Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 25-26 Storm Potential


powderfreak

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The wundergorund maps do look a bit more wound up right near the low center than the WSI maps...so it brings the 850 line a bit further NW....difference is nothing back W for most of the region, but out there it would flip verbatim on wundergorund maps....trivial at this point anyway

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE POTENTIAL STORM. PTYPE ALL SNOW BUT STILL COULD CHANGE IF STRONGER STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO SNE. TIMING OF SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE FRI WITH BRUNT OF STORM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A MODERATE SNOW EVENT BUT THIS CAN STILL CHANGE WITH MORE OR LESS SNOW AS WE ARE STILL MORE THAN 3 DAYS AWAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Congrats eastern folks!  I can't remember the last time eastern MA was modeled to be the jackpot........er.......wait a minute.....now I remember.:)

 

Seriously though, this is a really nice run for you folks.  Of course, I can think of a few of folks hoping for something a bit more amped.

 

Funny what the GFS has done to the system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

me and you  :lmao:

Congrats eastern folks!  I can't remember the last time eastern MA was modeled to be the jackpot........er.......wait a minute.....now I remember. :)

 

Seriously though, this is a really nice run for you folks.  Of course, I can think of a few of folks hoping for something a bit more amped.

 

Funny what the GFS has done to the system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty nice signal for this far out...

 

Weenie me out, but depictions tonight have some resemblance to Jan 2005 at H5 and track of Miller B...

 

0z GFS posted above

 

6 / 12 GEFS members have some kind of Miller B depiction

 

0z Euro:

attachicon.gif00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

 

0z GGEM:

attachicon.gif00zggem500mbHGHTNA180.gif

 

 

I'm still a bit skeptical of a full catpure phase E of MA like the Euro shows as the flow is quick, but that is how it would happen ala Jan 2005...looks quite similar in many aspect.

 

Like the Jan 05 comparisons. Not saying the outcome will be that anomalous or anywhere close, but similar setup and evolution as I posted 3 nights ago.

 

Euro had similar solution 3 nights ago (1/19/13 0z).

 

Reappearance of this robust solution after 3 days (and after last night's nor-turd has passed) adds some confidence I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really hope the gfs jumps on board at 12z!! Euro would make alot of people happy that wanted to go jump off a bridge last night

Not that I'm comparing but comparisons to 1/22/05 have been made by some. For that event, the euro locked it in from d5-6 and the gfs whiffed us until a 36 hour lead time when the models came into line. So we may have to wait another day or 2 before we have gfs/ecmwf on board together.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC ensembles/cmc/ukmet is a nice partnership.

The opposing party is gfs/nogaps.

Kind of like when the MLB all stars play some bright little leaguers.

 

Yeah ensembles look a lot like the CMC... probably toss the Op ECM and the Op GFS as outliers on either end of the spectrum.

 

CMC has a SWFE appeal with WAA push of snow followed by dryslot.  No real CCB to speak of, but a nice moderate 4-8 incher.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0zA/f102.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When will people learn..Ugh

 

 

I know..going with the snowiest, most extreme model is and will always be the best route. Some will just never learn to let caution go to the wind.

 

Whom are you guys referring to?

 

No one here (and not ORH or my posts) is calling for a Jan 2005... but the evolution is similar as depicted in last night's Euro. Show me the post that is "going with the snowiest, most extreme model".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...