Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:06 PM, CT Blizz said: Suppression is the only option with this one. Flow too fast you have to not worry about what everyone writes. you make yourself crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 3:29 PM, CT Blizz said: What would you say the chance of a total miss is? most tv mets for friday/Saturday storm is fairly confident on us getting accumulating snow. have not seen that consensus from them in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:10 PM, Ji said: does anyone up there believe in the Euro solution? I don't yet. -- RGEM and GFS are fairly similar over Montana at 48 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs/12/gfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.gif On 1/22/2013 at 4:13 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: you have to not worry about what everyone writes. you make yourself crazy. I think he thinks what's written here impacts what actually happens, it's odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 3:40 PM, ETauntonMA said: lol Enjoy http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005.plt.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005.grd.png Thanks for the helpful response lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I did it all for the ukie....c'mon...the ukie..:.c'mon....so Saki can take that cookie...and stick it up your.......: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said: I did it all for the ukie....c'mon...the ukie..:.c'mon....so Saki can take that cookie...and stick it up your.......: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said: I did it all for the ukie....c'mon...the ukie..:.c'mon....so Saki can take that cookie...and stick it up your.......: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said: I did it all for the ukie....c'mon...the ukie..:.c'mon....so Saki can take that cookie...and stick it up your.......: It's been a long winter folks... Remember when this thing was modeled into the Great Lakes and some mets thought the northern / warm tracks were more correct? womp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hah I wish.... THis looks more like Mr. Torch (Joe) and Scott and Phil would get the good snows at this point. On 1/22/2013 at 4:07 PM, dryslot said: Congrats albany.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:10 PM, Ji said: does anyone up there believe in the Euro solution? Get off my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 whats the use of the Euro and ensembles if they are wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said: I did it all for the ukie....c'mon...the ukie..:.c'mon....so Saki can take that cookie...and stick it up your.......: You all through shoveling your RPM snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's hard to buy either the bomb solution (confluence, PV lurking) or the primary taking it coast to coast and offshore well south (La Nada, hostile environment). Compromise would be either an open wave or partial redevelopment with a NW->SE stripe of WAA snows. If that happened I'd guess it would be more like a 4-8" instead of a 12-18". Hopefully euro holds serve and the compromise solution can be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:17 AM, weathafella said: And the 6Z GFS is a near whiff for the entire I95 area up and down the coast. We toss. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Its gonna be a Nantucket winter. I'm pulling for them again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Why? No reason, we toss. On 1/22/2013 at 4:29 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Its gonna be a Nantucket winter. I'm pulling for them again Eh, this looks pretty good. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:21 PM, HM said: It's been a long winter folks... Remember when this thing was modeled into the Great Lakes and some mets thought the northern / warm tracks were more correct? womp And some non mets were calling for a lake cutter and are now calling OTS. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:41 PM, ineedsnow said: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif i think that's old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:42 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: i think that's old Yeah that's Mondays 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ya it is ugh On 1/22/2013 at 4:42 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: i think that's old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM is further south. Grazes SNE coast. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:13 PM, ericnh said: most tv mets for friday/Saturday storm is fairly confident on us getting accumulating snow. have not seen that consensus from them in a long time. Still too early to tell imo. If they want to believe the Euro/GEM, sure. NAM/GFS give most of us a coating to an inch if that's what they're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:46 PM, Snow88 said: GGEM is further south. Grazes SNE coast. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Yeah, RGEM and GFS were pretty lock step at 48. GGEM looked a little more amped at 48 but it may be the maps I was looking at. NAM/GFS/GGEM are all in the same surpressed camp, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know...suppresion just isn't a huge worry to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Very similar to Jan 2005. The biggest key is getting it to phase a bit with the energy up by Hudson Bay if we are aiming for a bomb here, otherwise its going to be more like a SWFE or quicker redeveloper....something like the GGEM and other earlier runs of the Euro. Oh god - please don't ... I lived in Acton Mass at the time, which is midland Middlesex County, and got s*t from the storm. We wound up in some kind of negative node of a gravity wave, and at times were down to flurries. During the max 4-6 hours of the event, that banded bf'ing sat right over us from ~ N Chelmsford to N Marlborough. As the storm pulled away the deformation band that was NW of us (FIT-MHT or thereabouts) collapsed through and we went to 1/4 vis for all of about 1.5 to 2 hours, and that is when the majority of our 5 or 6 inches came from. If memory serves we had perhaps 2-3 on the front end, so no, not a total lost in total. But annoyingly under-performed and rather pedestrian in that band. People have really selective memories about the grandeur of that event because of their own back yards. Despite what it did for S-SE of me, it was not the storm of the ilk people thinking because of those screw zones. The "real" non-fraudulent beasts of yore get everyone - which is why Dec 1992 is kind of a fraud too. Where it snowed, granted, it was over the top and historical; but it was criminal where it didn't - torture. Eh, Dec 1992 would have been snowed more uniform/equally if the column was just a tick colder going in, so probably that one is an exception. I was trying to find that analog page from NCEP but Google keep directing to a D6 -10 analog, which I am not sure is the same product. I thought you could enter specific dates, interactively, and pull the analogs, but I may be imagining that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gotta admit i was excited when i checked the euro this morning and saw jan 2005 redux staring me in the face...but will keep excitement in check for now...liked that the ensembles agreed somewhat, at least to the tune of a moderate snowfall which seems more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:51 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't know...suppresion just isn't a huge worry to me.Pattern doesn't support it but to each their own I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crazy Brit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 4:51 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't know...suppresion just isn't a huge worry to me. Yeah I'm actually liking where most of the region sits right now. There's definite room for northern solutions. Suppression definitely cannot be ruled out, but I'm not really that concerned about it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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