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January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

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Here you go Ray ... courtesy of our own KTAN.  At first glance it appears as though I am full of s*t.  But if find that band of 7, 8 and 9" totals in NE CT as possibly telling that indeed there were some bands in there that were doinking people.  Acton situates in the void up there in interior eastern Mass.  

 

snowstormJan2224-2005.plt.png

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Yeah, it just misses the phase by New England. Very similar to the 00z run with SLP placement. At 5h it looks better imo.

You can tell those that are pushing suppression, but I'll argue this.....are we not tired of everything warm and close to the coast this winter? Heck a 3-6 deal is a win for me. A good vortmax over these warmer than normal waters will do wonders. Maybe a gulf stream miracle.

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Well, i would hope you lend me a little more credit than that, but meteorologically speaking it was pretty darn similar on last night's euro run, albeit probably toned down a bit from that 05 storm.
 

 

Oh, I do, but what I mean is, is that a machine derived analog, such as that provided by NCEP, or is that the human.   

 

I suppose it doesn't make much difference, but sometimes you got to admit - people can rip and read stuff and draw up their own headlines.   

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Well, i would hope you lend me a little more credit than that, but meteorologically speaking it was pretty darn similar on last night's euro run, albeit probably toned down a bit from that 05 storm.
 

 

I agree with you that the ECMWF last night looked like a toned down version of this system. Interestingly, that was also a time of MJO looping in mid to late Jan. :)

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He's less annoying and isn't a weenie so he'll get faster service.

 

All the snow is clearly getting to people.

You can tell those that are pushing suppression, but I'll argue this.....are we not tired of everything warm and close to the coast this winter? Heck a 3-6 deal is a win for me. A good vortmax over these warmer than normal waters will do wonders. Maybe a gulf stream miracle.

I'm not pushing anything, especially not piles of forecasted snow. I'll stay conservative as I think there's adequate reasons to favor a flatter pattern right now but agree these few inch events are better than nothing. I've had almost 3" this week and Ackwaves is getting it pretty good.

 

---

 

 

 

this seems reasonable for now until the 12z euro tosses the knuckler

 

...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING OUT INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON

THURS...

...SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST THURS/FRI...

...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THURS/FRI...

PREFERENCE:  12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF BLEND

CONFIDENCE:  BELOW AVERAGE

THE NAM HAS TRENDED DEEPER/SLOWER WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE

AND SFC LOW TO IMPACT THE UPR MISS VALLEY BUT REMAINS ON THE

FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH ITS SPEED ONLY SUPPORTED BY THE

00Z CMC. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE NRN

STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHING THE PLAINS LATE THU. THERE IS

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE

NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN SOME DEGREE OF WEAKENING WITH THE NRN

STREAM SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF

THE MISS RIVER AND LESS EMPHASIS ON THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW MOVING

ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY ON FRI.

WHILE THE 00Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR TOO AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH

AS IT CROSSES THE MISS RIVER...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING FULL

ON TOWARD THE WEAKER NCEP GUIDANCE...AND WILL PREFER A 12Z GFS /

00Z ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH AGREEMENT BY

THE GEFS/EC MEANS.

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Not a weenie? He won WOTY. Why you don't check pm from your phone is beyond us. Your email directly links you to the Pm

It's a pain with 3g and typing with the iphone. I don't have my email setup either. I would think Mr Technology could get his wx station online by now though.
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You can tell those that are pushing suppression, but I'll argue this.....are we not tired of everything warm and close to the coast this winter? Heck a 3-6 deal is a win for me. A good vortmax over these warmer than normal waters will do wonders. Maybe a gulf stream miracle.

 

I would like a nice 4-8" type deal as well.  Something to break the streak.  I'm not in the suppression/ or inland camp either but I can't buy the Euro just yet either.  Having this antecedent airmass ahead of this will be refreshing (no pun) for once.  I think this leading s/w is critical in that it shoves the comfluence S enough.  Now we just need to watch the 2 s/w's coming out of Canada.

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I would like a nice 4-8" type deal as well. Something to break the streak. I'm not in the suppression/ or inland camp either but I can't buy the Euro just yet either. Having this antecedent airmass ahead of this will be refreshing (no pun) for once. I think this leading s/w is critical in that it shoves the comfluence S enough. Now we just need to watch the 2 s/w's coming out of Canada.

I'm not sold on the euro at all either....but I don't think we should be Pushing the cirrus smoking camp 4 days out.

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