping it at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nice warm and fuzzy in this thread tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the last few pages quieted down but this thread enjoyed about 6 hours of utter disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Most important runs of today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I really want to stay the course, but I have my toaster in hand and my foot over the ledge so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the last few pages quieted down but this thread enjoyed about 6 hours of utter disaster. Well no matter what, Feb will come roaring in. Check out Sam's post in the main thread. Look at those years and what followed shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Feb better roar in because march is right after it and it will be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Was just about to deploy that Pit of Woe gif. Utter disaster in this thread today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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