Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You can tell it crapped the bed based on the lack of in-depth analysis. No one cares about what fish get 4-8" and which ones jackpot. Somewhere out there, some weenie fish living in the Gulf Stream are chucking 'em high and far. This won't help. JMHO this one is slipping away fast in terms of east. Looks good for Phil and Ackwaves, AIT. Hoping the 0z will come around but as of right now my bet would be on a similar setup to the last two with the maxes on the cape/ack, and I'm left sniffing cirrus flakes. Plenty of time left, stay the course. We toss the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't look at the 18z GFS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looks good for Phil and Ackwaves, AIT. verbatim that's even pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 verbatim that's even pushing it NCEP models are like SNE posters, prone to extremes. Most of the time they're too extreme on the changes and wander back later. We also have the NOGAPs rule, there's almost no shot it's right at 96 hours, so we can be pretty safe this storm is either going well SE of current progs or is going to wander back. I think there's a decent shot in the majority that it's not done flattening. We will see. SE New England from KTAN to ACK is still in the best chance area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah not feeling it. Won't be shocked if it comes back west but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Thankfully we have mets like Noyes and others who know to stay the course. Judging from some if these posts if you simply read this forum you'd actually think there was no snowstorm coming Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thankfully we have mets like Noyes and others who know to stay the course. Judging from some if these posts if you simply read this forum you'd actually think there was no snowstorm coming Friday night You are a piece of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thankfully we have mets like Noyes and others who know to stay the course. Judging from some if these posts if you simply read this forum you'd actually think there was no snowstorm coming Friday night Thankfully this forum exists to keep expectations in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just logged on and now im really confused. Whats going on with this storm? Last night it seemed great but people Seem dissapointed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Maybe I will crash at Phil's Friday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Maybe I will crash at Phil's Friday Night. He's probably going to end up mixing in this after all the suppressed talk today, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You are a piece of work.Im referring to the weenies who are calling it a total whiff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He's probably going to end up mixing in this after all the suppressed talk today, lol.You can go back and think if probably 50 -100 events over our years on the forums where this happened. Then at day 3 as the energy finally comes onshore the NW trend starts. It's just amusing to watch time and again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He's probably going to end up mixing in this after all the suppressed talk today, lol.You can go back and think if probably 50 -100 events over our years on the forums where this happened. Then at day 3 as the energy finally comes onshore the NW trend starts. It's just amusing to watch time and again It could come closer...but will have nothing to do with energy coming onshore out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Maybe I will crash at Phil's Friday Night. He's probably going to end up mixing in this after all the suppressed talk today, lol. 00z euro did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It could come closer...but will have nothing to do with energy coming onshore out west.Dont agree. There's def some validity to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He's probably going to end up mixing in this after all the suppressed talk today, lol. Mixing with moon beams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You can go back and think if probably 50 -100 events over our years on the forums where this happened. Then at day 3 as the energy finally comes onshore the NW trend starts. It's just amusing to watch time and again The assimilation issues are not nearly as great as they once were. I won't be surprised if the vortmax trends stronger again and the phasing happens easier....but bad sampling is not as common as when we had worse satellite data, though obviously it can still be an issue from time to time which is why they call recon flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The assimilation issues are not nearly as great as they once were. I won't be surprised if the vortmax trends stronger again and the phasing happens easier....but bad sampling is not as common as when we had worse satellite data, though obviously it can still be an issue from time to time which is why they call recon flights.Yeah they think this is one of those as they sent in recon for 00z runs. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 "Just logged on and now im really confused. Whats going on with this storm? Last night it seemed great but people Seem dissapointed now." Models keeping system to the south. JMA/Euro/GEM still look promising. It's still 3-days out though I don't buy into much until 48-hour window approaches. I get the vibe most have already punted this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think how much a split in the energy coming ashore occurs will have more to do with what happens vs strength as it'll effect the timing. Grammar in the previous sentence FTL. Clearly the recon flights mean this will trend much snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He's probably going to end up mixing in this after all the suppressed talk today, lol. Did it not look a little weird to see that vortmax yet the low pressure so far south? I understand the therml gradient is compressed, but I would have thought the low was further north. That's probably why the low turns north right when it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAO is neutral.. So use some simple deduction and what that should mean for a storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is my take on this one for me...others may be fine (in SE NE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thankfully we have mets like Noyes and others who know to stay the course. Judging from some if these posts if you simply read this forum you'd actually think there was no snowstorm coming Friday night Yeah thankfully BOX put out a map so folks are prepared for the 8" on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Did it not look a little weird to see that vortmax yet the low pressure so far south? I understand the therml gradient is compressed, but I would have thought the low was further north. That's probably why the low turns north right when it develops. Yeah some of the solutions have a decent vortmax track but the low is well displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah thankfully BOX put out a map so folks are prepared for the 8" on Friday night.Hope you haven't wavered from your regionwide 4-8 inch call at noontime for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It could come closer...but will have nothing to do with energy coming onshore out west.Dont agree. There's def some validity to that It's voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah they think this is one of those as they sent in recon for 00z runs. Makes sense Yeah, they are sending the recon flights just to be extra sure the storm will be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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