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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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In all seriousness though - this has happened many times before.  It appears as though it is going out to sea only to make a significant shift NW...Boxing Day comes to mind.  I could be wrong though...

 

JMHO, before we get ahead of ourselves it's pretty common for the NCEP guidance to adjust to one extreme while the Euro slowly moves in that direction.  Not worried yet for Phil to Ack.

 

If I had to pull a BOX and map it, it'd only be a coating to 2" here right now.

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I actually thought the 18z was better than the 12z GFS. They both stink, but 18z had a much more stout western ridge and better phasing than the 12z run...still does it too late.

 

What's the deal on the 18z UK?  It looked like crap to me, but is it a legit run?  It's leagues faster than it's earlier run, looks like everything else.

 

RGEM moved a little bit towards this new theme too.

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What's the deal on the 18z UK?  It looked like crap to me, but is it a legit run?  It's leagues faster than it's earlier run, looks like everything else.

 

RGEM moved a little bit towards this new theme too.

 

 

I can't see the 18z UKMEt, where are you getting it?

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PSU.  I'm not sure it's the real deal because it just changed/updated again.  Looks kind of similar.

 

 

The plymouth state site changes the timestamp during the off hour runs but it actually isn't the off hour run, its the same 12z run (or 00z if you look at it around the 06z suite). So It tells you 72 hours is valid on 18z Friday, but its really still the 12z 72h map. They are identical.

 

This is only for the UKMEt...it updates for the NCEP off hour runs correctly from what I've seen.

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That lead s/w needs to slow down or the northern s/w needs to speed up if we want anything bigger. So close either way.

it seems like gettin a phase w such fast flow is threading the needle wrt timing for a phase. With sandy there was a crazy anamolous block with so much wiggle room wrt timing the euro phased it like 17 runs in a row from 8 days out. This pattern is w/o n.a block so I really won't be shockd if it loses phase from here on out.
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The plymouth state site changes the timestamp during the off hour runs but it actually isn't the off hour run, its the same 12z run (or 00z if you look at it around the 06z suite). So It tells you 72 hours is valid on 18z Friday, but its really still the 12z 72h map. They are identical.

 

This is only for the UKMEt...it updates for the NCEP off hour runs correctly from what I've seen.

 

Yeah, it seems to be the case that it's identical. 

 

 

NOGAPS is a whiff, wide right at 18z. 

post-3232-0-19574900-1358893551_thumb.gi

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The plymouth state site changes the timestamp during the off hour runs but it actually isn't the off hour run, its the same 12z run (or 00z if you look at it around the 06z suite). So It tells you 72 hours is valid on 18z Friday, but its really still the 12z 72h map. They are identical.

 

This is only for the UKMEt...it updates for the NCEP off hour runs correctly from what I've seen.

I believe Univ Wyo has some fields available for the off hour Ukie.
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I wrote this on my blog on Sunday afternoon the 13th, about the possibility of s snowstorm here on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning of last week, only two days prior this is the way it looked, and look at which two models were correct. Maybe they will be again? Maybe they have a better handle on this pattern, maybe? We ended up getting 4 inches of snow.

Then there is a slight chance of more snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The European and American models keep this storm just to the south of us, but the British, Japanese and Canadian models all bring the storm far enough to the north to give us a significant snowstorm on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so this situation needs to be watched closely.

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