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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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My leaching fields kicked the bucket and new ones getting installed beginning on Monday.  Worst week in the last two years for winter weather its sounding like of course...

One man's meat is another man's poison, as they say.

The skidder for cutting the falling-down old fir on our woodlot was supposed to arrive today (will see when I get home) and the excavator early next week for a tad of access work. With 12" snow OG and the cold wx, hardly could be better for freezing down the yard and skid trails. Of course the chopper is a part-timer, runs a snowplow for a nearly town as well, so lots of snowstorms means less wood gets cut (or, more likely, it takes more time to cut all of this rather small harvest.)

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Looks like it's trended south 500 miles in the last 7 days.

 

 

We'll see how guidance performed at verification time...luckily WSI archives 10 days back on their site for model runs, so we can check it. My guess is all guidance from 8-10 days out will be woefully too mild for next week when we look back.

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You're quick with this stuff - I want your input...incoming cold vs '11, '09, '05, '04? Thoughts?

 

 

1/24/11 had a very impressive one day shot...but this looks longer lasting than that. Like a solid 2-3 days. Better than anything Jan 2009 gave us (at least in SNE...Maine is a diff story) IMHO, and not quite as cold as 2004. 2004 is so tough to beat or even match...3 day avg temp of -3.5F here. :lol: Coldest 3 day stretch on record, so its historical.

 

 

2005 might be a good comp. I'll have to go back and check the numbers, but I think it might end up looking similar. We could peak out a bit colder than '05 just lookign at it, but hard to say for sure.

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You're quick with this stuff - I want your input...incoming cold vs '11, '09, '05, '04? Thoughts?

1/24/11 had a very impressive one day shot...but this looks longer lasting than that. Like a solid 2-3 days. Better than anything Jan 2009 gave us (at least in SNE...Maine is a diff story) IMHO, and not quite as cold as 2004. 2004 is so tough to beat or even match...3 day avg temp of -3.5F here. :lol: Coldest 3 day stretch on record, so its historical.

2005 might be a good comp. I'll have to go back and check the numbers, but I think it might end up looking similar. We could peak out a bit colder than '05 just lookign at it, but hard to say for sure.

Too early to go nuts but the duration of this looks impressive. With it hanging on the way it does and the positioning of everything I think even if the 850s moderate on Friday, the surface would likely be an ice box

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Too early to go nuts but the duration of this looks impressive. With it hanging on the way it does and the positioning of everything I think even if the 850s moderate on Friday, the surface would likely be an ice box

 

 

Yeah a lot will depend on that storm Friday...it wouldn't shock me though if it was one of those 1994-style storms (or hell, 2005) where its snowing at 14F in BOS if we keep the winds from coming onshore or stay light. The airmass will be very well entrenched by the end of next week, likely with snow cover all the way to the coast as well since that inverted trough should have a good chance to replenish any coastal areas that have lost snow or will lose it tomorrow.

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Meh...ECMWF was awesome before the short-term hiccup which had to do with the convective nature of the deform.

 

Our definitions of awesome must be different ;)

 

Outside of about 60 hours it was pretty clueless, at 72 it was 700ish miles away with the precip.  When it finally did come around to showing an actual hit at 24-36 it then overshot.  It did okay, but not the best storm for the king.  Ens were better.  

 

Goes to the point the other guys are making about the big moves the last few days in the systems next week.

 

The image on the bottom is offset by 3 hours.  The 72 hour was basically a non-storm anywhere.

post-3232-0-74714200-1358538826_thumb.jp

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I thought the cold was trending less impressive though?

 

Will it did up until about the 18th.  The only one I've seen that's come close to being specific and pretty well hitting the pattern is QVectorman.  Cold, then warmer, then the real cold shot.

 

I did doubt the severity of the cold and that is probably going to be wrong, but I think I did a pretty good job even 5-6 days ago highlighting the cold, warm up Saturday and then the cold again.  I was not sold it would lock in for a long period of time beyond next week instead favoring a warmer storm around the 26-28th before another cool down.  I don't feel that's going to be the case now instead thinking more of a straight cold pattern, but still cautious.

 

Back on the 3rd and 4th you and I went back and forth on the pattern.  I said many times the 18th-20th was the change, I don't think that's terrible - a 13-15 day lead for a hobbyist, some specifics be damned.

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Will it did up until about the 18th.  The only one I've seen that's come close to being specific and pretty well hitting the pattern is QVectorman.  Cold, then warmer, then the real cold shot.

 

I did doubt the severity of the cold and that is probably going to be wrong, but I think I did a pretty good job even 5-6 days ago highlighting the cold, warm up Saturday and then the cold again.  I was not sold it would lock in for a long period of time beyond next week instead favoring a warmer storm around the 26-28th before another cool down.  I don't feel that's going to be the case now instead thinking more of a straight cold pattern, but still cautious.

 

Back on the 3rd and 4th you and I went back and forth on the pattern.  I said many times the 18th-20th was the change, I don't think that's terrible - a 13-15 day lead for a hobbyist, some specifics be damned.

 

 

I don't recall exactly what I was debating you about, but I never argued for a mid-winter epic cold return by the middle of the month. I did argue that we could get snow events by then and that is exactly what happened.

 

I think I recall you saying that nobody in New England would see -20C 850 temps from this cold shot as well. We actually ended up getting -20C near the MA/NH border.

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