CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What am I paying you for?!? Well it might not be anything huge down in DC. I'm mobile so I'll look harder when I get back...I still think you'll get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think I'd still like to see the GFS come on board for at least .4" across the region before we start suggesting anything in the vicinity of a warning-criteria event. I feel the same way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What a frigid airmass this will be preceding this potential. Below zero to single digits the night before and highs in the teens and twenty's the day of. 850's look do be -10 to -15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Why Let me make sure I'm understanding your question: I'd like for one of the more consistent models this winter to show a fraction of the total QPF that would likely translate to warning criteria (since it currently barely shows much at all) in order to line up with those members of guidance suggesting more amplified solutions for a region where you just suggested we're looking at 8"-12" across the board, and you're not sure as to why? Do I have that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What a frigid airmass this will be preceding this potential. Below zero to single digits the night before and highs in the teens and twenty's the day of. 850's look do be -10 to -15C. Bomb making ingredients, To bad there is not some blocking to slow it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What a frigid airmass this will be preceding this potential. Below zero to single digits the night before and highs in the teens and twenty's the day of. 850's look do be -10 to -15C. Very similar to Jan 2005. The biggest key is getting it to phase a bit with the energy up by Hudson Bay if we are aiming for a bomb here, otherwise its going to be more like a SWFE or quicker redeveloper....something like the GGEM and other earlier runs of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Let me make sure I'm understanding your question: I'd like for one of the more consistent models this winter to show a fraction of the total QPF that would likely translate to warning criteria (since it currently barely shows much at all) in order to line up with those members of guidance suggesting more amplified solutions for a region where you just suggested we're looking at 8"-12" across the board, and you're not sure as to why? Do I have that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 long time lurker-NNE poster with a desperate mby question. niece is getting married saturday night in northern NJ. Sister is freakin with family flying in friday. What is the best guess on timing for nyc metro? TIA (I keep quiet in here because my weather knowledge pales in comparison). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 nam is starting to look like its going to have the bomb Not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 long time lurker-NNE poster with a desperate mby question. niece is getting married saturday night in northern NJ. Sister is freakin with family flying in friday. What is the best guess on timing for nyc metro? TIA (I keep quiet in here because my weather knowledge pales in comparison). I don't know why your sister is freaking with family, or why you've chosen to tell us this, but I'm thinking that the morning part of Friday would be preferable to the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not this run. Yeah, it's trying to make a run for bombogenesis. Note that I said "trying". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Let me make sure I'm understanding your question: I'd like for one of the more consistent models this winter to show a fraction of the total QPF that would likely translate to warning criteria (since it currently barely shows much at all) in order to line up with those members of guidance suggesting more amplified solutions for a region where you just suggested we're looking at 8"-12" across the board, and you're not sure as to why? Do I have that right?Gfs has been a consistent model this winter? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gfs has been a consistent model this winter? Seriously? I'm sorry, what was I thinking in stating my opinion. Please, allow my to excuse myself and proceed to regale me with your objective and never idiotic "analysis." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ugh it was close its the nam at 84 but still would have liked to see something better then that and by the looks thought it would be Im more curious to see what the GFS does at 12z Not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro pull a Dec 29th evolution, where it shows a bomb 3-4 days out on 1 run, then loses it...only to return to something close within 48 hours. Just pure conjecture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know why your sister is freaking with family, or why you've chosen to tell us this, but I'm thinking that the morning part of Friday would be preferable to the evening. I'm sorry, what was I thinking in stating my opinion. Please, allow my to excuse myself and proceed to regale me with your objective and never idiotic "analysis." I take it you didn't sleep well last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM looks flat/progressive. Obviously not in its wheelhouse yet (if it has one!).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm sorry, what was I thinking in stating my opinion. Please, allow my to excuse myself and proceed to regale me with your objective and never idiotic "analysis." please post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know why your sister is freaking with family, or why you've chosen to tell us this, but I'm thinking that the morning part of Friday would be preferable to the evening. concern about flight delays/cancellations. Thanks for your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Check it out: Jan 05 had a significantly more potent vortmax and more sharply digging northern stream, but resemblance is there... And similar very cold antecedent air as you all remember. Jan 05: 12z Nam: Jan 05: 12z Nam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gfs has been a consistent model this winter? Seriously?Which model should we lean toward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm sorry, what was I thinking in stating my opinion. Please, allow my to excuse myself and proceed to regale me with your objective and never idiotic "analysis." I actually agree the GFS has been pretty decent this winter. Its had its troubles like any guidance does, but definitely better than the usual beating it takes from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM looks flat/progressive. Obviously not in its wheelhouse yet (if it has one!).... Some would suggest that it is "trying" to create a bomb. Please see Typhoon Tip for the approved definition of bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well it might not be anything huge down in DC. I'm mobile so I'll look harder when I get back...I still think you'll get some snow. I'm talking for Caroga Lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Very similar to Jan 2005. The biggest key is getting it to phase a bit with the energy up by Hudson Bay if we are aiming for a bomb here, otherwise its going to be more like a SWFE or quicker redeveloper....something like the GGEM and other earlier runs of the Euro. In some respects yes. That airmass was a bit colder at the surface. I was like -10F the morning before. Crazy. I like where this stands with the models right now. That northern s/w. imo, is acting like a block(confluence) preventing this thing from running up to Toronto. I think the GFS is a bit too suppressed right now. Cold bias coming into play. Who knows, maybe we get a Euro solution but right now I'd play it middle of t he road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm talking for Caroga Lake What are you, some sort of ebony Lorax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Which model should we lean toward?At this point? None. But knowing GFS SE bias as we do we certainly shouldn't be humping that from the rear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm talking for Caroga Lake I know, the euro still gave you several inches. With all the models in disagreement, I don't think we'll know until tomorrow aftn at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I hope we can salvage something up here, but storms that give the M.A. to SNE good snow are usually fringes here. I like this location on balance, but I have to root for changeovers to rain from NYC to BOS now. So let me get this straight. I leave the cursed land of the Mid Atlantic....come north to the usual promised land, and DC will get their first significant snow of the season and I'll be bone dry. Seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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