January 25-26 Storm Potential

[dryslot]

Howes the norlun working out today? 

 

 

lol, Would not have been part of it if it did work out so i had little interest in it other then watching the trends on radar to see it it developed, But thanks for asking..........

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NCEP says take a 12z Euro and 12z GFS compromise, that seems like the sensible approach for right now.

 

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS QUESTIONABLE EARLY ACROSS THE WEST
COAST ON WED IN BREAKING OFF A PIECE OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND MERGING IT INTO THE SERN PACIFIC CLOSED
CLOSED LOW. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS ROBUST NRN STREAM TROUGH
REACHING THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND INTERACTION WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN SRN CANADA THOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH EAST
OF THE MISS RIVER...SIMILAR BUT WEAKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.
THEREFORE...BELIEVE THE 12Z ECMWF IS REASONABLE AFTER 12Z FRI.

WHILE THE 12Z CMC IS STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS
IT CROSSES THE MISS RIVER...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING FULL ON
TOWARD THE WEAKER NCEP GUIDANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER A
12Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH
AGREEMENT BY THE GEFS/EC MEANS AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EAST
COAST

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks. I have my moments. Let's hope I continue to have my moments through the first half of Feb.

 

It was a pretty sick snowfall for 20-30 minutes last night.

 

I still find it hilarious that this storm was being modeled and argued (friday storm) by mets to be a north / interior track.

 

 

Yeah, I don't recall anyone in this particular subforum thinking that.   I thought QVector' and wxwatcher91 were actually discussing the 26th as being the more favorable out of the 22nd vs - 

 

I started that thread on good faith for last night's system but it was predicated on the relaxation of the flow ... that, dun dun dunnn, never took place.  It's left me in a bit of consternation as to how we are going to get it done when the SPV fills, the EPO and NAO are neutralized, and we still end up with enough speed in the flow to move a trough from west of Minnesota to off the upper MA in one day flat.   That is the singular fluid dynamical reason why the phase takes all the way to S of NS before being meaningful.  

 

As it were, the flow is finally relaxing as that stupid beast lifts out, but the runs with progressivity as their middle names are holding onto that agenda at least excuse imaginable.   While those that try some semblance of equity are fighting against it - 

 

Basically, it's because progressivity, while often described in context of a bias, does in fact at times exist;  flows sometimes end up longitudinal in character.   One thing, the PNA at Climate Pred. Center is forecast to go to 0 or even slightly negative SD over the next week ... before [perhaps] resuming an impressive rise as we head into February (the latter looks mighty MJO rooted... )  Normally that should mean even money as far as the flow orientation over the Conus, but ... sufficed it is to say, it is not a positive PNA, so some flatness is acceptable.  

 

Or it could all just be a coincidence, sure.   

 

One last thing, fwiw - the entire governing package of dynamics is all out over the Pacific O right now.  Assimilation has come a long way, but still ...even in this day and age, once in a while we see eastern N/A system morphology increase upon sampling in the denser grid over land, once a system is finally relayed from off the Pacific.  IF a stronger Pac/intermediate impulse is injected into the flow, it will definitely cause more latitudinal exertion on the field, and that might be the ticket in getting more N stream caught up in the gravity well.   

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro Ens east from 00z... no surprise there. More amped than 12z GEFS mean.

 

A touch less amped than 12z operational but close.

 

At this juncture, I would take.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, I don't recall anyone in this particular subforum thinking that.   I thought QVector' and wxwatcher91 were actually discussing the 26th as being the more favorable out of the 22nd vs - 

 

I started that thread on good faith for last night's system but it was predicated on the relaxation of the flow ... that, dun dun dunnn, never took place.  It's left me in a bit of consternation as to how we are going to get it done when the SPV fills, the EPO and NAO are neutralized, and we still end up with enough speed in the flow to move a trough from west of Minnesota to off the upper MA in one day flat.   That is the singular fluid dynamical reason why the phase takes all the way to S of NS before being meaningful.  

 

As it were, the flow is finally relaxing as that stupid beast lifts out, but the runs with progressivity as their middle names are holding onto that agenda at least excuse imaginable.   While those that try some semblance of equity are fighting against it - 

 

Basically, it's because progressivity, while often described in context of a bias, does in fact at times exist;  flows sometimes end up longitudinal in character.   One thing, the PNA at Climate Pred. Center is forecast to go to 0 or even slightly negative SD over the next week ... before [perhaps] resuming an impressive rise as we head into February (the latter looks mighty MJO rooted... )  Normally that should mean even money as far as the flow orientation over the Conus, but ... sufficed it is to say, it is not a positive PNA, so some flatness is acceptable.  

 

Or it could all just be a coincidence, sure.   

 

One last thing, fwiw - the entire governing package of dynamics is all out over the Pacific O right now.  Assimilation has come a long way, but still ...even in this day and age, once in a while we see eastern N/A system morphology increase upon sampling in the denser grid over land, once a system is finally relayed from off the Pacific.  IF a stronger Pac/intermediate impulse is injected into the flow, it will definitely cause more latitudinal exertion on the field, and that might be the ticket in getting more N stream caught up in the gravity well.   

[Clinch Leatherwood]

 

We toss

 

18z NAM is totally different on the west coast at 42 hours...not even close to the old solution. 

[dryslot]

We toss

 

 

We will know more once it crosses the rockies

[ineedsnow]

better sampling or worse? thats a huge difference 

We toss

 

18z NAM is totally different on the west coast at 42 hours...not even close to the old solution. 

[dryslot]

better sampling or worse? thats a huge difference 

 

 

Won't matter its the Nam and it will be wrong no matter what it has

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Won't matter its the Nam and it will be wrong no matter what it has

 

Yeah it's just kind of funny to see that s/w down deep in California.

 

but

 

"HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS QUESTIONABLE EARLY ACROSS THE WEST

COAST ON WED IN BREAKING OFF A PIECE OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE

TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND MERGING IT INTO THE SERN PACIFIC CLOSED

CLOSED LOW."

[SR Airglow]

Right now, opinion is toss everything, it all seems to vary so much from run to run, this combined with the record that the models have this winter and I;m not even going to try to make some sort of a call until stuff starts to come together. Toss everything from 12z, toss everything coming up at 18z, look at trends at 0z, toss everything coming up at 6z, and tomorrow at 12z we should have a better idea of the picture one way or another. Not saying that the 12z EURO/GFS solution is impossible, in fact I think it's more likely than the 00z KU on the EURO, but it's just too up in the air right now to even think about making a forecast/prediction.

 

Enjoy the model mayhem and see you at 12z tomorrow!

 

-skisheep

[ineedsnow]

seems like the nam is trying to do just that

Yeah it's just kind of funny to see that s/w down deep in California.

 

but

 

"HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS QUESTIONABLE EARLY ACROSS THE WEST
COAST ON WED IN BREAKING OFF A PIECE OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND MERGING IT INTO THE SERN PACIFIC CLOSED
CLOSED LOW."

[CoastalWx]

This could be an ern mass deal with how the low blows up and turns north.

[FSUIZZY]

The Motto of this forum this Winter is "We TOSS!" and the Mascot is

[Clinch Leatherwood]

seems like the nam is trying to do just that

 

It's the NAM...but it's kind of funny.  It's weaker than the 12z at 60-66 hours for sure.  Hopefully it does the Euro left hook towards the end, or manages to pull it all together UK style.

 

I haven't looked to see what extent the Euro does the energy drop like NCEP talked about, to be honest at this range I don't care.  But kind of curious the NAM follows it right after.

[powderfreak]

This could be an ern mass deal with how the low blows up and turns north.

It's been that type of pattern...one of these has to hit that area and work out.

[dryslot]

Not boring

[CoastalWx]

It's been that type of pattern...one of these has to hit that area and work out.

Well it's already caused Nantucket to beat me in the seasonal total lol. But it's good to see them getting snow. They kind of got hosed even in '10/'11 when we got buried. In a way, this pattern reminds me of the 80s.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The Motto of this forum this Winter is "We TOSS!" and the Mascot is

 

18z NAM says "we whiff"

 

 

Hybrid solution of the other models, not exciting.  A disjointed piece of heartbreak.  Maybe good for Phil and Ack.  Those guys have to be the favorite right now in my book, but we'll see.  It's trying the last minute hook of the Euro.

[cycloneslurry]

It's been that type of pattern...one of these has to hit that area and work out.

when you say Eastern MA are we talking Boston and Metro west area our Cape and Islands.  Cause the argument could be made that the last two events have really worked out well for the cape and islands as they now have more seasonal snow than the 128 corridor.

[FSUIZZY]

18z NAM says "we whiff"

 

 

Hybrid solution of the other models, not exciting.

"We Whiff" is the nickname of the models when it gets close to go time. Earlier in the winter it was "Torch"

[CoastalWx]

when you say Eastern MA are we talking Boston and Metro west area our Cape and Islands. Cause the argument could be made that the last two events have really worked out well for the cape and islands as they now have more seasonal snow than the 128 corridor.

Well could be Cape Cod. Weenies relax, I just said "could be."

[CoastalWx]

How about "we weenies" and " we insane". Those are fitting lately.

[weatherMA]

Is that true?

Sorry I was out for a few hours. I believe it is, but don't have official totals or anything. BOS has 7.4".

 

ACK had 4" on Friday morning, and multiple reports of 6+ there last night, so that alone puts them at 10". Pretty said...everyone in all directions of BOS is beating them ...again. Although 7.4" isn't accurate as you have what, 14"? And Scott had like 10-11"?

[Damage In Tolland]

It's high time everyone stays the course. I can't believe some of the things we are seeing posted today

[FSUIZZY]

How about "we weenies" and " we insane". Those are fitting lately.

This is true but "weenies" is every year with every storm

[CT Rain]

It's high time everyone stays the course. I can't believe some of the things we are seeing posted today

 

Yeah disappointing turn of events for us here in CT

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yup.

[PWMan]

Maybe it's just the hangover from last night's Lucy-football job, but I am just not feeling it on this one.

[CoastalWx]

Sorry I was out for a few hours. I believe it is, but don't have official totals or anything. BOS has 7.4".

ACK had 4" on Friday morning, and multiple reports of 6+ there last night, so that alone puts them at 10". Pretty said...everyone in all directions of BOS is beating them ...again. Although 7.4" isn't accurate as you have what, 14"? And Scott had like 10-11"?

Yeah in a hole, but plenty of time to make up.