North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think its good for DC either. Not at all. Not even a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You didn't send me 5 inches? I said 5" was a reasonable expectation. If it's more I'll be happy and less I'll be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That lead s/w needs to slow down or the northern s/w needs to speed up if we want anything bigger. So close either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 so you're saying this storm is going to whiff Tolland, CT because of global warming.lol, ot but man is the Nhemi cold. Watching and waiting, interesting weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 let's get than warm-up out of here next week. hopefully that's not too long. decent signal for at least a day or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The way things have gone the last few years in Boston, this isn't surprising at all. Hopefully the trends reverse themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Congrats DC. lol Sorry Randy This hobby f*$$^* sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How much QPF did the 12z Euro give areas of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That lead s/w needs to slow down or the northern s/w needs to speed up if we want anything bigger. So close either way.we should have separate threads for each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not at all. Not even a little. It's better than where I'll be. And besides, we have much lower expectations than you guys, so it's meh, but not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 so you're saying this storm is going to whiff Tolland, CT because of global warming. Yep ... global warming. no, i'm saying too much ambient gradient may cause this to miss, or be less than it could be; I merely offer a supposition why the gradient is there. It's funny though, the SPV weakens and fills by a good amount, yet the flow doesn't slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Now what's the rule when the Ukie and the JMA agree again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I just saw the run...I didn't think it was that bad? I didn't expect a KU solution again. The PAC energy looks weaker on the 12z suite...my guess is it will come back some on the 00z suite. Most of our systems this year have not trended weaker with vortmax strength once inside of 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The way things have gone the last few years in Boston, this isn't surprising at all. Hopefully the trends reverse themselves. We're not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That would make for a nice weenie slap, Whiff this one and cutter on the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Dry begets dry? Simple statement but often seems that way doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Is it safe to come out now? had to seek shelter as I watched the euro come out..Anyway, it doesnt suprise me. Will was leading the way here saying last night's euro run was likely best case scenario and worse solutions were bound to occur. plenty of time still and I like the moderate snowstorm idea. Remember ratios are on our side so it wont take much qpf... Remember the euro had a rogue bomb run like last night's 00z in the days prior to the 12/29 event before backing down..but that one turned out pretty well for you guys in the end. I agree with you that the ECMWF last night looked like a toned down version of this system. Interestingly, that was also a time of MJO looping in mid to late Jan. Yeah the upcoming week in general is sharing some striking similarities to that of late jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 we should have separate threads for each Should be pinned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Need to add to my snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the models are seeing more of the exiting PV's influence and are losing the core of the PAC s/w. As Will suggested, I suspect this trends stronger as we get closer and this comes back NW. E NJ to E MA zone could end doing well again with this one while I watch 30 miles to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even in a good hit I doubt were talking major. Not like there is slow enough track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Is it safe to come out now? had to seek shelter as I watched the euro come out..Anyway, it doesnt suprise me. Will was leading the way here saying last night's euro run was likely best case scenario and worse solutions were bound to occur. plenty of time still and I like the moderate snowstorm idea. Remember ratios are on our side so it wont take much qpf... Remember the euro had a rogue bomb run like last night's 00z in the days prior to the 12/29 event before backing down..but that one turned out pretty well for you guys in the end. Yeah the upcoming week in general is sharing some striking similarities to that of late jan 2005. Id hit Dec 29 from all directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 so you're saying this storm is going to whiff Tolland, CT because of global warming. LOL we should have separate threads for each haha That would make for a nice weenie slap, Whiff this one and cutter on the next one What's the analog year for that? --- Latest diagnostic pre Euro which will likely change some of this shortly. NCEP says we toss (ukmet). The bottom portion is kind of key, I don't think we have to worry about a miss miss. THE 12Z CMC HAS CONTINUED THE WEAKER TREND SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 12Z UKMET HAS SHOWN SUBTLE TRENDS BUT REMAINS THE STRONGEST OF THE GUIDANCE OUT PAST THE PLAINS WHICH DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST. WHILE THE 12Z UKMET/CMC ARE STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE MISS RIVER...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING FULL ON TOWARD THE WEAKER NCEP GUIDANCE...AND WILL PREFER A 12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH AGREEMENT BY THE GEFS/EC MEANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even in a good hit I doubt were talking major. Not like there is slow enough track LOL, last nights Euro was a major and the track was not slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Remember the euro had a rogue bomb run like last night's 00z in the days prior to the 12/29 event before backing down..but that one turned out pretty well for you guys in the end. Very true, I've been thinking about that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice to see all mets on board for a solid hit. Thank you for bringing reality back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LOL, last nights Euro was a major and the track was not slow. It did slow down some as it got captured on last night's solution. It was about an 18 hour storm. I don't expect a full capture like that though...probably going to be too tough to achieve, but certainly a quick hitting warning event is doable out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LOL, last nights Euro was a major and the track was not slow. Point is were going to see this come back nw and you'll see people start throwing out a foot plus, and I don't see anything that High besides a lolli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice to see all mets on board for a solid hit. Thank you for bringing reality back here I don't think anyone's saying that. We have the chance for a good hit but it could easily whiff. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think anyone's saying that. We have the chance for a good hit but it could easily whiff. We'll see. I don't see anyone saying anything about a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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