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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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Well, now  that that BOX map is out there, anybody want to venture a guess which models they used to derive it?  Does the 12z Euro even show that much?  hmmm.. must be using a Ukie, JMA GFS blend!     :axe:

 

Per their discussion, they're leaning toward a Euro-GFS compromise that they view to have been well-represented by the Euro ens.

 

But, I concur; putting out a map when there's this level of uncertainty seems a bit aggressive.

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Fun for weenie fodder, but I don't know if I would have the confidence to show NWS partners that yet.

 

 

That's ballsy, I understand that modeling does target that area right now but still, Its not like there would be holiday travel or anything that you would want to get an early warning out on

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That's ballsy, I understand that modeling does target that area right now but still, Its not like there would be holiday travel or anything that you would want to get an early warning out on

 

 

If you look at their confidence maps, they're basically saying 1 in 3 chance of seeing 8" of snow, yet a map with 6-8" over a relatively large area is available to the public. I would much rather leave those probability maps there for the public and get rid of the storm total graphic.

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If this has already been posted, let me know and I will delete

 

I don't recall BOX putting out a map like this this far in advance of something before:

 

Good stuff, best winter ever for predicted snowfall. 

 

Why not? They're on a hot streak after last night.

 

Same as the KURO, en fuego

 

these tempered approaches ARE people staying the course.  Progressive, low PF events have been the course this year and it continues to be the same except now its much colder.  Warm dry pattern turns to cold dry pattern...that's the course we are staying on.  Even if this takes the perfect track for the northeast I-95 corridor the flow is so progressive that it is at best a stripe of 3-6 inches.  

 

This I don't agree with to be honest.  Systems haven't been taking a great track which is why we aren't getting a lot of snow.  IF we do get a system that does, we'll get buried. 

 

I feel like they have done this before...

 

Groundhog pattern but colder.   Next one is flat like a kids waterslide...?

FWIW, based on E-Wall graphics, only 1 out of 21 SREF members (15z) shows significant snow for southern New England with this system.

We toss. When the model that's forecast back to back mod-major snowbusts is a 1 to 20 shot...time to hedge.

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these tempered approaches ARE people staying the course.  Progressive, low PF events have been the course this year and it continues to be the same except now its much colder.  Warm dry pattern turns to cold dry pattern...that's the course we are staying on.  Even if this takes the perfect track for the northeast I-95 corridor the flow is so progressive that it is at best a stripe of 3-6 inches.  

 

Not if its gets captured like last nights euro showed, not saying its going to happen but its on the table along with a lot of other outcomes.

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