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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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Congrats Saki

 

If I had to forecast right now it wouldn't be for any more than I did last night.  Plenty of time left, but we have pretty good consensus across the GEFS/GFS, OP Euro (ens soon?), GGEM and even the NOGAPS,   we toss...lol.

 

 

Hopefully we see a shift in the other direction commence now that all models seem to be in fair agreement.

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Geezus what a disaster thread.

 

Seriously. I haven't had much time, and honestly haven't paid as much attention as I would if I was back in NH ... but I just logged on in the last 20 minutes, and the vomit of posts that projectiled into this thread was pathetic. What's happened here?

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Seriously. I haven't had much time, and honestly haven't paid as much attention as I would if I was back in NH ... but I just logged on in the last 20 minutes, and the vomit of posts that projectiled into this thread was pathetic. What's happened here?

I'm not seeing the excessive bridge jumping you are. Weenies will be weenies though. I'm still feeling good about this system.
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We go through this with every system. First, what are the conditions in play favoring one solution or the other. Second, what are the issues favoring flat vs amped. Third, at 90 hours, what is the best guess.

Best guess is what Ryan texted me earlier and what Powderfreak laid out. 4-8 for all of SNE. Combo of blending all models and applying some meteorology gives you that. With the caveat amounts increase if it phases earlier
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absolutely correct that the flow is too fast - 24 hours the surface cyclone moves from MN to SE of the BM!   The 500mb at 72 hours shows that the streams "could" phase,  but the southern component of the westerlies is so fast it just rips out ahead and detonates what looks like an NJ Model low...  Meanwhile, the N stream dynamics are struggling to catch-up. 

 

In more so than not ways this run is a partial collapse toward the GFS uber progressivity.   Hate to say ... Will it verify?  Probably not.. if the run can vary this much between 00z and 12z then the old rules about continuity must be applied. 

 

But, that said...it seems we are in a weird sort of speed bias in the atmosphere.  Hypothetically, this could be what happens when we stick a cold polar cycle into a background GW - there is so much gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels that the flow ends up with two speeds:  Too fast , and a little bit faster.   

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absolutely correct that the flow is too fast - 24 hours the surface cyclone moves from MN to SE of the BM!   The 500mb at 72 hours shows that the streams "could" phase,  but the southern component of the westerlies is so fast it just rips out ahead and detonates what looks like an NJ Model low...  Meanwhile, the N stream dynamics are struggling to catch-up. 

 

In more so than not ways this run is a partial collapse toward the GFS uber progressivity.   Hate to say ... Will it verify?  Probably not.. if the run can vary this much between 00z and 12z then the old rules about continuity must be applied. 

 

But, that said...it seems were are in a weird sort of speed bias in the atmosphere.  Hypothetically, this could be what happens when we stick a cold polar cycle into a background GW - there is so much gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels that the flow ends up with two speeds:  Too fast , and a little bit faster.   

so you're saying this storm is going to whiff Tolland, CT because of global warming. 

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Best guess is what Ryan texted me earlier and what Powderfreak laid out. 4-8 for all of SNE. Combo of blending all models and applying some meteorology gives you that. With the caveat amounts increase if it phases earlier

 

LOL I did?

 

I can certainly see this coming north but right now things don't look awesome. 

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