SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I feel like they have done this before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Why would you post a map 4 days out that's insane Fun for weenie fodder, but I don't know if I would have the confidence to show NWS partners that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Walter Drag is firing off a nasty email to WSI right now He hasn't been at BOX in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, now that that BOX map is out there, anybody want to venture a guess which models they used to derive it? Does the 12z Euro even show that much? hmmm.. must be using a Ukie, JMA GFS blend! Per their discussion, they're leaning toward a Euro-GFS compromise that they view to have been well-represented by the Euro ens. But, I concur; putting out a map when there's this level of uncertainty seems a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 He hasn't been at BOX in awhile. I know, lol We often bring former Boston area personalities into the fray... Shelby Scott is really upset at Scooter right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Stay the goddamn course. 12-18 incoming.. hvy hvy deep winter incomingwe toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Fun for weenie fodder, but I don't know if I would have the confidence to show NWS partners that yet. That's ballsy, I understand that modeling does target that area right now but still, Its not like there would be holiday travel or anything that you would want to get an early warning out on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Walter Drag is firing off a nasty email to WSI right now That's JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well look who issued the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, based on E-Wall graphics, only 1 out of 21 SREF members (15z) shows significant snow for southern New England with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, based on E-Wall graphics, only 1 out of 21 SREF members (15z) shows significant snow for southern New England with this system. Outside their range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's ballsy, I understand that modeling does target that area right now but still, Its not like there would be holiday travel or anything that you would want to get an early warning out on If you look at their confidence maps, they're basically saying 1 in 3 chance of seeing 8" of snow, yet a map with 6-8" over a relatively large area is available to the public. I would much rather leave those probability maps there for the public and get rid of the storm total graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, based on E-Wall graphics, only 1 out of 21 SREF members (15z) shows significant snow for southern New England with this system. And 20 of 21 showed significant snow for last night's thing. We toss. They really have been abysmal this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If this has already been posted, let me know and I will delete I don't recall BOX putting out a map like this this far in advance of something before: Good stuff, best winter ever for predicted snowfall. Why not? They're on a hot streak after last night. Same as the KURO, en fuego these tempered approaches ARE people staying the course. Progressive, low PF events have been the course this year and it continues to be the same except now its much colder. Warm dry pattern turns to cold dry pattern...that's the course we are staying on. Even if this takes the perfect track for the northeast I-95 corridor the flow is so progressive that it is at best a stripe of 3-6 inches. This I don't agree with to be honest. Systems haven't been taking a great track which is why we aren't getting a lot of snow. IF we do get a system that does, we'll get buried. I feel like they have done this before... Groundhog pattern but colder. Next one is flat like a kids waterslide...? FWIW, based on E-Wall graphics, only 1 out of 21 SREF members (15z) shows significant snow for southern New England with this system. We toss. When the model that's forecast back to back mod-major snowbusts is a 1 to 20 shot...time to hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, based on E-Wall graphics, only 1 out of 21 SREF members (15z) shows significant snow for southern New England with this system. MBN3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's JMHO. jk I can't recall seeing a map issued this far out, especially since so much is unclear attm. KURO is getting fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't look at the 18z GFS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Maybe BOX is trying to cover up their blunder for last night's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't look at the 18z GFS..lol. Nice for the Baltimore peeps. And we need more cold, sunny days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't look at the 18z GFS..lol. You still not worried about suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't look at the 18z GFS..lol. Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Maybe BOX is trying to cover up their blunder for last night's system. By doubling it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Maybe BOX is trying to cover up their blunder for last night's system. Or make it worse??? Terrible decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All together now... W E T O S S ! ! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You still not worried about suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In all seriousness though - this has happened many times before. It appears as though it is going out to sea only to make a significant shift NW...Boxing Day comes to mind. I could be wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In all seriousness though - this has happened many times before. It appears as though it is going out to sea only to make a significant shift NW...Boxing Day comes to mind. I could be wrong though... It will get caught in the Gulf Stream and bring 12"+ to SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What haven't we tossed today? The JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 these tempered approaches ARE people staying the course. Progressive, low PF events have been the course this year and it continues to be the same except now its much colder. Warm dry pattern turns to cold dry pattern...that's the course we are staying on. Even if this takes the perfect track for the northeast I-95 corridor the flow is so progressive that it is at best a stripe of 3-6 inches. Not if its gets captured like last nights euro showed, not saying its going to happen but its on the table along with a lot of other outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How many times to we have to tell everyone about the GFS, Its garbage, Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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