TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It shows a snowstorm, it's just eastern and southeastern areas. It's not one of those goofy norlun deals either, it's a legit storm. I really like where Phil and Ackwaves are, great week for both of them. ACK has more snow then BOS on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Last minute turn north.Congrats Saki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not a pleasant trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Good thing I kept my rope and chair close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LOL this thread is filled with the weeniest bridge jumpers right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not a pleasant trend. Lot of moving parts with this one. Keep expectations ins check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought it did not look to bad, It got going later this run so it was a little more SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ACK has more snow then BOS on the season. Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 can probably lock that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Congrats Saki If I had to forecast right now it wouldn't be for any more than I did last night. Plenty of time left, but we have pretty good consensus across the GEFS/GFS, OP Euro (ens soon?), GGEM and even the NOGAPS, we toss...lol. Hopefully we see a shift in the other direction commence now that all models seem to be in fair agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 its Tuesday not Thursday. took half a day to go from foot to foot though wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Geezus what a disaster thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Geezus what a disaster thread. We toss? Ginxy what are your thoughts on this next event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 its Tuesday not Thursday. took half a day to go from foot to foot though wall.Have you even looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Have you even looked? Like i said, It did not look that bad, Its a matter of how soon or late if at all we get the two streams to interact with a phase for an end result for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We toss? Ginxy what are your thoughts on this next event? nice setup, could produce, more time to check out, Thursday noon we will know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At this range there will be another jostle in scenarios don't panic yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Geezus what a disaster thread. Seriously. I haven't had much time, and honestly haven't paid as much attention as I would if I was back in NH ... but I just logged on in the last 20 minutes, and the vomit of posts that projectiled into this thread was pathetic. What's happened here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Have you even looked? I wasn't talking about the next one. My point was trends go both ways, no need for bridge jumping just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's very close to being a decent storm for a good chunk of the region. fast flow will probably limit this (unless the energy coming south is being very poorly modeled right now) from being a monster but too early to jump on any particular track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We go through this with every system. First, what are the conditions in play favoring one solution or the other. Second, what are the issues favoring flat vs amped. Third, at 90 hours, what is the best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wasn't talking about the next one. My point was trends go both ways, no need for bridge jumping just yet.yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Seriously. I haven't had much time, and honestly haven't paid as much attention as I would if I was back in NH ... but I just logged on in the last 20 minutes, and the vomit of posts that projectiled into this thread was pathetic. What's happened here?I'm not seeing the excessive bridge jumping you are. Weenies will be weenies though. I'm still feeling good about this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We go through this with every system. First, what are the conditions in play favoring one solution or the other. Second, what are the issues favoring flat vs amped. Third, at 90 hours, what is the best guess.Best guess is what Ryan texted me earlier and what Powderfreak laid out. 4-8 for all of SNE. Combo of blending all models and applying some meteorology gives you that. With the caveat amounts increase if it phases earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 absolutely correct that the flow is too fast - 24 hours the surface cyclone moves from MN to SE of the BM! The 500mb at 72 hours shows that the streams "could" phase, but the southern component of the westerlies is so fast it just rips out ahead and detonates what looks like an NJ Model low... Meanwhile, the N stream dynamics are struggling to catch-up. In more so than not ways this run is a partial collapse toward the GFS uber progressivity. Hate to say ... Will it verify? Probably not.. if the run can vary this much between 00z and 12z then the old rules about continuity must be applied. But, that said...it seems we are in a weird sort of speed bias in the atmosphere. Hypothetically, this could be what happens when we stick a cold polar cycle into a background GW - there is so much gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels that the flow ends up with two speeds: Too fast , and a little bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 absolutely correct that the flow is too fast - 24 hours the surface cyclone moves from MN to SE of the BM! The 500mb at 72 hours shows that the streams "could" phase, but the southern component of the westerlies is so fast it just rips out ahead and detonates what looks like an NJ Model low... Meanwhile, the N stream dynamics are struggling to catch-up. In more so than not ways this run is a partial collapse toward the GFS uber progressivity. Hate to say ... Will it verify? Probably not.. if the run can vary this much between 00z and 12z then the old rules about continuity must be applied. But, that said...it seems were are in a weird sort of speed bias in the atmosphere. Hypothetically, this could be what happens when we stick a cold polar cycle into a background GW - there is so much gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels that the flow ends up with two speeds: Too fast , and a little bit faster. so you're saying this storm is going to whiff Tolland, CT because of global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Dry begets dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Best guess is what Ryan texted me earlier and what Powderfreak laid out. 4-8 for all of SNE. Combo of blending all models and applying some meteorology gives you that. With the caveat amounts increase if it phases earlier LOL I did? I can certainly see this coming north but right now things don't look awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LOL I did? I can certainly see this coming north but right now things don't look awesome. You didn't send me 5 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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