CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Every coastal there's always a few GFS op runs that have a total miss and all it does is cause panic and confusion in the community. It always comes back and then we go thru it again with the next one Well that isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What would you say the chance of a total miss is? a *total* miss - i'd say the chances are low...like 10-20%. but a total miss is not the same as widespread hvy hvy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What did the Jan 05 storm bring to SNE? I wasn't here for it... it was pretty run of the mill lol Enjoy http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005.plt.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005.grd.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 C'mon guys, 4 days out. Don't even worry about details as so much can happen. Have the last two storms taught you anything? That it never snows in Boston anymore? That I am glad to be born in the 1960s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 a *total* miss - i'd say the chances are low...like 10-20%. but a total miss is not the same as widespread hvy hvy snow do you think toronto might get some snow out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 do you think toronto might get some snow out of this? What did the euro ensembles show? Scott? Scott I asked you 2 minutes ago, what did they show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it was pretty run of the mill whatttt? Widespread 20+ inches is run of the mill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No matter what, Harwinton CT jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 calling for anything other than a chance for some snow is dumb. Yep. All options still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this run is going to be even worse then 6z I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No matter what, Harwinton CT jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 whatttt? Widespread 20+ inches is run of the mill? Actually 30"+ for some. He was joking about run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 whatttt? Widespread 20+ inches is run of the mill? http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/sarcasm?s=t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No matter what, Harwinton CT jackpot. I don't exactly know how anyone took what I said last night as Harwinton "Jackpotting". I said we might get more back at home than at school in Tolland Cty, and I was almost right. People need to learn to read, it's elementary. Also sorry you have snow jealousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this run is going to be even worse then 6z I think Depends on your perspective. If you lived in the mid Atlantic it looks better. Favor the fast moving suppressed lows and ignore the random more robust signal until we get inside or 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What did the Jan 05 storm bring to SNE? I wasn't here for it... remarkable storm for the eastern half of sne, for the western half it was slightly more than pedestrian and forecasted accums busted in a big way west of the river, amounts hartford to springfield to even northampton were predicted to be 18 to 30 inches and in general 8 to 12 inches fell with by far most of it occuring from the clipper part of the system once the coastal bombed out all the good stuff was east and south of the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I heard that there was a Winter Storm recon flight. If so, which model run will have the extra data, 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GFS looks night and day with the handling of the northern s/w in Canada vs 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Trough a little sharper this run, Still won't get it done but its slightly better then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No matter what, Harwinton CT jackpot. Thank God for the Gulf Stream to save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GFS looks night and day with the handling of the northern s/w in Canada vs 06z run. Yes if there is something positive to take away from the run is that it comes much closer to phasing in that energy from Canada than 06z did. Still doesn't do it in time to keep us from getting the 06z flizzard...but that is a step toward the Euro in handling the northern energy. The s/w that comes off the PAC is a bit weaker though, so that probably offset it to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yes if there is something positive to take away from the run is that it comes much closer to phasing in that energy from Canada than 06z did. Still doesn't do it in time to keep us from getting the 06z flizzard...but that is a step toward the Euro in handling the northern energy. The s/w that comes off the PAC is a bit weaker though, so that probably offset it to a degree. That's all I took from that run. Looked better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So anyone want to guess what kind of obscene nuke Crazy Uncle is going to show based on this 72h panel? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol Enjoy http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005.plt.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005.grd.png God I love that storm, was a soph. in high school with my parents in Florida, weenie wonderland. Think I measured something around 35-38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 thats sweet!!! So anyone want to guess what kind of obscene nuke Crazy Uncle is going to show based on this 72h panel? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So anyone want to guess what kind of obscene nuke Crazy Uncle is going to show based on this 72h panel? lol Suppression is the only option with this one. Flow too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So anyone want to guess what kind of obscene nuke Crazy Uncle is going to show based on this 72h panel? lol Congrats albany.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So anyone want to guess what kind of obscene nuke Crazy Uncle is going to show based on this 72h panel? lol Didn't the uk crunch is with this last one for a few runs too? Asking because I never looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So anyone want to guess what kind of obscene nuke Crazy Uncle is going to show based on this 72h panel? lol Hope it doesn't run up to BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 does anyone up there believe in the Euro solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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