CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well all models Don't have a 06 run like the gfs has, but it is alone right now. The ensembles still aren't very bullish. Canadian ensembles also look like a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Also remember the euro tends to overamplify too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah ensembles look a lot like the CMC... probably toss the Op ECM and the Op GFS as outliers on either end of the spectrum. CMC has a SWFE appeal with WAA push of snow followed by dryslot. No real CCB to speak of, but a nice moderate 4-8 incher. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0zA/f102.gif Euro ensembles (51 members) had a bomb near the bm per Scott N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Whom are you guys referring to? No one here (and not ORH or my posts) is calling for a Jan 2005... but the evolution is similar as depicted in last night's Euro. Show me the post that is "going with the snowiest, most extreme model". Not referring to that...its more Blizz's when will people learn to toss the least exciting model, lol. The GFS is the eastern outlier, but the ECM is also the more amped up outlier with a close to full phase. A couple days ago it was still the amped outlier, but much further northwest from where it is now (giving snow to N.NY across NNE). That's all. A more smoothed mean of the ensembles seems to be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Also remember the euro tends to overamplify too. Yeah the OP does that quite a bit. A few days ago it was still the most amped model of all of them (the runs that were changing SNE over, with good snows back to Syracuse, NY). The whole evolution has shifted eastward a lot, and the ECM remains the most amped. But if the ensembles are right with it, then it's probably onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not that I'm comparing but comparisons to 1/22/05 have been made by some. For that event, the euro locked it in from d5-6 and the gfs whiffed us until a 36 hour lead time when the models came into line. So we may have to wait another day or 2 before we have gfs/ecmwf on board together. Wednesday 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah the OP does that quite a bit. A few days ago it was still the most amped model of all of them (the runs that were changing SNE over, with good snows back to Syracuse, NY). The whole evolution has shifted eastward a lot, and the ECM remains the most amped. But if the ensembles are right with it, then it's probably onto something. No run had substantial parts of sne changing. None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this storm is going to be pure fluff in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not referring to that...its more Blizz's when will people learn to toss the least exciting model, lol. The GFS is the eastern outlier, but the ECM is also the more amped up outlier with a close to full phase. A couple days ago it was still the amped outlier, but much further northwest from where it is now (giving snow to N.NY across NNE). That's all. A more smoothed mean of the ensembles seems to be the way to go. lol... I realized I had a backwards interpretation of your posts... it was a busy night tracking Winter Storm Jove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Like the Jan 05 comparisons. Not saying the outcome will be that anomalous or anywhere close, but similar setup and evolution as I posted 3 nights ago. Euro had similar solution 3 nights ago (1/19/13 0z). Reappearance of this robust solution after 3 days (and after last night's nor-turd has passed) adds some confidence I think. Chrisrotary posted yesterday that the Jan 2005 analog had jumped up to #2 on the CIPS list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 My #15 analogue from yesterday has moved. All the way up to #2! http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&map=COOP%20SNOW&sort=FINAL I like where this is going. So far. Here was his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The euro ensembles had a strong low and they are the better guidance but ive seen them fold before. The gfs to me is too flat, euro probably too amped.....i think something closer to the euro but Not nearly as amped up may be the way to lean. We still are like 96 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It gives BOS near 1.4" of qpf. ORH an inch of qpf. Will, what if any qpf total for Caroga Lake area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That 0z Euro run was ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Will, what if any qpf total for Caroga Lake area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Chrisrotary posted yesterday that the Jan 2005 analog had jumped up to #2 on the CIPS list. Awesome... Yeah I have that Jan 2005 blizzard archived like no other storm. I looked at the old H5 maps 3 nights ago after that 0z Euro run 1/19 and that monster 0z GFS run 1/19, definite resemblance as I posted. Obviously not expecting it to be anywhere close, but it lends confidence we'll get something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 100%. No shame in my game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 100%. No shame in my game.You talking about Caroga Lake, NY? In the central southern adriondacks? 0z EURO looks pretty dry in that area. Euro snowmaps dont show anything. I still think that area could do well in this storm as I dont believe the north trend is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 No run had substantial parts of sne changing. None. lol... not to play this game, but to be fair like 5 days ago this was a cutter. Then it started coming SE and this thread was born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And the 6Z GFS is a near whiff for the entire I95 area up and down the coast. We toss.Phil said it best awhile back it is a cape/se New England pattern.Lets see how this goes but I don't love the multi day trend. This was once a clipper NW of us that's gradually gotten pushed further and further se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Any idea what it has up here for QPF? Do I need more of a NW tick in order to get in on the good stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol bickering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol... not to play this game, but to be fair like 5 days ago this was a cutter. Then it started coming SE and this thread was born. These threads are created because there is a specific threat on the horizon, not becasue of a specific location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol... not to play this game, but to be fair like 5 days ago this was a cutter. Then it started coming SE and this thread was born. The truth probably lies in the middle as we have seen this year, At least this one has room to go NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Any idea what it has up here for QPF? Do I need more of a NW tick in order to get in on the good stuff? You should not even concern yourself this far out about qpf, Lets get the storm here 1st, We can work out the other details when we get closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Any idea what it has up here for QPF? Do I need more of a NW tick in order to get in on the good stuff? I would not even look at that right now. If this system comes even remotely close to a Euro solution you will do just fine. Just monitor the evolution of the s/w's coming out of Canada and how they interact, Euro actually phases them giving us a SE MA blizzard. GFS keeps them separate, hence the "suppressed" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The truth probably lies in the middle as we have seen this year, At least this one has room to go NW Middle of the ocean? Kidding aside we will see today whether the slide se continues or we are reaching the goalpost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Middle of the ocean? Kidding aside we will see today whether the slide se continues or we are reaching the goalpost I think the slide may be over, If we can get a partial or full phase, If we continue to see the bomb scenario, For the most part no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You should not even concern yourself this far out about qpf, Lets get the storm here 1st, We can work out the other details when we get closer in I would not even look at that right now. If this system comes even remotely close to a Euro solution you will do just fine. Just monitor the evolution of the s/w's coming out of Canada and how they interact, Euro actually phases them giving us a SE MA blizzard. GFS keeps them separate, hence the "suppressed" solution. ok - thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I hope we can 'unpin' the obs thread from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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