powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know...suppresion just isn't a huge worry to me. I wouldn't be worried either in your situation. Plus if it ends up being suppressed, no one gets much snow. After the past two winters I'd be more worried about something that gets too amped and brings more interior snow and coastal issues. I still see no reason to deviate from 4-8" of WAA snows in SNE. I've been on the same page as what RadarMan just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GFS mean still offshore but looks better than it did yesterday. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah I'm actually liking where most of the region sits right now. There's definite room for northern solutions. Suppression definitely cannot be ruled out, but I'm not really that concerned about it right now. Trying to get storms to come north seems a lot easier these days then trying to get them to go south, so you have a good point in that. If this was tracking over ALB right now, it would be a lot harder to get it to trend to the coast for whatever reason. But seems no problem for quick trends NW for the models these days. Plus if its suppressed, at least no one gets a rainstorm like a week ago when it looked like this would go into the Great Lakes. Getting whiffed is preferable to raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Randy need to ride the Ukie for Caroga Lake. Crazy Brit GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 96 hour GEFS hard linked for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 There hasn't been a good hit from a coastal storm in the CD area of ENY since about early March 2011. I mean a major hit....modest stuff yeah. Trying to get storms to come north seems a lot easier these days then trying to get them to go south, so you have a good point in that. If this was tracking over ALB right now, it would be a lot harder to get it to trend to the coast for whatever reason. But seems no problem for quick trends NW for the models these days. Plus if its suppressed, at least no one gets a rainstorm like a week ago when it looked like this would go into the Great Lakes. Getting whiffed is preferable to raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ORH or anyone, since we dont have an 84 SLP panel for the 12z UKIE... any ideas on how it gets from C AR at 72 to its 96 hr position? Miller B redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know...suppresion just isn't a huge worry to me. It should be because it's no longer there ... It's what doomed last night's deal, but the alleviation for the SPV filling and pulling out is well underway and almost completely abandoned by then. Not to come off heavy handed, but what's going on with this system is that the GFS has an on-going progressivity bias, which is noted by NCEP on multiple occasions/research-able in their performance logging. Which if it is that obvious, why can't they fix it? But that's another discussion... Anyway, the GFS is moving the entire trough structure so rapidly through the medium that the "phasing" in the same panache as the 00z Euro cannot possibly take place - trough translation ends up in a non-harmonious frequency (so to speak...) Just means there's no time for the stream interaction to get underway. What I find disconcerting is that the 00z NOGAPS was very similar to the Euro, and the NOGAPS progressivity bias is actually more than the GFS as an on-going correction. NOGAPS in bed with the Euro? wow - talk about opposites attracting (maybe there's hope for me yet...) For what it is not worth (which is a lot of not), the 60-84 hour NAM from 12z is flat and fast and furiously devoted to disappointing the SNE stat. It takes a cyclone off the Del Marv and extrapolates a track so far SE that only lightish action tickles the area. But eh... means nothing from that source. Anyway, the 00z NOGAPS solution was a greater than median hit, but teeters with being an absolute monster with that subsume scenario it has. And the Euro's similarity, notwithstanding. The 12z GFS just refuses to see that trough translation as any slower, and still consequently has almost nil stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This isn't a suppression pattern, let's clarify. We have no huge block to force this south. If this were to be well south, it's due to the progressive nature of the pattern not allowing amplification. Therefore the term flat would suffice, not suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gotta admit i was excited when i checked the euro this morning and saw jan 2005 redux staring me in the face...but will keep excitement in check for now...liked that the ensembles agreed somewhat, at least to the tune of a moderate snowfall which seems more realistic Is that an actual analog, or is that just the Zeitgeist of the day being bandied about and therefore taken as truth - I hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 96 hour GEFS hard linked for reference. I bet there are a couple euro-esque members in there. Looks more amped than op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oh god - please don't ... I lived in Acton Mass at the time, which is midland Middlesex County, and got s*t from the storm. We wound up in some kind of negative node of a gravity wave, and at times were down to flurries. During the max 4-6 hours of the event, that banded bf'ing sat right over us from ~ N Chelmsford to N Marlborough. As the storm pulled away the deformation band that was NW of us (FIT-MHT or thereabouts) collapsed through and we went to 1/4 vis for all of about 1.5 to 2 hours, and that is when the majority of our 5 or 6 inches came from. If memory serves we had perhaps 2-3 on the front end, so no, not a total lost in total. But annoyingly under-performed and rather pedestrian in that band. People have really selective memories about the grandeur of that event because of their own back yards. Despite what it did for S-SE of me, it was not the storm of the ilk people thinking because of those screw zones. The "real" non-fraudulent beasts of yore get everyone - which is why Dec 1992 is kind of a fraud too. Where it snowed, granted, it was over the top and historical; but it was criminal where it didn't - torture. Eh, Dec 1992 would have been snowed more uniform/equally if the column was just a tick colder going in, so probably that one is an exception. I was trying to find that analog page from NCEP but Google keep directing to a D6 -10 analog, which I am not sure is the same product. I thought you could enter specific dates, interactively, and pull the analogs, but I may be imagining that. You only had 5-6" in Acton?Wow....I had 25" here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Is that an actual analog, or is that just the Zeitgeist of the day being bandied about and therefore taken as truth - I hate that. It was very similar in evolution to Jan 2005 on the 00z Euro...not a perfect match, but pretty close. I'm sure it will end up different by verification, but there's certainly some potential for a larger scale system should the northern energy phase in with the main s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Sometimes you get the creepy paranoia that there is a conspiracy out there to run GFS runs surgically developed for disappointing winter storm enthusiast. haha. Just kidding but really? The GFS take Friday's system harmlessly south, and then throws a fire ball up the eastern seaboard less than a week later as though on purpose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I bet there are a couple euro-esque members in there. Looks more amped than op It's not terribly different than the 6z from what I can tell with the time adjust. .1" line give or take is around the same, so if there were amped members there... Tip does raise a good point about the GFS..and the GGEM having a progressive bias, so let's see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You only had 5-6" in Acton? Wow....I had 25" here.... IIRC I had double digits in MHT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You only had 5-6" in Acton? Wow....I had 25" here.... well, no - I'm "pretty" sure we had 2 or 3" on the front end before the meso banding started shredding things. I think it was around 9 total - I'm going to look that up... It makes sense that you were prolific out that way if I recall the rad images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 IIRC I had double digits in MHT too. Hey Bri, you get my PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Sometimes you get the creepy paranoia that there is a conspiracy out there to run GFS runs surgically developed for disappointing winter storm enthusiast. haha. Just kidding but really? The GFS take Friday's system harmlessly south, and then throws a fire ball up the eastern seaboard less than a week later as though on purpose... Not for nothing but that's sort of similar to what the flat one looks like now as of about that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Every time a storm is forecast to cut west into the lakes on the medium range models this winter, it verifies. I keep hoping we'll get enough negative NAO with one of these forecast cutters to get a snow to ice situation. But so far every "reload" features an all out torch. So I guess we need to hope this week can deliver so we'll have to snow pack to lose next week. Sometimes you get the creepy paranoia that there is a conspiracy out there to run GFS runs surgically developed for disappointing winter storm enthusiast. haha. Just kidding but really? The GFS take Friday's system harmlessly south, and then throws a fire ball up the eastern seaboard less than a week later as though on purpose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GAPS is out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_12z/f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GAPS is out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_12z/f96.gif 0z same time for comparison http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_0z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GAPS is out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_12z/f96.gif That's a great h7 look over us. I'd tap it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Because your sarcasm meter is busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey Bri, you get my PM?Not yet. I'm on my phone. I'll check them when I get home from work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey Bri, you get my PM?He'll get back to you within a month. That's his turnaround time for answering PM's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Is that an actual analog, or is that just the Zeitgeist of the day being bandied about and therefore taken as truth - I hate that. Well, i would hope you lend me a little more credit than that, but meteorologically speaking it was pretty darn similar on last night's euro run, albeit probably toned down a bit from that 05 storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0122.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, i would hope you lend me a little more credit than that, but meteorologically speaking it was pretty darn similar on last night's euro run, albeit probably toned down a bit from that 05 storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0122.php LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That's a great h7 look over us. I'd tap it. Yeah, it just misses the phase by New England. Very similar to the 00z run with SLP placement. At 5h it looks better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 He'll get back to you within a month. That's his turnaround time for answering PM'sHe's less annoying and isn't a weenie so he'll get faster service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.