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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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uh oh...i think we're losing messenger. 

 

stuff doesn't look that bad. my god. 

 

 

We lost him a long time ago.

 

 

Hopefully 2/3 trends deeper. That was an interesting look, but it only benefits us if we get it even deeper...otherwise the further S vortmax actually gives us less snow than if it goes just under LI...which was the 1-3/2-4 scenario we had yesterday.

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We lost him a long time ago.

 

 

Hopefully 2/3 trends deeper. That was an interesting look, but it only benefits us if we get it even deeper...otherwise the further S vortmax actually gives us less snow than if it goes just under LI...which was the 1-3/2-4 scenario we had yesterday.

 

I think we've lost a lot of people to be honest Will. 

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I thought the GEFS improved again. Late next week or next weekend may be dicey, but the overall look isn't that bad at all.

Yeah a certain improvement with the +WPO signal being further west into Russia. If we can manage something like that which keeps the heights higher downstream near Alaska/western Canada sector, then you guys can make out well with the storm threats picking up. Sure that vortex/stratosphere will suck all the major cold air to the other side of the NH, but you can get away with it in the Midwest/New england...its not like we were making out well with the brutal cold in canada anyway, so, why not. Definitely hoping the euro ensembles take a step away from alaska as well.

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NCEP says about average temps, wetter than normal.  Euro ENS have 1 or 2 decent threats inside of 7 days.  Now or never?

 

814temp.new.gif

This is the kind of year that we could get something ramp up bigtime inside 84 I would think.  That map would imply a ridge in the center of the country - that would suck for us wouldn't it because wouldn't that put the trough axis at a bad angle for us to get anything to develop?  Or would it imply swfe events were some of us stay cold?

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Pattern going forward is really tough to predict...not just the usual snow, but the temps too. We knew the last 10-12 days of Jan and early February would be cold...or at least had pretty high confidence it would be from a couple weeks out. But this upcoming situation for mid February and beyond looks nasty from a forecasting perspective.

 

The models show somewhat of a relaxation around Feb 9-12, but this easily could end up being more normal with a bit of a gradient....then guidance tries to rebuild the +PNA pattern...esp the GEFs, but now even the 00z Euro ensembles did it at the en dof their run, pumping up the heights over AK and NW Canada again in the D13-15 time range.

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I love the flip flops in guidance. Rather amusing. What happens when the TC near Madagascar dies?

 

Head over to philly medium range for more but how long until the C PAC cools down as well and things consolidate in the IO? It's classic model mayhem, enjoy it you sick bastards. :P

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Eh' still about 50% snow cover W of the Ct River along the Rt 2 corridor.  Sad but refreshing to see after two days in the tropics of the CP.

 

My woods are decimated but front yard still a few inches of cover and weenie piles.

 

N facing and shaded neighborhoods obviously fared much better.

 

37F w/ occasional flurries.

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