stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What are you, some sort of ebony Lorax? Negrax? No, that doesn't work. I just want it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I know, the euro still gave you several inches. With all the models in disagreement, I don't think we'll know until tomorrow aftn at the earliest. Ok. Check's in the mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not really worried about a repeat of 1/2005. Going to be honest. I think the Euro folds flatter today. Had a hicuup run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the flow is eerily similar to '05 - neat to see. range of solutions though is probably ALB to DC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the wednesday vort lob trending stronger dragging the arctic boundary further south acting as some blocking has something to do with the more intially suppressed inland solutions but then intensifying bm type tracks the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I actually agree the GFS has been pretty decent this winter. Its had its troubles like any guidance does, but definitely better than the usual beating it takes from Kevin. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm talking for Caroga Lake Ask again at like 2 pm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not really worried about a repeat of 1/2005. Going to be honest. I think the Euro folds flatter today. Had a hicuup run or two. Didnt you say you'd reevaluate tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm not really worried about a repeat of 1/2005. Going to be honest. I think the Euro folds flatter today. Had a hicuup run or two. why would you be worried? worried would be one of the last words that would come to mind for me. that said, expecting a 1/75 - 1/100 year storm based on the patterns looking similar is obviously not a smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even a half inch of precip would verify warnings if snowgrowth is anything like last night. Must have been 16-1 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 nam is starting to look like its going to have the bomb I was joking so I removed the post...that was the ! at the end. The NAM's timing is off similar to the later GFS runs. It's a concern, but it's early. The pattern has been too many cooks in the kitchen with s/w's spinning through so fast. I'd say go with that idea, flatter system until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I was joking so I removed the post...that was the ! at the end. The NAM's timing is off similar to the later GFS runs. It's a concern, but it's early. The pattern has been too many cooks in the kitchen with s/w's spinning through so fast. I'd say go with that idea, flatter system until proven otherwise. Are you giving the 84h nam more credence than the Euro then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just hoping for a nice, solid 4-6" event, which I certainly think is possible. I am really interested in seeing how the timing works out between the GFS and Euro. Will one cave more to the other? Or do they meet nicely in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Didnt you say you'd reevaluate tonight? Larry Bird's not walking through that door. why would you be worried? worried would be one of the last words that would come to mind for me. that said, expecting a 1/75 - 1/100 year storm based on the patterns looking similar is obviously not a smart move. I like where you and Ackwaves sit for this one. Hey it beats the pattern of two weeks ago. You were the one that said it 7-10 days ago...cape cod pattern, and so far you've been proven correct and I think it continues. NOTE for those not around here I keep getting the shaft too so saying it's a cape cod pattern doesn't mean I get snow. Are you giving the 84h nam more credence than the Euro then? I give the 36-48 hour NAM more credence than last nights Euro which I think was too robust. When it's been on the extreme ends at this range lately it's wrong, either too flat or too robust. It's early those are just my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 why would you be worried? worried would be one of the last words that would come to mind for me. that said, expecting a 1/75 - 1/100 year storm based on the patterns looking similar is obviously not a smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This friggin thread is lol. 4 days out, so much time left. I still wouldn't even rule out a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If everyone's fave Gfs was showing a hit would folks be worried about a total miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This friggin thread is lol. 4 days out, so much time left. I still wouldn't even rule out a SWFE. If the Euro shows another big hit you think people will back off the edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This friggin thread is lol. 4 days out, so much time left. I still wouldn't even rule out a SWFE. Yeah seriously. There's an awful lot of wiggle room considering the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If everyone's fave Gfs was showing a hit would folks be worried about a total miss? If the Euro showed a whiff, then of course people would be worried. They probably would be worried about a whiff or taint or some other problem if both showed a hit. 96 hours out is a long ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If the Euro showed a whiff, then of course people would be worried. They probably would be worried about a whiff or taint or some other problem if both showed a hit. 96 hours out is a long ways.My point is if the GFS shows a hit today, will folks still be calling for cirrus canopies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 My point is if the GFS shows a hit today, will folks still be calling for cirrus canopies? calling for anything other than a chance for some snow is dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 calling for anything other than a chance for some snow is dumb.What would you say the chance of a total miss is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 My point is if the GFS shows a hit today, will folks still be calling for cirrus canopies? Well you'll know soon I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We go thru this crap with every storm it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What did the Jan 05 storm bring to SNE? I wasn't here for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it was pretty run of the mill What did the Jan 05 storm bring to SNE? I wasn't here for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We go thru this crap with every storm it seemsEvery coastal there's always a few GFS op runs that have a total miss and all it does is cause panic and confusion in the community. It always comes back and then we go thru it again with the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 C'mon guys, 4 days out. Don't even worry about details as so much can happen. Have the last two storms taught you anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 OKX going with snow likely Friday into Friday night with "moderate accumulation possible" NYC and south and light accumulations Westchester/Connecticut zones, so I guess they're feeling confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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