Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In all seriousness though - this has happened many times before. It appears as though it is going out to sea only to make a significant shift NW...Boxing Day comes to mind. I could be wrong though... JMHO, before we get ahead of ourselves it's pretty common for the NCEP guidance to adjust to one extreme while the Euro slowly moves in that direction. Not worried yet for Phil to Ack. If I had to pull a BOX and map it, it'd only be a coating to 2" here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It will get caught in the Gulf Stream and bring 12"+ to SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I actually thought the 18z was better than the 12z GFS. They both stink, but 18z had a much more stout western ridge and better phasing than the 12z run...still does it too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I actually thought the 18z was better than the 12z GFS. They both stink, but 18z had a much more stout western ridge and better phasing than the 12z run...still does it too late.Nah suppression and dustings for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nah suppression and dustings for all Riding the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I actually thought the 18z was better than the 12z GFS. They both stink, but 18z had a much more stout western ridge and better phasing than the 12z run...still does it too late. What's the deal on the 18z UK? It looked like crap to me, but is it a legit run? It's leagues faster than it's earlier run, looks like everything else. RGEM moved a little bit towards this new theme too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Riding the JMA? How much you expecting in Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What's the deal on the 18z UK? It looked like crap to me, but is it a legit run? It's leagues faster than it's earlier run, looks like everything else. RGEM moved a little bit towards this new theme too. I can't see the 18z UKMEt, where are you getting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How much you expecting in Plymouth? Well, I'm in Shrewsbury, MA. But most likely Plymouth won't get much in this. 16" for Amherst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, I'm in Shrewsbury, MA. But most likely Plymouth won't get much in this. 16" for Amherst? lolli's to 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It would only make sense for Baltimore to get buried while were high and dry and I go back Sunday when their hit friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I can't see the 18z UKMEt, where are you getting it? PSU. I'm not sure it's the real deal because it just changed/updated again. Looks kind of similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 PSU. I'm not sure it's the real deal because it just changed/updated again. Looks kind of similar. The plymouth state site changes the timestamp during the off hour runs but it actually isn't the off hour run, its the same 12z run (or 00z if you look at it around the 06z suite). So It tells you 72 hours is valid on 18z Friday, but its really still the 12z 72h map. They are identical. This is only for the UKMEt...it updates for the NCEP off hour runs correctly from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You still not worried about suppression? That was a bait post. If you keep expectations reasonable, then no I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That lead s/w needs to slow down or the northern s/w needs to speed up if we want anything bigger. So close either way. it seems like gettin a phase w such fast flow is threading the needle wrt timing for a phase. With sandy there was a crazy anamolous block with so much wiggle room wrt timing the euro phased it like 17 runs in a row from 8 days out. This pattern is w/o n.a block so I really won't be shockd if it loses phase from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The plymouth state site changes the timestamp during the off hour runs but it actually isn't the off hour run, its the same 12z run (or 00z if you look at it around the 06z suite). So It tells you 72 hours is valid on 18z Friday, but its really still the 12z 72h map. They are identical. This is only for the UKMEt...it updates for the NCEP off hour runs correctly from what I've seen. Yeah, it seems to be the case that it's identical. NOGAPS is a whiff, wide right at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The plymouth state site changes the timestamp during the off hour runs but it actually isn't the off hour run, its the same 12z run (or 00z if you look at it around the 06z suite). So It tells you 72 hours is valid on 18z Friday, but its really still the 12z 72h map. They are identical. This is only for the UKMEt...it updates for the NCEP off hour runs correctly from what I've seen. I believe Univ Wyo has some fields available for the off hour Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The NOGAPS did stellar with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The NOGAPS did stellar with Sandy. We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The NOGAPS did stellar with Sandy.So did nor'easter 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I believe Univ Wyo has some fields available for the off hour Ukie. Plymouth does as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So did nor'easter 27 Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Plymouth does as wellNo it doesn't...Will explained it above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No it doesn't...Will explained it above. My mistake... I missed his post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yoda stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I actually thought the 18z was better than the 12z GFS. They both stink, but 18z had a much more stout western ridge and better phasing than the 12z run...still does it too late. yup, looks better. baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What is going in here? lots of weenie posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wrote this on my blog on Sunday afternoon the 13th, about the possibility of s snowstorm here on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning of last week, only two days prior this is the way it looked, and look at which two models were correct. Maybe they will be again? Maybe they have a better handle on this pattern, maybe? We ended up getting 4 inches of snow. Then there is a slight chance of more snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The European and American models keep this storm just to the south of us, but the British, Japanese and Canadian models all bring the storm far enough to the north to give us a significant snowstorm on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so this situation needs to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 You can tell it crapped the bed based on the lack of in-depth analysis. No one cares about what fish get 4-8" and which ones jackpot. Somewhere out there, some weenie fish living in the Gulf Stream are chucking 'em high and far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS Ensembles are ugly. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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